Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter
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Billions of people across the world face hunger, severe water shortages and displacement as a result of increased temperatures, an international panel of scientists and politicians concluded yesterday.
In its second big report this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that more extreme weather including hurricanes, typhoons, droughts and flooding was to be expected as a direct result of global warming.
The report, accepted by more than 100 national governments and designed to guide policymakers worldwide, gave warning that Britain and Europe could expect more heatwaves like that of 2003, which killed several thousand people in Paris.
It added that wildlife was likely to be devastated: a 3C rise in temperatures is predicted to make up to 30 per cent of all species extinct and a 5C rise up to 70 per cent. The report predicted that Africa, Asia, the Southern US and Southern Europe would suffer a crash in crop yields when temperatures rise by 2C, widely expected by the middle of the century. On the other hand, rises in summer temperatures combined with increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Hemisphere could bring improved crop performances. Britain and Northern Europe, Canada, and parts of the USA and Russia could, said Professor Martin Parry, who co-chaired the study, improve harvests by up to 15 per cent.
Hunger and malnutrition are predicted to be afflicting 500 million people by the end of the century. There are already 500 million people short of food, but improvements in farming and technology would cut that by half were it not for global warming, the panel said.
For the first time the IPCC accepted in its Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Report for Policymakers that man-made climate change was having a global impact. When it last reported in 2001 it recognised limited regional consequences but this time it said that the evidence pointed towards impacts on a global scale.
Professor Parry said of the report’s conclusions: “What they have done is established that at a global level there is a man-made climate signal coming through in plants, animals and water supplies. This is the first time that we have confirmed this signal.”
Agreement did not come easily and the final session carried on through Thursday night into yesterday morning. Three scientists made formal complaints after delegates from the US, China, India, Saudi Arabia and Russia refused to accept a handful of their conclusions. Several scientific delegates walked out temporarily in protest at what they saw as political interference.
The panel foresees trees such as the horse chestnut and silver birch coming into leaf earlier in the season, patterns of bird migrations changing and alterations in insect distribution. It now agrees that physical effects such as the disappearance of the Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia are caused by man rather than localised and cyclical climate variations.
The areas expected to be worst affected are the Arctic, where the ice is predicted to melt over the next century, Sub-Saharan Africa, which will become even more arid, and the Asian mega-deltas, where extreme weather such as typhoons combined with sea-level rises are forecast to be devastating.
The panel said that the poorest people were those likely to be hit hardest but wildlife was predicted to fare even worse. Entire ecosystems would disappear as the ice melted in the Arctic and the permafrost in the Arctic retreats, it said.
The report has recognised for the first time that acidification is causing corals, already threatened by bleaching from warming temperatures, to dissolve. Mediterranean regions and mountain biodiversity are equally at threat, as are habitats such as salt marshes and mangrove swamps, and effects are already being felt as water temperatures in rivers and lakes warm up.
The report emphasised the importance of countering climate change through adaptation. The IPCC still wants mitigation measures, those designed to drag greenhouse gas emissions down, but it believes that adapting to new circumstances will be far more effective for the first half of the century.
Dr Tim Sparks, an environmental scientist at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, welcomed the IPCC’s recognition that climate change was already having an impact. He said of the report: “If ever there was an alarm bell, then this is it. The authors give dire warnings, such as extinctions of a quarter of the Earth’s species, unless we . . . act to reduce harmful emissions into the atmosphere.”
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The responsibility for getting it wrong is far greater than the ability of primary polluters to repair the damage sustained by the ecosystem.
We simply will be forced to take responsibility for the results of our actions. Globally.
Nicholas, Auckland, New Zealand
Hey,
Shane here, Project RAFT Int'l..All this gloom and doom mixed with scientific fact is all pretty hair raising to say the least.
You know everywhere you read or watch you see some chatter about global warming but you seldom do we hear what are the solutions.
You hardly here what is being done to counter the effects of global warming. Why? Well one reason is that fear drives sales, internet traffic and TV ratings.
My organization and myself have a whole host of solutions that Im sure will create new businesses and help drive parts of the shattered economy say for example if agriculture takes a massive hit.
Through innovative research and findings algae holds so many promises. Food for human and animal consumption. Algae is also the number one producing oil crop meaning it can generate massive amounts of fuel for diesel applications.
Old Sea Containers are super strong and easy to build for the massive amounts of people who will flooded and who will need housing
Shane, welland, canada
The IPCC use a convenient "What If" factor in their predictions. For the disasters to occur they have factored in a rise of 3 degrees C over the next 50 or so years. But their own research which they only grudgingly publish shows that over the last 100 + years the average temperature increase globally is 0.75 degrees C.
They still use the outdated "hockey stick" graph which shows the temperature going North faster than if they used a different method, but this suits their cause which is calculated to alarm gullible politicians who will keep them in the life style they have become accustomed to, and to hell with all the carbon produced as they swan around the World to conferences.
We can expect more extreme weather events, we are told, and Katrina is given as an example of more to come. But the 2006 Hurricane season passed with a murmur in comparison, and 100 years ago, New Orleans was devastated so Katrina wasn't anything new.
There is still only SPECULATION that man causes change.
Harry Kennard, Peasmarsh, England
Because most of us have brains Matthew.
Paul, Rochester, UK
Let us for the sake of discussion, assume that the article is correct in every detail. Does anyone say what the benefits of warming would be? Cold related deaths would go down-good. More water vapour from the increased sea area-more rain-good. More land that cannot be used because of cold available for cutivation-good. More water in the oceans, more fish-good That is just off the top of my head. Todays assignment, think of more.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Texas
Van West takes the easy way out when faced with a problem too big to deal with easily - pretend it isn't happening. Unfortunately, if your house is burning down the flames will get to you whether you believe in them or not, and you give up the chance to call the fire brigade. Umpteen thousand of the world's top scientists have just agreed that our house is burning down. The analogy breaks down there, because in this case, if we don't all (or almost all) agree that global warming is a dire threat to the existence of the human race we won't be able to do enough, quickly enough to stop it.
Now will you please wake up and start dialling 999 (or in your case 911)?
Bill Linton, London,
can it also be part of the us setting off aproximately 1300
atomic boms and the russians the same plus the rest of
the countries also.action and reaction moving the earth that little bit closer to the sun.
drjh, alpena, mi.
In spite of the warnings of the 'its all our fault' climate lobby the earth will continue to get warmer quite independently of our actions. The influence of the sun's activity and changes in our orbit round the sun will completely swamp the relatively minor effects of increased CO2. In spite of Al Gore's lecture on this topic, global warming from other causes has invariably LED to increases in CO2 and not the other way round.
The sensible thing is to work on methods of combating global warming - not waste our resources in ineffectual attempts to stop it happening.
Anthony Back, Wellington, Telford, England
It is frightening and sad to think that our children and grandchildren will suffer . In the case of Chile, I have read that the forest of one of the most beautiful areas in our country is in danger. I hope the scientists work together to find a way to revert this situation together with the governments of the world.
rosalva, santiago, chile
Every day I think about earthquakes, global warming, trees going away, The constuction all around me the concrete jungle the vast distruction of trees and increasing sales of cars, stocks going up. Houses shirking, life becoming easier. New products on the shelf. I cannot understand how I can stop myself. Stop from buying chemicals, stop from using petrol, stop from using plastic, stop using sparys, stop using a fridge which is said ot emmit CFC's. I just feel every day I am degenerating this earth and not giving back. Can't we plant a tree every year by each student in each school in each country. Can;t we employ groups of 10 poor people per square kilometer to pick up plastic waste and supply to plastic manufacturer. Can't we stop manufacturing plastic, can't we just do away with petrol and pump in reasearch in Solar power. Can I not get fresh air to brethe. Can't we understand that we must stop multiplying and multiplying.
Aparna, Bombay, India
In case the alarmists missed it, Mars is having a minor global warming itself, the southern ice cap is less than a few years ago. Why? Could it be the sun? Solar flare activity, etc. causing the earth to warm? Of course not, cause Al Gore couldn't continue to be the huckster he is if that were the case.
van west, indianapolis,
some coutry just cann't see beyong his nose.what they only want to achieve is the economic benifit regardless of their actions threating the ecosystems .i only hope that any efficent messures can be taken before it's too late.
Transbill, guangzhou, CHINA
The report shows this time we all are in the same boat,Americans,non Americans, Blacks, Browns and all the rest have to find a scheme to mitigate the effects of the warming. It means perhaps governments will be forced to call for more intergovernmental meetings to devise a modus operendi, however imperfect. We cannot hide our faces in the sand any more because our whole house is on fire..
asit k.sen, houston, tx, u.s.a.
The current state of the Earth, in which vast areas, including the entire continent of Antarctica, are rendered uninhabitable to humanity because of the presence of billions of tons of ice, is not the usual or natural state of the planet. The Earth is in the last stage of an unusual (Ice Age) event and soon the remaining ice will have melted and we will be able to re-claim vast areas of the globe for human settlement and resource extraction.
The recent (past few thousand years) of low levels of CO2 in the atmosphere is also a rarity for our planet. Throughout the bulk of geological time CO2 levels have been much higher and the planet has been warmer. This meant that plant life, which uses CO2 for growth (photosynthesis), was more prolific and the animals that relied upon plants for food were more abundant and successful. This in turn assisted the process of Evolution, which has greatly promoted the successful habitation of the planet by our varied life forms.
Arthur Gibson, Melbourne, Australia
Simple solution: Just raise the gasoline tax in the US to $8.00 a gallon
Jim, Tulsa, OK
My thought is that it sounds as though the planet would be far greater off without humans, therefore the great alarm over all this confuses me?
Cliff Knight, Saint Augustine, USA
This is like a waking nightmare. Why arent more people in the UK taking this seriously as the global emergency it is rather than treating it as some minor lifestyle issue. When ecosystems collapse and millions of people are at drought risk, we will not come out of this lightly. If the climate doesnt get us, the wars will.
Matthew, London,
A free democratic combined with free economic society could bring high level living come along with greenhouse gas and emissions. A powerful tycoon is equal to a powerful politician who has always been seeking more money and power. There is only a way that we could keep up our presently high technology and reducing emissions .
Living with a type of internet mixing with horse as a transportation to creat a new form of lives.
Ben Hsueh, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Why don't we listen. ? it is frightening to think that people are so shortsighted so that they bury their heads and rpetend this global warming will heal itself. It is like a cancer gone wild. We have to do something soon.
Dina O'Sullivan, Edina, Minnesota