Term may have ended for Scotland’s politicians, but we know better than to expect a period of silence from them this summer.
With parliamentary business behind them and elections ahead, they can now immerse themselves wholeheartedly in the far more entertaining pursuit of persuading the electorate to re-elect them.
Jack McConnell, the first minister, has already made a head start by launching his idea of a charm offensive. The photographers have been round to Bute House to snap him gazing into the middle distance, and the McConnell mission statement has been given a few dummy runs before captive audiences.
It’s desperate stuff, but with only 305 campaigning days to go and grim predictions from the most recent polls — the SNP taking a two-point lead over Labour in both first past the post and regional list voting intentions — Labour needs more than a rabbit to pull out of the hat.
How timely, then, that Tom McCabe, the finance minister, was able to locate an extra £800m this week to spend on public services between now and May 3, 2007.
In maths that McCabe himself probably can’t follow, the miraculous appearance of so much money was explained as the executive’s underspend, which has been accumulating in Treasury coffers at Westminster.
Normally it is not required because the nearly £30 billion Scotland gets a year is embarrassingly ample and projects have to be invented to get rid of some of it. But now, in the run-up to an election, there are suddenly “spending commitments” and “ambitions” that cannot be met by existing funds, thus the £800m.
Even for an election bribe it’s pretty blatant, but it pales into insignificance beside the Lib Dems’ latest sweetie. As revealed in this paper today, Nicol Stephen is planning to cut taxes if his party holds the balance of power come May.
A tax cut (or rise) is quite within the provisions of the Scotland Act, but it is the first time any politician in Scotland has actually proposed one. The move marks a volte face for the politically opportunistic Lib Dems, who previously threatened to raise our taxes. But despite qualms we may have about the Scottish Lib Dems’ trustworthiness, their tax pledge should be treated seriously. Last week’s Bromley by-election result has shown that the Lib Dems are an attractive proposition even without tax lures.
If Labour’s vote does disintegrate, their current coalition partners could be in a much stronger bargaining position than they have been after the last two Holyrood elections. Tax cuts could be the price they exact for their support, either of a diminished Labour party or a resurgent Scottish National party.
Stephen’s promise to lower the tax rate to “help households” would appeal to traditional Labour voters, who have seen no improvement in public services despite record levels of public spending in Scotland.
Council taxes have gone up by 50% since devolution, but councils continue to plead poverty whenever they fail to deliver. Where does all the money go? It may come as a surprise to many that the executive has had millions up its sleeve all along.
Pensioners who have been put on waiting lists to receive their “free” care, and who have been told for months that their councils are “cash-strapped”, will no doubt be astonished by the existence of, and easy access to, £800m. Social workers who say they can no longer meet politicians’ demands to improve care because of budget cuts will be stunned to learn of a seemingly bottomless pit at the Treasury. How can this be, when councils were underfunded by £135m a year for children’s social work services and when there has been persistent underfunding of these services for some considerable time?
Money is thrown at the health boards in Scotland, but waiting times grow longer. State schools receive almost as much per child as private schools, yet seem incapable of producing 14-year-olds who can read or write properly. Teachers are threatening to strike because class sizes are too big.
The public services in Scotland are a poor advertisement for enormous public spending. They are a good argument for tax breaks: if government can’t be relied upon to spend our money wisely, why shouldn’t we have more of it ourselves to manage?
Stephen has also said he intends to reduce business rates to give Scottish firms a competitive edge and attract entrepreneurs north of the border. But this measure would be undermined by his party leader Sir Menzies Campbell’s plan to sting the super-rich. The Ming initiative, unveiled in the Commons three weeks ago, also advocated “raising taxes on those who pollute the environment”, but a Scottish administration would have no power to increase fuel duties.
There are many details the voters will need to know before they can decide if the Lib Dems’ tax cuts are a good prospect for Scotland as a whole, and not just for their pockets. How would a lower rate of tax be paid for (other than from underspends) and how would it be collected in Scotland? Would there be an increase in the tax threshold, which would take millions of people out of tax altogether?
But by putting tax on the agenda, the Lib Dems have driven a significant wedge between themselves and Labour and thrown down a gauntlet to the other parties. And they have put McConnell in a terrible fix. However much he struts the stage in Scotland, Labour’s campaign will be controlled from London by Gordon Brown and the new Scottish secretary, Douglas Alexander, neither of whom love him much.
From London’s point of view, tax breaks for the Scots would compound any anti-Scottish feelings among English voters who already think they subsidise Scotland. The last thing Brown wants is to further alienate that bit of little Britain that has been grumbling about the Caledonian creep into English life. How then would Labour be able to form another coalition with the Lib Dems in Scotland if tax cuts were a precondition of the deal?
If Labour couldn’t work with the Lib Dems, and couldn’t work without them, Scotland’s political landscape could be unrecognisable by this time next year. And McConnell’s dream of four more years as first minister will have turned to dust.
