Jonathan Richards
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In the heart of Silicon Valley, at what is referred to, somewhat romantically, as the 'web's edge', something is stirring.
A new type of internet is being imagined, far more powerful that the one which lets you link up with your friends or watch a video uploaded by a stranger.
Facebook, YouTube and the other social networks and blogs that fall within the scope of 'Web 2.0' may be beginning to penetrate the mainstream, but to those whose Cassandra-like vision lets them see the web in 2020 and beyond, they are but a pixel in a much larger picture.
In a little over a decade, according to the engineers building the internet of tomorrow, the web will be able to connect every aspect of our digital lives - be it a website, an e-mail, or a file on our PC - to every other aspect. It will know, for instance, when you are typing an e-mail, what the subject of the e-mail is, and be able to suggest websites and books as well as documents, photos and videos you have saved that may be relevant to that topic.
It will be achieve this by virtue of the inherent 'intelligence' in the underlying architecture of the internet, they say. In other words, the web is becoming smart.
Nova Spivack is an evangelist of the next phase of the web's development - what Silicon Valley, with its expansionist zeal, has taken to calling Web 3.0, or 'the semantic web'.
Broadly speaking, Mr Spivack says, Web 3.0 refers to the attempt by technologists to overhaul radically the basic platform of the internet so that it 'understands' the near infinite pieces of information that reside on it and draws connections between them.
If Web 2.0 was all about harnessing the collective intelligence of crowds to give information a value - lots of people liked this story so you might too (Digg.com), people who like Madonna also like this artist (last.fm), lots of people linked to this site so that makes it the most relevant (Google's basic PageRank algorithm) - then Web 3.0 is about giving the internet itself a brain.
For those still a bit lost, Mr Spivack, the founder of Radar Networks, a leading Web 3.0 company, says it's useful to think about the web's development in ten-year cycles.
"We have had the first decade of the web, or Web 1.0," he says, which was about the development of the basic platform of the internet and the ability to make huge amounts of information widely accessible, "and we're nearing the end of the second decade - Web 2.0 - which was all about the user interface" and enabling users to connect with one another.
"Now we're about to enter the third decade - Web 3.0 - which is about making the web much smarter."
Each decade in turn corresponds to an engineering focus on either 'the front end' or 'back end' of the web. Web 1.0 was a back-end decade, focusing on the web's basic platform, its link structure and navigation system. Web 2.0 was front end, with a heavy focus on users and usability, clean-looking sites, and people making connections with one another.
In Web 3.0, the emphasis will revert to the back end, with a renewal of the web's key index - the essential data that is catalogued by search engines like Google. That in turn, Mr Spivack says, will make way for Web 4.0, another 'front-end decade', only with more advanced programs than the likes of Facebook.
A prime example of a Web 3.0 technology is 'natural-language search', which refers to the ability of search engines to answer full questions such as 'Which US Presidents died of disease?'. In some cases, the sites that appear in the results do not reference the original search terms, reflecting the fact that the web knows, for instance, that Reagan was a US President, and that Alzheimer's is a disease.
"Our engine reads every page of the web sentence by sentence and returns results by drawing on a general knowledge of language and what specific concepts in the world mean, and their relationship with one another," said Barney Pell, chief executive of Powerset, which is developing natural-language technology. The firm, based at the prestigious Palo Alto Research Centre, in California, is sometimes talked about as a Google-killer, should its offering - which is not yet widely available - become popular.
It's not just search that will be overhauled in the web of the future, however. One of the recurrent themes in the presentations at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco was 'open platforms', the idea that a website or device, like a mobile phone, should be able to accommodate whichever features or applications its user wants. Think of the iPhone as a folder into which an owner could 'drag and drop' any application - a weather forecaster, an e-mail service - without Apple having to approve such an action.
Some of the world's largest technology companies - Nokia, Apple and MySpace - all made announcements embracing the idea of open platforms, suggesting that the web will become a place where much more mixing and matching of different services will be permitted.
Alongside this will come more mature virtual worlds, or what Silicon Valley's faithful - perhaps to get away from connotations of the computer game - have started referring to as 'immersive environments'.
"The web is going to be a much more immersive, a much more multi-dimensional environment," said John Doerr, one of the founding board members at Google and a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, which invests heavily in the tech sector.
Mr Doerr's presentation touched on a range of areas that would be affected by the web, in particular green technologies and the energy sector, as well as disease therapy, and he gave stark warning to any firm that was not willing to embrace emerging trends. "In any real revolution there are winners and losers. The internet wasn't some kind of 'kum ba ya' thing," he said.
When the time came to pack up the projects and exchange the last business cards, there was a sense - as there was seven years ago - that Silicon Valley was riding a wave of seemingly limitless investor confidence, begging an obvious question.
"Are we officially in a bubble yet?" one of the conference moderators asked, repeatedly.
No one was willing to answer. In the meantime, the vast sums of money to be made and the new services to change people's lives, radically and everywhere, were both things to be celebrated.
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Web 2.0 has paved the way for applying real world contexts to the web and Web 3.0 will be an extension of this into everyday life.
As the article says, data will be given context to become more useful and more "intelligent". Traditional input / output devices will be replaced with more personal, mobile devices that better integrate with our everyday lives.
And while we develop the web to better integrate with the real world I suspect we too will change to make better use of the web. We are already seeing new social and working models appearing from Web 2.0.
Paul McDonald, Anglesey, North Wales
Web 3.0 will be driven by a new hybrid of innovation strategies that support a new business model. In the new models businesses will make quantum leaps because they will finally discover that fostering new ideas and empowering their employees by ethically compensating them for their intellectual property, makes more sense than the current business-as-usual rewards for hard work: pizza parties! It will finally dawn on companies to spend more money supporting the flow of ideas than pouring down the drain with outrageous severance packages and counter productive levels of disparity in income. My new business Innovation Synergy Groups is trying to cultivate a new approach and a new awareness. Hopefully the wheels will turn fast enough to help us bring more traction to the Green efforts as well as helping any other organizations ready to embrace what real change can bring.
David Fleming Jr., Minneapolis, MN, USA
Dave Fleming, Minneapolis, United States/Minnesota
Re the following quote, very bad and misleading way of looking at the web's development:
"For those still a bit lost, Mr Spivack, the founder of Radar Networks, a leading Web 3.0 company, says it's useful to think about the web's development in ten-year cycles."
The development of technology is accelerating at an exponential rate. What took 10 years to happen last time around is going to take much less time, now.
Furthermore, this article speaks of a lack of insight about many of the potential future developments of the web. Brain Computer Interfaces have been around for more than 10 years already.
Don't you think we're going to see a collision between something like this and the Internet sometime soon?
devin holloway, mountain view, CA
A cracking read: Web 3.0 is a world some are certainly yearning for (okay, only *some* of us!). But letâs take a cautious helathcheck on the optimistic timeline.
Other academics see a different Web 3.0 though, one that fuses online and offline experiences and data into an augmented reality. Joel de Rosnay has been posturing this in a big way - www.digitalstrategyconsulting.com/thoughtleaders/2007/07/joel_de_rosnay.html - and the differences, though subtle, are more than surface deep. For Rosnay, Web 3.0 could mean dropping down the visor and watching the data flow over the lens; if that sounds a little too sci-fi, then how about packets of traffic and weather data floating gently from the chips in your windscreen? Look at it like that and it starts to feel more comfortable.
Whichever way you read it, Web 3.0 will be taking us a lot further towards the novels of William Gibson and further away from the years of keyboards and mice weâve all endured while growing up. Bring it on!
Danny Meadows-Klue, London, UK
I have always wished for a search engine of next generation that would give the most relevent results depending on various factors.
Say, an engine asks me to fill out a form based on which my account is created.
Now it keeps the track of kind of articles most read by me.
The results depend on my country, religion, occupation and even the time of the day i search!
So next time i would recieve the most relevent stuff the next time i search.
The meaning of India is different for an Indian and different for someone else, so why get the same result?
[this was just an example]
Varun Arora, Delhi, India
Doerr is funny. His statement comes down to "Buy from us or perish."
Revolutionary changes don't often come from where the mass is looking. The status quo resists change and nature conspires against intelligence. It comes from where few are looking and that few are struggling for their lives in some cause shared quietly if reluctantly by many.
The cause of the Internet is sharing yet sharing has created many problems with identity theft and other social illnesses. The problem is then protection, not sharing. The next web is not an open web, but a cloistered one of many walled gardens where the contract is not how widely shared information is, but how safe and protected it is. The rise of the city was the rise of a gated community in the beginning.
Breeders don't tolerate fence jumpers kindly.
Len Bullard, Toney , Alabama
I was working in AI at IBM 20 years ago. We believed natural language parsing was possible and would arrive. Nope. It still hasn't and won't within the timescale of Web 3.0 either nor Web 4.0
Me, I'm still waiting for Web 1.0 Service Pack 1...
Pete Morris, Dorking, Surrey