Graphic: by a herr's breadth

Greece. When I die and they cut me open, they will find Greece carved on my heart. At the beginning of Euro 2004, I confidently opined that Greece had no chance of winning the tournament. From this I learnt two things, and I am sharing my humiliation with you so that you can learn them, too.

The first lesson is that no one at the outset of a competition has a zero chance of winning. What I meant is that Greece had less than 0.5 per cent of a chance, which is a different point entirely.

The second lesson is that, in multiple team tournaments with a knockout element, the odds are quite widely spread. Not only does this mean that the favourites are unlikely to win, it also means that a very unlikely outcome is possible. In Euro 2008, there is more than a 30 per cent chance that it will be won by a team whose victory would be greeted as highly improbable.

Next week, the Fink Tank will present the Castrol Performance Index - the most sophisticated attempt made to track player contributions. For now, as usual, the Fink Tank has been tracking the goals scored and conceded by international teams over the past five seasons and have used these to help to simulate Euro 2008 over and over again. The graphic shows the outcome of this work.

Germany are favourites. This still means that they have got an 85 per cent chance of failing to win the tournament. They owe their status partly to the draw. Germany are only the fourth best team in the competition and are only 91 per cent as good as the best side (Holland). They are not, however, in the “group of death”.

Because Holland have been drawn with France, Italy and Romania, they have only a 57 per cent chance of reaching the quarter-finals, while the less good Germany have an 80 per cent shot.

The other reason for Germany's high placing is their attack. Germany are a flair team - good at scoring goals, poor at keeping them out. Holland, on the other hand, are better at defending than attacking. France are superb in defence but find it difficult to score. They are thirteenth in Europe in attack, as good as Turkey.

How would England have done? They are the fifth-best in Europe and that meant a 10 per cent or so chance of victory - among the favourites. But it also meant a 90 per cent chance of disappointment.