It’s been very eloquent so far, hasn’t it? Euro 2004 was all over the place. But Euro 2008 has, in a remarkably short space of time, told you a lot about the footballing nations of Europe.

Let’s start with the Dutch. Ruud van Nistelrooy says that his team’s form has taken him by surprise. It really shouldn’t have. Holland were, right from the start, the best side in Europe. The only thing that was stopping them from being favourites was that, while the Fink Tank expected them to reach the quarter-finals, there was still a 43 per cent chance of them being eliminated at the group stage because of being the drawn in the same pool as France, Italy and Romania.

Now that this risk is behind them it is possible to see just how strong Holland are. They had an 11.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament when it started, but now they have a stonking 24.6 per cent chance. Remember, of course, that this still means that there is a 76 per cent probability that the whole thing will end in disappointment for them. But remember, too, that the side with the next biggest chance has just 17.2 per cent.

That side is Spain. And we have been taught something about them, too. There is a good deal of nonsense talked about them not “performing on the big stage” or whatever. The truth is that you can be very good indeed without actually, say, winning the World Cup – that’s what probability is all about.

Now, France, Italy and Romania. The least surprising result to date, as far as the Fink Tank was concerned, was that these three teams drew with each other in low-scoring encounters. Romania, to start with, are very good indeed. It is they, and not Italy, who should have been disappointed with the 1-1 draw last Friday. And not just because of Adrian Mutu’s missed penalty late on. They should have been disappointed because they are actually a better side than Italy. Yes, Italy won the World Cup, but you can win that trophy without being anywhere near the best side in the world. And that’s exactly what Italy did.

The fact that France were hammered by Holland is far more surprising than the goalless draw against Romania. France cannot score, but they have the best defence in the competition.

Apart from Holland, the team that should be most satisfied with how they have performed in the competition so far is Portugal. They started with just a 4.6 per cent shot of lifting the trophy. A big reason for this was that they had only a 49 per cent chance of making it through to the quarter-finals. Now that they have guaranteed their presence there after two games, their trophy chance has risen to 9.6 per cent.