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The housing market experienced its most severe downturn since the housing slump of the 1990s last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) will say today.
More surveyors saw house prices fall in February than any other time since June 1990. The RICS gauge of house price trends fell to minus 64.1 per cent last month, down from minus 54.8 per cent in January. In June 1990, the balance was minus 64.5 per cent.
There was also evidence that activity in the housing market has stalled, as RICS said that stocks of unsold property on surveyors’ books jumped to a ten-year high. The average number of unsold properties per surveyor rose to 92, up 8.5 per cent from January, and an increase of 48.6 per cent since February last year. This is the highest figure since 1989, when the number of unsold houses averaged 93 per surveyor.
Ian Perry, of RICS, said: “The build-up of unsold stocks will encourage buyers to negotiate lower asking prices.”
Surveyors reported that house prices fell most sharply in Yorkshire and Humberside, the East Midlands and East Anglia, while prices in London, Wales, the North and North West declined at a more modest pace.
Tighter lending criteria and uncertainty about the economic conditions have also weakened demand among buyers, RICS said.
The balance of surveyors reporting a fall rather than a rise in new buyer inquiries was 37 per cent, up from 35 per cent in January.
The big exception to this trend is in Scotland, where the gauge of house prices soared to 25 per cent, up from 7 per cent in January.
Grant Robertson, of Allied Surveyors in Glasgow, said: “After a period of readjustment, some normality is returning to the market.”
Property sales increased marginally to 24.4 per cent, up from 24.3 per cent in January, but this was still 14.3 per cent lower than the number of completions in February last year.
The gloomy figures come as the head of one of the UK’s largest housebuilders gave warning that thousands of jobs will disappear in the construction industry unless the base rate is cut sharply. Malcolm Harris, chief executive of Bovis, said the housing market was at a “tipping point” as he warned of thousands of job cuts across the industry unless interest rates are reduced from 5.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent by the end of the year.
In a trading update, Mr Harris reported that his company’s forward order book at the end of last week was 20 per cent down on this time last year.
Mr Harris said: “We need interest rates to come down to 4.5 per cent to assist affordability. There should have been a quarter point cut last month. If [buyer] confidence does not come back and demand not improve then the whole sector will have to reduce operations. Our suppliers will have to lay off people and we will lay off people. That will lead to an economic slowdown.”
Suppliers range from carpenters and bricklayers to carpet fitters.
The slowdown in the housing market has already hit Bovis’s annual pretax profits, down £12 million to £123 million for the year to December 31. It sold 2,930 homes, 193 fewer than the previous year.
In the last housing crash of 1989 to 1992 construction workers were able to find some jobs in the commercial property market where recession only began in 1992. This time round both the housing and commercial property markets are feeling the squeeze at the same time. Bovis has trimmed back its borrowing to just £44 million, meaning gearing it is at an historic low of just 6 per cent in anticipation of a tough year’s trading ahead.
Region by region:
Proportion of surveyors reporting changes in price over the past three months
North-39%
Yorks and Humber -64%
North West -41%
East Midlands -70%
West Midlands -62%
East Anglia -61%
South East -53%
South West -55%
Wales -49%
London -40%
Scotland 25%
Northern Ireland -95%
Source: RICS
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With the price of petrol rising,I think it will become more difficult to use your car as security for a loan.Never mind,theres always the good old bike.
stephen hulton, eure, france
As a pensioner, the last thing I need in a situation of rising prices is to have interest rates drop! I rely on interest on my savings to help me pay my bills.
Andy, Whitchurch,
About time these shady property industry fed websites are held accountable for the bad information they provide with obvious reasons to talk up a falling market.
Even today they are talking the housing market up.
Any buyers out there who are uncertain please be wary over what you read from some of these people please stick to trusted sources.
Sam, Windsor, UK
Dear Sir/Madam
States Economies cannot be built on bricks and cement. and it houses don't make a nations wealth Look at the Japanese example of the 1990's. The whole economy collapsed and is still suffering because of house prices.The same is happenining in the USA and in the UK right now. The most healthy economy is the German economy because it does not create wealth on house prices but on production of goods and services.
The BOE should keep the interests unchanged to help create real economy stability and not an economy based on house prices.
NICHOLAS XENOPHONTOS, LARNACA,
We're at the end of the very end, there's nothing left in the pot. Today's economy is based on yesterday's speculation; speculation based on an economy supported by debt; debt borrowed by the stupid who are not clever enough to see the end. Its pay back time, nobody is going to like it, but it's going to happen. But it's not all doom and gloom, aparently you can take out loans against the value of your car using your log book as deposit, maybe there's still hope for those who helped to create this mess!
Wayne, london,
It's amazing that Scotland is so out-of-step with the rest of the UK. According to the latest statistics from Lloyds TSB, prices in Edinburgh fell 5% in the last quarter and they fell 4% in Aberdeen - yet here we are seeing Scotland as the one and only place in the UK where surveyors have seen a rise in prices! This somehow makes no sense.
Prices in Scotland are far out of line with salaries and Edinburgh, in particular, has had a ridiculous boom. Prices in Edinburgh are now on a par with the much more overcrowded South-East of England despite an average local salary of 24k. Yet still the prices climb - when is sanity going to return to Scotland?
MB, Edinburgh,
Even BOE lower its interest rate which not easy when oil price is high, US dollar is week (oil prices traded in US dollar), inflation every where is on the up, we will see that the potential are still reluctant to pay for the house prices. why the UK housing market is far over valued, income does not rise on the same pace, continuous job cuts - no longer afford to pay .
Linder, London, UK
Do we still need 3 million more homes now?
MarkS, Leeds,
The economy is larger than Bovis. An arrogant statement by Mr Harris.
Clive, London,
Average families on average incomes live in average houses in the UK. At some point in time prices will return to the average long term level.
Less immigrantion, reduced credit availability, small number of job losses, increased inflation, negative sentiment, modest BTL returns, boom in apartment building, less willingness to take on a large mortgage etc, etc.
House prices in the UK are set at the margins of affordability and speculative return. All the things that made the boom are no longer present.
I am not convinced about the limitation of supply, I see limitations of affordability; house prices will drop!
Costas, Cyprus,
If Bovis wishes to increase its sales it should lower its prices - simple as that. With Sterling weak and inflation high and rising, the very LAST thing the UK needs is more rate cuts. As for 'job losses', these will mainly be among Polish migrants who are starting to return to their country, where house prices, salaries and living standards are all rising. I suggest that Mr Harris starts learning Polish, then he can cash in on the developing Polish property bubble.
Paul, Coventry,
Strange, I thought we couldn't concrete over the countryside fast enough to keep up with demand?
Bob 1, London,
Look on the bright side, it should help the Olympic program as there will be no shortage of workmen.
Keith, Ashford,
When will people learn that interest aren't set to serve the interests of the property market ?!
Sofie Nears, Oslo, Norway
The housing market is crashing. Very obvious. Long predicted. Now actually confirmed by the various statistics (all of which are backward looking, so it has been going on for some time).
In this context, there is something very creepy and dishonest about the comments from property industry professionals. The man from Glasgow lauds rising prices as "normality". The man from Bovis Homes says "we" need interest rates to come down. No. He (not we) wants (not needs) interest rates to come down. And the Bank of England should decide, not special pleading from one industry.
If any other industry tried to foist this kind of nonsense on the punters they would be howled down. Can you hear the director of a large supermarket or publisher trying to dictate to the Bank of England, or praising their own rising prices?
Roderick Random, London, UK
Would you look at N. Ireland. -95%. Unbelievable that there are still those that claim that the housing market in N.ireland is still buoyant.
James Craig, Belfast,
You will always have the people who talk a market up all the way to the bottom. It is in their best interests. What makes me laugh though is all the mugs now calling for rate cuts to keep the market "buoyant". Where were the rate rises whilst prices where hyperinflating? But it's ok because oil and food are flying up in price now. Or is that the wrong kind of inflation?
Rate cuts will do nothing. It's like pushing a piece of string. Banks aren't going to start lending more cheap money during a credit crunch .They need to make provisions for all the bad debt about to come flooding in from overstretched borrowers who stupidly thought prices only ever go up.
Edward, London,
This return to sensible values is long overdue. Lets hope the BOE remembers their job is to protect against inflation and not to prop up this house market. Whining estate agents, building companies and other vested interests should be ignored.
This is very good news for first time buyers.
Ian, Bedford,
Would you look at N. Ireland. -95%. Unbelievable that there are still those that claim that the housing market in N.ireland is still buoyant.
James Craig, Belfast,