Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Correspondent
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A sudden drop in mortgage approvals recorded by building societies has sparked fears that the long-awaited correction in the housing market is about to begin.
The value of new approvals by members of the Building Societies Association (BSA) fell to £3.9 billion in April, its weakest level for nearly two years. The fall from March’s figure of £4.6 billion was the sharpest drop since September 2004.
Mortgage approvals are widely seen as a pointer to the next step in house prices, and the data yesterday was the clearest sign yet that the Bank of England’s four interest-rate rises since August are taking their toll on homeowners.
However, hopes that a housing market correction could mean that rates will not rise beyond 5.5 per cent were dashed yesterday with the publication of worrying new figures on the money supply.
M4, or broad money, grew by 13.3 per cent in the year to April, up from 12.8 per cent the previous month. The Bank tracks the money supply as one indicator among several of the underlying scope for inflation in the economy.
Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said: “April’s figures would seem to add to the growing likelihood that interest rates will rise as far as 6 per cent.”
Other mortgage data out yesterday presented a mixed picture of the property market. Data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), seasonally adjusted, showed that lending stayed in a relatively narrow range in the first four months of the year. However, the CML said that a “modest slowing in activity” was now due following higher rates.
The British Bankers’ Association said that underlying net mortgage lending rose by £5 billion last month, slightly slower than in March and below its recent average of £5.4 billion.
Unsecured personal borrowing was unchanged overall in April, compared with a fall of £100 million in March.
David Dooks, the BBA’s statistics director, said: “High house prices and increasing monthly repayment costs are causing a slowdown in the mortgage market and people are using money from their accounts instead of borrowing to meet their spending needs.”
Marchel Alexandrovich, of Dresdner Kleinwort, said: “Overall, the expectation is that we will see weakness in the housing market numbers in the next three to six months, and we should see weaker price inflation. The question is how low we go.”
Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, said last week that it was much too early to say that the housing market had begun to slow.
However, the Bank’s Inflation Report found that high levels of debt meant that interest-rate rises could have a larger impact on mortgage holders than in the past.
It also noted that households refinancing fixed-rate mortgages were beginning to feel the pinch, as the average quoted rate on two-year fixes has now climbed above its level of two years ago.
Mr Alexandrovich said: “If the Bank overtightens, there is a risk of quite a severe effect on the market and the economy.”
Adrian Coles, the BSA director-general, said that weaknesses in disposable income growth and high inflation had cramped people’s saving rate. “Against such a background, it is imperative that people ensure that their finances can withstand any futher increase in interest rates,” he said.
This week Rightmove said that asking prices for homes were up 13.1 per cent in the year to mid-May, down from 15.1 per cent the month before.
Peter Newland, of Lehman Brothers, said: “All in all, leading indicators of housing activity – including approvals and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors sales-to-stock ratio – have started to hint at a peak in housing activity, although it may take some time before this feeds into house-price measures, and it is unlikely to be much cause for concern for [monetary] policymakers.”
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What to do?
I have just come into a 70,000 GBP deposit so I can start to think about buying a starter home for my family, but I would have to stretch myself and worry that it's the wrong time to get into property. I know that waiting doesn't might seem a good idea, but what if all the predictions of a crash are wrong? I'll have even less buying power then.
Glum, Bristol,
I think there will be a slowdown for certain but can't see much of a drop. Demand is still outstripping supply, people who have brought properties (like me) don't sell them ... they are Let which further drives demand. Personally, I'd love a big drop because the next day I'd go out and buy 10 properties. So would many other people...this will also hold prices up. The market would undoubtably recover (if there was a drop) but like any investment you need to be in it for the long term.
Richard, Wickford, Essex
Labour promised that under them we were not going to see a return of the boom and bust economy - oh really? Good old Labour, they've done it again - inherited a strong economy just to mess things up and NOW, to add insult to injury, we are going to get the guy who got us into this mess as leader - HELP!
Andrea, shipston on stour, England
Definitely going to be a bumpy ride over the next 12-18 months for
homeowners and investors as they see prices dropping. Those over extended will be selling in a falling market and you could see a biggish drop before the year is out, with more to come in 2008. Property is generally overpriced and has been for probably the last five years or even more, so there has to be a day of reckoning. Brown will doubly look to drive house building particularly in affordable housing sector so there will be additional pressure on prices here. If you are not on the ladder I fancy your chance is coming as prices fall away; which in the long term is good news.
Mike C, Cardiff,
Is everyone really that gullible.
The reason that approvals have gone down is that the LENDERS have decided that a property is not worth an agreed selling price.
Logic dictates that it is the lenders who 'price' property.
Any applications that are outside 'normal' borrowing e.g. more than the allowed multiple of earnings aren't processed.
As an older bank manager said to me many years ago 'a property that you wish to buy will always be woirth more to you than it is to a bank'. It seems that the 'other lenders' are catching up with the need for 'real bricks and mortar security'..
J D S, Cardiff, Wales UK
The media influences house prices and in my village in the North East the average price of a 3 bed semi is £185000-5 months ago it was £175000. However, people are still putting houses up for sale at 10% increase on that. There are houses on the market which have been there for over 6 months at least. The only buyers seem to be those in rented properties who are not in a chain. They don't realise that it's becoming a buyer's market and they shouldn't panic, hold their nerve and put in low offers.
Stottycake, Durham, UK
Oh please. We heard all about first time buyers being priced out vof the market in 1988 and a few years later those who had saved and waited were able to buy houses at much cheaper prices as the prices dropped. It will be the same again this time.
Anna Naz, London,
The truth is that nobody knows what will happen to house prices. The reason prices are falling outside London is that all the young have gone south and so there is an over supply but there will always be a shortage of housing in London. There might be a slow down now as interest rates kick in but in the long term property always goes up no matter how slowly but for first time buyers their pay will go up too so it wont seem so bad. Trust me I have been around long enough to have seen it all before.On a positive note it will be a relief to see the end of all property programmes on T.V.
D.R Liverpool, Formby, Merseyside
So how come Halifax have taken 2 weeks longer than expected to issue my mortgage due to the fact that they have too many to process at the moment? Housing crash? Doesn't sound like it to me.
Nick S, Twickenham, England
We are ultimately the cause of a potential property crash. Whipped up into a frenzy by helpful media reports, we all rush off in bleeting droves and put up for sale signs.
Don't want a crash? Don't all jump at the same time.
nemo, Bristol, UK
Supply and demand dicate house prices. Whilst some downward pressure may be put on the housing market by current interest rate increases, demand still appears to outstrip supply particularly in popular areas (eg London and the S East).
Historically interest rates are not excessive. Employment levels and the availability of credit have remained high and stable.
Unless rates go significantly higher, say 7-8%+, I cant see the housing market suffering any significant crash.
Barry, London,
Prices go up because demand is so high.
Demand is high because we all think prices go up.
We all think prices might go down so demand falls away.
Prices then go down.
But bricks and mortar stay the same.
I love markets.
That is all.
Ed, London,
We have had our NE London house on the market for 2 months now. We gathered from friends, neighbours and estate agents that 'we would have no problem selling such a lovely property'. We had 12 viewings in the first 10 days, and considerable interest, but over Easter and the May Bank Holiday when 'people view houses' hardly anyone came into the agent's office, and in the last 2 weeks we have had 2 viewings, despite bringing our price down. Maybe we did over-price, but all the local agents are saying that this slow down applies to all the area's houses. I suspect that the media's coverage is at least a month out of date, and that the slump has started.
John, Buckhurst Hill,
When will someone tell the whole truth about the housing market? We are constantly being fed false information about price increases. In London and the South in general prices are holding, but elsewhere all over the country homes including new builds are being reduced in order to entice buyers. More homes are suddenly being put up for sale prior to the introduction of the HIPS on 1st June, this is having an effect on prices. When implemented the law will compel sellers to reassess their council searches costing between £80 and £300 every three months whilst their property is being marketed, I wonder what effect this will have on the market ? This governments taxation and pension policies, have caused the economy to be built and rely on a pyramid of house prices, which is now faltering. The gap between the have and have nots is growing alarmingly, those with homes priced beyond the reach of first times buyers are about to suffer the most. It seems to me Blair is going leaving major problems in his wake.
Patrica A Mallin, Sheffield,
A property crash is long overdue, buy-to-let landlords should start to sell up now as their "investments" will seem like liabilities in 6 months time.
stig of the dump, Watford, herts
Why do people have such short memories? Could it be greed? I live in Devon where the cost of houses are so out of reach for most people on an average wage of approx. 15K. Anyone who says it's higher than that doesn't live here! They clearly have to drop dramatically. House prices in the South West took a big hit last time round and , if there is any justice, they will again. in the words of the poet "history repeats itself... has to - nobody listens."
Ali, Exeter,
Why should the slowdown in mortgage approvals 'raise fears'? Surely a prime reason behind recent interest rate increases was to slow down the housing market. The only people who raise the fear issue are estate agents and mortgage lenders who can see the prospect of their inflated profits decreasing.
Better a moderate correction in the market now than a full blown crash resulting from the continuing over inflation of house prices stimulated by irresponsible lending.
Simon, Wells,
Why does your corresondent use the expression "fears of a slowdown!
Does he not know this is exactly what is needed?
Does he know what the consequences will be if there is not a slowdown?
These headlines stated without thinking really bother me.
Nic, Royan, France
I'm sorry but Tom Burleig of Eastbourne, on what do you base the notion that a 'drop in house prices will boost the economy'? Is this not a) a blunt and b) a more or less incorrect statement? For a start the wealth effect is much reduced, due to less relative withdrawable equity from a property, and couples with the nigh on 6% interest rates, the ever increasing (now over £1 trillion) debt in this country will prompt even larger monthly payments from all those embedded in it. Due to these factors alone I think it's safe to say that the economy will either hardly grow or possibly retract slightly in terms of growth rate, so i think your statement is rather erroneous and insubstantiated. And if i, a 17 year old can identify this, it is rather sad that you (presumably an adult) cannot.
hasanta, woking, bruv, surrey
Interesting that the posters Nigel and Gareth protesting against a 'correction' are from London and that others for one are from outside the international capital. Quite frankly if I was living at the very epicentre of house price inflation I'd be petrified of any talk of a crash too. PS I don't live in a caravan but I'll shortly be taking my savings and family and emigrating to a country where I can buy a home (not investment) for cash. I shall be watching developments evolve with some residual interest.
Steve, Salisbury,
Wait a minute... last week they said house prices were rising at £75 a day (London)... so I bought my first house...
Now they say they're going to fall... so I'm doomed!
I don't know which article to listen to!
Ian, Lancaster, UK
Steve, do you live in a caravan? Or are you saving up for one?
Gareth, London, England
Well, it was going to happen. Unfortunately the only winners will be the financiers. Hous eprices will drop this will boost the economy, as those struggling will have more free cash and less stress after 12 months.
Bring it on.
Tom Burleig, Eastbourne, East Sussex
I can just about afford the house I'm about to buy but if the market crashes I will be gutted of course. If I don't go ahead, it could just as easily become unaffordable in 6 months, or the market could crash and we could pick it up for cash. No one knows.
I'm not a property speculator, I'm not borrowing 6 times my salary, I'm just trying to do the best for my family.
Those like Steve that gleefully predict/hope for a crash don't know any better than anyone else, and you're frankly getting on my nerves!
Nigel, London, UK
The housing market was deflating in 2005 until the BOE decided (for no apparent reason) to lower interest rates. This resulted in the market once again gathering pace, people spending money like it was going out of fashion and this, in turn, has fed through to the economy as a whole. We are now beginning to see the effects of the BOEs folly in taking a 'vigilant' stance toward inflation as opposed to being aggressive. My question is, why isn't assett price inflation and M4 money supply growth taken into account when setting interest rates? Both of these create wealth from nothing which in turn feeds into the economy to the point of overheating and therefore causes a rise in inflation.
Darren, Sheffield,
Yeah!!! Come crashing!!
Michele, Richmond, Surrey
Although I am a home owner I am hopeful these ridiculous prices come to an end.
The equity in my house is of no value to me other than if I wish to emigrate or live in a tent.
My children will soon not be able to buy and my friends are leaving for pastures new, from where the most common email is
' you should see the mansion we have got for the price of our semi...'
Lucy, London,
I think so too - it's about time for a serious correction in the residential property market. When you read the article one could get the impression that there will never be a fall in house price - only a slow down of price inflation. Well - the market that only ever goes up still needs to be invented. The greed of BTL - landlords and the general obsession with property in the public keep the madness going for long enough now. Fasten your seat belt for a hell of a ride - DOWN.
Ulf, Nottingham,
Realistically, with the money supply growing at such a ludicrous rate as 13.3%, I think rates could easily go beyond 6%. 7-7.5% is more likely, and don't forget that the average long term interest rate in the UK is closer to 8%. It is very foolish to imagine that house prices cannot fall, especially as rates at even 6% will create a substantial number of forced sales. Just like the stock market, once sentiment turns against property, asking prices will fall through the floor, just as surely as they have shot through the ceiling on rampant speculation. Ask yourself, if house prices have risen nearly 300% in the last decade, what is so unreasonable about them falling back a mere 30% or so now? Corrections happen in every single other type of market without exception, so what makes people arrogantly think it will be any different with property?
James Batchelor, Leicester,
Will Hutton, if you were right then I will hug you being a litigation lawyer!
Pete Balchin , Bristol, uk
First the housing market started to fall over and then it fell over. About bloody time. It's going to be a wild ride!
Steve, Salisbury,