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From Times Online

November 1, 2007

A guide to the housing market forecasts

Boom? Crash? Slump? The housing market reports cannot agree. We summarise each one, to bring a little clarity to the situation.

Lucy Alexander

Land Registry September house price index The sample: The Land Registry holds records on all residential property transactions made in England and Wales, so its sample size (more than seven million sales) is the biggest. But since its index of average prices is based on completed sales it lags behind other reports. The findings: A slowdown. Prices increased by 0.4 per cent in September, but the annual increase of 8.7 per cent is down from 9.3 per cent during the previous four months. Growth in London slowed from 1.5 per cent in August to 1.3 per cent. Prices fell in the Midlands, the South East and the South West.

Nationwide October house price report The sample: Nationwide has tracked prices since 1946. Its data, collected at the post-survey-approval stage, is mix-adjusted – it tracks the price of a representative house over time. The findings: Robust. Prices rose by 1.1 per cent in October, and the rate of annual growth rose to 9.7 per cent, from 9 per cent in September. However, new-buyer inquiries and mortgage approvals are falling and buy-to-let rental yields no longer outweigh mortgage costs.

Hometrack October national housing survey The sample: Hometrack collects more than 6,000 reports from estate agents in all 2,300 postcode districts in England and Wales. The survey includes data on new-buyer registration, time on the market and viewings per sale, so it gives a more nuanced picture. The findings: A definite fall. Average prices dropped by 0.1 per cent in October (0.2 per cent in London) and annual growth fell to 4.4 per cent from 5.4 per cent in August. The number of new-buyer registrations has fallen by 17 per cent in four months. Growth will slow to 1 per cent in 2008.

Council of Mortgage Lenders 2008 forecast The sample: Forecasts based on data collected from the CML’s members, who make up 98 per cent of residential mortgage lending. The findings: Varied. House price growth will slow to 1 per cent, but lack of supply and rate cuts will avert a crash. Sales will fall from 1.17 million this year to 1.01 million in 2008. Tougher lending criteria will hit first-time buyers, boosting the rental sector.

Knight Frank 2008 residential forecast The sample: Forecasts based on data collected nationally by KF, which specialises in houses worth more than £1 million. The 2007 forecast was accurate in three out of four predictions. The findings: Weakened growth. Sales volumes will fall by 12 per cent and price growth will halve to 3 per cent. In prime London growth will plummet from 32 per cent to 3 per cent.

Advice would be appreciated in this uncertain housing market. I have an offer of Â£305,000 on a Â£330,000 property, I have not yet found a new property. The property has been on the market for 8 months and I am considering selling and moving out. I have somewhere to stay to put me in a good position to buy. What do you think? Am i missing anything accept not being able to get a new mortgage!

Ann Storey, Bristol,

We can all argue the toss on this about how long the decline in property prices will last. The bottom line is that they will bottom out at levels based on borrowings of no more than 3 to 4 times the average gross salary for the area. Maximum LTV levels are likely to fall to 80%, possibly to 75%. Prospective first time buyers should hold off until there are very significant falls in asking prices.

Paul, Coventry,