Rebecca O’Connor
Get 20% off your bill at Pizza Express

The threat of a sustained downturn in the housing market grew yesterday after a leading investment bank forecast that property prices would fall for the next two years.
Goldman Sachs said it expected house prices to fall by 5 per cent this year and a further 2 per cent in 2009. The bank had originally predicted a decline of 3 per cent in 2008 and no further change the year after, but became more pessimistic after economic warning signs.
The predictions came as another set of bleak figures showed that first-time buyers were spending the highest proportion of their income on mortgage interest repayments since the recession of the early 1990s.
Leading economists gave warning of a “very real danger” of a sharp housing market correction that could lead to recession, after findings from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) showed that interest on mortgage repayments is eating up more than a fifth of the average disposable income of a new homeowner.
The proportion of income that a first-time buyer spends on mortgage interest was 20.7 per cent in December 2007, compared with 17.9 per cent a year ago. The figure has not reached this level since 1991, before the housing market crashed in 1992.
The CML said that the size of the average home loan also rose, from 3.34 times a typical first-time buyer’s income in December 2006 to 3.38 times at the end of last year.
Experts blamed tighter mortgage lending in the wake of the credit crunch and interest rate increases between August 2006 and August 2007 for the squeeze, dismissing claims that further cuts to the base rate will solve the problem.
Banks and building societies have been cutting back on the amount they are willing to lend, as well as increasing mortgage rates, after last year’s US sub-prime mortgage crisis left them facing chronic funding shortages.
Howard Archer, chief economist at Global Insight, the economic analyst, said: “The data highlights the downward pressures on housing market activity and prices stemming from stretched affordability and tighter lending practices. While the Bank of England’s trimming of interest rates in December and last week will help matters, the overall downward impact on mortgage rates has been limited by a lack of funds for lenders, as well as lenders wanting higher margins due to increased risks.
“There is clearly a very real danger that a sharp housing market correction could occur. Conversely, a sharp housing market correction would increase the risk of recession.”
Goldman blamed tighter credit conditions, falling house price expectations and falling mortgage approvals for its downbeat outlook.
The bank also revised downwards its forecast for the number of property sales it expects in 2008, after weak trading updates from housebuilders showed that forward orders were down by more than 10 per cent. It expects property sales this year to fall by 16 per cent, after a previous forecast of a 10 per cent decline.
The CML yesterday called for the Chancellor to raise the Stamp Duty threshold, after it found that only 40 per cent of first-time buyer properties fell under the current limit of £125,000.
The number of surveyors reporting falls in house prices grew for the sixth consecutive month for the first time since the early 1990s housing crash, new figures show.
A total of 54.7 per cent more chartered surveyors saw lower house prices in January than those who reported rises, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.
The figure was up from 49.1 per cent in December and has soared since the 3.1 per cent balance last August, providing more evidence that Britain is experiencing a housing market slow-down.
Last month’s balance is the highest since the 60.1 per cent recorded in November 1992, when the measure grew for five months running.
Government figures released yesterday showed a rise in average house price in December, from £218,662 in November to £219,591.
Squatter's rights ruling hits home
Mortgage defaulters could face a tougher stance from banks after judges wiped out the debt of a man who had not paid anything towards his arrears for more than 15 years.
Banks have given warning that the Appeal Court ruling in Djabar Babai’s case may force them to take early action against debtors.
The last mortgage payment made by Mr Babai was £40 in January 1993. Because of the bank’s delay in taking action, however, the Appeal Court ruled that he had acquired squatter’s rights over his £200,000 home in Stockport, above, and that NatWest’s security was worthless.
Justin Fenwick, QC, for the bank, said that lending institutions could now be forced to issue possession proceedings “where they would not otherwise have done so”.
Lord Justice Mummery said that it was “an alarming, but unlikely prospect” and said that the practical implications of the decision “are in danger of being exaggerated”.
Mr Babai was made bankrupt in March 1993. The bank took no legal action to enforce its rights.
Lord Justice Mummery said that there should be no difficulty in lenders taking action “within the ample 12-year limitation period”.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Explore your passion for food with the delights of Thai, Indian & Chinese cooking
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£100k
The National Skills Academy for Social Care
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
£75k - £85k
Confidential
London
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
$3.5 million
Also avaliable for rent
Times Online Property Search will help you find it
Amazing Far East Offers - Visit Hong Kong
from £499pp
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
7% .......... Ha he must have recently bought a property and is talking his own book as we say in the stock and shares market . Prices are going south and the real people are talking 30-40 % correction ......... All those out there looking to buy there first property do not listen to what the estate agents are telling you and dont listen to the developers offering Once only deals because if you buy now you will be sitting on anything between 20 and 40 % lose in a few months.. Its happened in USA and they had the same so called experts saying saying it will slow to 3 or 5 % increase over the next 2 years.......................... NOT ! we are already seeing 30 % corrections in popular tourist destinations Florida etc and there are very many British who are now sitting on Thousands of dollars loss.
If you live in a world that says prices will only go up and never down you need to go into a farmers field and make a noise like a sheep. SAVE YOUR MONEY BUY around sept for minus 30%
Ally, london, UK
yes the price of property is going to decrease the only thing that is keeping them where they are are estate agents, the banks , building societies they say they will drop by 7% they are lying through their teeth.
i agree with these others ,that due to the expense of everyday living it is too difficult to have a mortgage ie oil price increases which affect food, goods, travel etcetc
yes the prices should fall i hope by 20%
a number of well known american financial gurus have said this within the last couple of months.
it would be good for the market and good for people who cant afford to buy at these overinflated prices.
adam b, london, england
7% more like Norfolk 20% and falling
John Alam, Norwich,
Many do not realise that current repossesion sales eminate from proceedings commenced almost 1 year ago when the economy seemed to be in good shape.
With the current situation there is going to be a massive increase in repossessions. The Courts have been lenient in many instances which merely prolongs the inevitable.
Once evicted it is the Local Authority who must house them. This is another massive cost which falls upon the community. The whole thing is an absolute disaster . Hopefully we will soon join the Euro as there is little stability in the Pound Sterling.
Vernon Cooper, Yeovil, United Kingdom
only 7%?
You must be joking!
riccardo, brussels,
Affordability hit dangerous levels before end-2006. That had nothing to do with the crunch. People seem to view the high multiples and low deposits as normal...that was a mis-pricing of risk.
The implication of current events is therefore that we are just returning to reality i.e. there is not actually anything to fix i.e. now we are pricing risk properly. Our vulnerability at rates of 5.75 v 5.25% is highlights the problemâ¦.
NR/ subprime in the US and here are symptoms of the problem, and not the problem, as many think. Like any pyramid scheme the credit/ asset markets only work if there is an unrealistic assumption about being able to carry on to infinity.
If mortgage payments and income multiples are at record levels and were too high in 2006, then how come the same VIs carry on saying FTBs are returning as "affordability is improving"?
No access to funds and over pricing of houses means no it is not. An interest rate cut will not help.
Raj, London,
Correction means to put right. A correction is GOOD. The use of this word is an admission that prices are too high. The boom over the last few years has caused considerable damage to our economy. The gullible public has lapped up all this tosh about the huge wealth we have in our houses and borrowed like crazy, while FTBs, caught up in the BTL frenzy, scared that it could be their last chance to buy have borrow huge sums.
Houses cost half the price in Germany and there is no question who is wealthier. The UK housing boom has made a few individuals rich but will ruin the lives of many. Mr not-so-prudent Brown claimed to have orchestrated an economic success story but in reality he created an economic time bomb.
Liam M, Newcastle, Tyne and Wear
Jason, Bournemouth. You forgot to mention that this only works if you own a property outright (ie no mortgage). A simple look at interest rates over the past 20 years will show that these have ranged from under 4% to close to 15%. How many people could cope if their current mortgage payments trippled? 20 years is a long time in economic terms and lots can happen. You might as well advise people to see the rollercoaster ride through to the end, even though they will be required at times to unhook their safety harness whilst upside down. Some would make it, but many more would fall out. For many people, selling now before the market completely tumbles will make very good sense.
George, Brighton, UK
There is a swing towards the probability that house prices will fall but we have to live somewhere and in the long term of course unlike shares your house can't ever become worthless.
More important at the moment is the energy and food inflation reaching levels before unknown. Land of course will increase in price as farmers, who are now raking in the cash due to food shortages and high prices continue begin to snap up more land.
Don't get confused by the so called money experts just use your own simple logic and you won't go far wrong.
Trev Moore
Mr Trevor N Moore, GOSPORT, UK/Hants
If you have something to sell, say something important like a house, then you can expect to wait for a few months. If in that time prices continue to fall, then any potential buyer can see that they would save themselves perhaps thousands of pounds just by waiting. Thay may say to themselves... 'When will this end ? And so the first time buyer who props the whole market up is quite likely to sit on his deposit for quite a long time. Eventualy this might even reach the point, like all markets, where house prices become TOO LOW
David Nammory, Liverpool,
what a load of codswallop
property moves in a cycle and we are moving into or have already entered a period of the market self adjusting itself after a long period of rising prices
as someone correctly said, prices cannot ALWAYS go up
once its corrected itself (and yes that could mean a drop of even more than quoted) it will go flat for a period until prices start to rise again as the world around us gets more expensive due to inflation. (i remember crisps at 10p a packet in the 80's, and they're now what? 60p or more?)
some say this has nothing to do with house prices, and directly, maybe not. but what about the materials to build new houses increasing in price - this HAS to increase new build house prices over time and then it WILL filter down to 2nd hand stock
Then back to todays situation, completing the cycle
it really isn't rocket science
just hang on for the ride and you won't be disappointed
get off and you'll be gutted in 1/10/20/30 however many years
Jason, Bournemouth,
Reply to Chetas - your comments do not reflect any of my peer's positions! Our mortgage repayments on our humble 2 bed terrace cost 30% of our net income on an interest-only basis. We bought at the lowest end of the market as first time buyers with a good deposit. We very rarely go out to eat, in common with the majority of our friends/neighbours. We held off buying for a year only to see prices continue to rise. If the market does crash then it will affect our future plans for starting a family and getting married so I have my fingers and toes crossed that prices remain stable.
Gemma Robinson, Evesham , Worcestershire, UK
Mortgage payments for most people dont even make up 20/30% of income.
It can go two ways. either massive drop or mortgages taking upto 50% or more of home pay. ( In London, I reckon flats will suffer the most, rather then 1million + property)
I personally think people will realise that wasting money on eating out 5 times a week, catching 5 min taxi rides that cost £20 etecetra as a waste and use that money to buy the house they always wanted...
chetas patel, croydon, surrey
Anyone who bought a house in the last year only has themselves to blame, a downturn in housing prices has been inevitable for a couple of years now to anyone with a modicum of financial sense understanding affordability. To all those in in this situation, batten down the hatches and ride it out, in ten years time house prices will be higer then they are today. Best of luck to you.
darren, london,
I'm always amazed with the certainty of the predicted percentage falls presented in headlines of this type. No question that prices are on the way down, but why only 7%? No one predicted accurately how high prices would rise, so why pretend to know far they will fall. I've taken to automatically adding a zero to any figure presented by vested interests trying to calm a crashing market. Down 70% (over 5 years) sounds feasible.
Clive, Chichester, UK
7% that's nothing. Lets hope it reaches 30% then the BTL scum will really bay the price for there anti-social behaviour.
Paul Angove, Leeds,
What goes around comes around... Over the last 6-7 years who hasn't been into a beer garden only to see the great and the good tanned masses talking about their latest material possessions cost them and how it didn't matter because their house is making them twice as much.
Giving it the Big 'Un, these people thought they were morally good because they were consuming at ridiculous levels and oblivious to value they believed they were not liable because "house prices always rise". Where was or has the absolute real value been put into our economy over the past 30 years? Meaningless jobs for a meaningless civilization and our governments, hands tied by political expediency and crass naivety have either sat by or actively encouraged our lack of enterprise and work ethic whilst the East have taken over what we have failed to do.
Be prepared to work for the Chinese and a much reduced standard of living - no more fancy holidays, no more convertibles, no more Largin' - wakey, wakey.
Chairman Mao, Shanghi, China
This was always going to happen, prices just can't keep going up; the increases have been incredible and have continued rising at these levels over a ten year period The fall could be very sharp indeed given the dramatic and unprecedented rise in prices and as many buy-to-let players sell to take the profit in the market. Meanwhile, who is going to consider buying a house in this market?
José, madrid,
What! No rebuttal from the Halifax, claiming 10% price increases in January?
Stuart, sheffield, UK
It is now becoming clear that all those 'experts' who have been saying that everything is alright because there is a shortage of supply are either fools or liars or both. It would have been hilarious, were it not for the fact that a multitude of people will now face financial ruin because they relied on the words of these charlatans who care for nothing but their own pockets.
anthony, london, england
Prices tripled in ten years and no one bothered. Now because we are faced with a slight readjustment, there is panic in the streets. Am I the only one thinking that the estate agents are behind this?
Hamad Lone, London, England
lol.
alan, london, dc