Stable world stock markets are fostering the dangerous belief that the storm is over and we can go out without a raincoat again. Not yet, we can’t.

A BBC presenter recently argued that, because the US Federal Reserve has said it will do everything “necessary” to resolve the credit crunch, newspapers were fretting unnecessarily. Okay, this was on the Chris Evans Drivetime programme so I’m not saying it was the last word in economic analysis, but it’s the way people are starting to think.

I don’t want to go into full-blown Cassandra mode, but I do urge caution.

Shares may not seem all that stable, but apart from one brief blip the FTSE 100 index has tunnelled between 5,500 and 6,250 since mid-January. It could go either way from here, but down looks the more likely.

Last Wednesday’s jump in share prices was triggered by relief at better-than expected results from Tesco in Britain and Coca-Cola, Intel and JP Morgan in America. That was yesterday’s news; the real question is the shape of tomorrow’s murky outlook.

One who claims to have some clue about the future is Tim Youngman, whose Ruffer European fund has risen 24% in the past year.

Either he has a crystal ball or he has been lucky, because his success seems to owe more to inspiration than perspiration.

Youngman and his team claim to have spotted the looming sub-prime crisis early, cashed in much of the fund’s shareholdings and used index “put” options to hedge against the rest as rules prevent a total sell-out.

He is now going for pan-European shares involved in solar energy or in soft commodities such as rice, wheat or coffee. Sounds promising. Youngman is clearly someone to watch, and I have made a note to check his performance a year from now.

However, investors will desert him in a flash if he shows the slightest sign of losing his magic touch.

Tough tactics

I mentioned last week that banks are ignoring Bank of England interest-rate cuts, but it’s worse than that: they are in effect putting a gun to borrowers’ heads.

No sooner had Andy Hornby, HBOS chief executive, wiped the crumbs from his lips after Tuesday’s breakfast with Gordon Brown than he blew an almighty raspberry at the prime minister’s call for cheaper borrowing. HBOS raised the rates on new trackers and fixes by a hefty 0.5 percentage points.

And in what could be a trend-setting move, Royal Bank of Scotland’s One account is insisting that new mortgage customers pour their salaries into it. Deposits used to be voluntary, counting against the loan to help cut the interest bill.

Louise Cuming at Moneysupermarket, a comparison site, said: “This could represent a growing trend by lenders, introducing more ways to tie consumers in.”

Because of the credit crisis, banks and building societies are being choosy about who they lend to. They can’t afford any more dud loans, so they are jacking up interest rates for those who cannot put up a big deposit.

By insisting on salary payments, One account will know instantly if a customer is thrown out of work. The subsequent letter might not be too friendly.

Just remember this cheap stunt when the market changes and banks are begging us to borrow their money – as they have before and will again. Their behaviour in this stressful period will lower their already dismal standing with the public even further, and that will take years to repair.

Small building societies, which have been the borrower’s and saver’s friend, are casualties of the new, hard-nosed attitudes. Lacking direct access to the Bank of England’s cash, they have had to top the best-buy tables to pull in money.

If any do go under, customers’ deposits should be safe. To protect the mutuals’ good name one of their bigger brethren will almost certainly take them over. But don’t doze off: that sort of upheaval can be fraught with hassle.

Good will hunting

Everyone should write a will, and this summer many people who already have one should think about rewriting it.

The reason lies in Alistair Darling’s prebudget report edict last October, allowing inheritance tax (IHT) exemptions to be transferred between the estates of married or civil-partnership couples.

The chancellor presented this as a doubling of the point at which IHT is payable, from £312,000 to £624,000. It may work out like that if the assets of the first of a pair to die are consigned to their spouse.

It starts to get complicated, though, when the first to die has willed money to other people, such as children of previous marriages. That uses up some of the exemption that can be transferred.

Independent financial advisers recently told Close Brothers bank that hardly any of their clients understand IHT, and today’s unmarrying and remarrying habits have made expert advice a must-have.

Many solicitors have advised clients to set up trusts for various purposes, from keeping ex-spouses’ hands off the money or business to controlling sons’ or daughters’ access to a fortune before they are expected to be able to handle it sensibly.

Such motives are still valid, but if a trust has been created solely to avoid IHT, the new rules may have rendered it pointless.

The permutations are infinite, so make your solicitor or financial adviser even wealthier by asking them to review your will – soon.