Anne Ashworth
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This has been the year when the dinner-party property price chat got technical. Those with scant knowledge of sub-prime, Hips, raw space or Libor had little to say. As these seem also likely to be the conversational gambits of 2008, our review of the year should ensure that you are not socially excluded.
January: Most market forecasts for 2007 were cautious. But Halifax's average house price — which then stood at £188,826 — continued to rise until September. The successful bidder for a mansion in Phillimore Gardens, Kensington, paid £15 million — £3million above the asking price. One agent said: “It was in the category of house you would kill to live in.”
February: The average price edged up to £192,349, even as concerns emerged over the impact on the UK economy of the US sub-prime scandal, caused by the sale of “teaser” loans to indigent homeowners. CABE (Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment) deplored the spread of “built for nowhere, but found everywhere” Identikit homes. Prices for this type of development were already falling.
March: A lack of supply caused an upward move in the average price to £194,565, although the International Monetary Fund felt UK prices were overvalued. The shortage of family houses led to the usual margin between the wreck and the des-res to narrow. Ed Mead, of Douglas & Gordon, said: “This does not make sense, but this is not a market that makes sense.”
April: And still the average price continued to rise to £196,387 — flattered by the growth of the London market, which masked the slowdown in the Midlands and North East. Property millionaires became almost commonplace with sales of £1 million-plus in one third of England and Wales's 685 postcodes.
May: Despite another base-rate rise to 5.5 per cent, the average price crept up again to £196,720. The Government had to delay the introduction of home information packs (Hips) until August. Critics argued that buyers — or rather their solicitors — would not trust the information in a Hip even when it did become obligatory. This turned out to be true.
June: Madonna, already owner of one Marylebone mansion, bought the one next door (for 30 times the average price of £197,450). The same lust for space led one Chelsea buyer to pay £2.5million (twice the asking price) for a neighbouring house to implement his growth strategy. But then neither he nor Madonna had worried about the Bank of England's warning that borrowers should not over-extend themselves.
July: A survey revealed that growth in the South was running at 11.7 per cent, twice the rate of the North, where prices were already stagnating. But the Bank raised the base rate again — which some called monetary overkill. The average price was £198,936.
August: Sub-prime became every UK homeowner's problem when the global financial market realised that $300 billion of sub-prime mortgages might not be repaid. Northern Rock, wont to raise funds in the money markets, could no longer do so. The run on this bank and its bail-out was not the end of this tale. Distrust between banks will make mortgages harder to obtain for a while. August's average price was £199,600.
September: Finally Halifax reported that the average price was down — albeit by just 0.6 per cent — to £198,305. Buyers' confidence had finally been dented by the realisation that repossessions in Cleveland, Ohio, the sub-prime capital, could affect prices in Cleethorpes and Cobham. Amid the US downturn, Manhattan remained buoyant, with much demand for basic, undecorated “raw space” apartments.
October: Halifax recorded another decline (0.7 per cent) in its average house price to £197,000. The impact of the smoking ban became clear; the value of a property next to a pub could be as much as £50,000 lower than the neighbourhood average because of the noise and litter caused by smokers driven outside.
November: The average price slipped again to £194,895, as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors forecast that buy-to-let would become a rich man's game, with new landlords much less able to secure mortgages. The prospects look bleak for those over-indebted buy-to-let investors with city-centre flats who can now neither find tenants nor sell.
December: The base-rate cut brought some cheer, but most lenders set their variable mortgage rates by relation to Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) — the rate at which banks lend to each other. As most banks hate each other's guts more than usual, Libor remains high. Some thawing in these relationships would give a fillip to the market in 2008, lifting the downbeat mood. But, despite fear and loathing in the banking sector, some property fans will remain, as always, enthused by the prospect of a makeover project, although few will equal the opportunity pictured below: the Brunello di Montalcino estate in Tuscany with four hectares of vineyards on sale through Cluttons for €12.5 million.
anne.ashworth@thetimes.co.uk
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Please can you advice me what to do if you sign up to a 2 year rental guarentee and the letting agents only pays the mortgage for 2 months then do a runner with the tenants deposit. Also they have left me with a shortfall on my mortgage of 299.00 for the next 20 months as i have a fixed interest only mortgage. Many Thanks. Also what is my position with getting my tenants to sign a new shorthold tenancy agreement due to the fact the other company are no longer around.
R. HUGHES, HARLOW. ESSEX, ENGLAND
BTL was originally devised to introduce new investors to the private rental sector, previously monopolised by a small number of investors with low standards due to the history of social engineering of capping rents in the UK. No profit meant little interest in keeping the property in good condition and the lowest % of houses occupied by tenants in Europe pre-1990. So horrible landlords letting horrible houses was the norm when I rented as a student. Not everyone is in a position to buy. Mobility for jobs is hampered by the exhorbitant costs of buying and selling in the UK. The extra supply of rental houses has kept rents lower than they would have been. I wanted to be a landlord to provide good quality housing to my tenants. I have reduced rents when my tenants have difficulties and I am chuffed they turn to me with problems. So I am fed up of being termed scum, having made a loss for several years as repair costs rise, something tenants don't pay due to the extra supply of homes
bix, edinburgh, uk
Hi again Joan, Yes I know there have been many property slumps that is why I asked how old you are, one just has to live through it and .....wait. In the UK it's a simple market situation of supply and demand on a small island.
Yes you are right, here in Spain (where there is lots of land) we have an abundant supply and little demand thus prices have fallen.....wait for it..... about 30%. I don't wish it on my British friends but they have allowed their government to let this happen it will of course get a lot worse before it gets better, probably 5+ years who knows and for goodness sake don't ask an 'expert' and hang on for a bumpy ride.
Victor M., Malaga, Spain
Thank you all for your interest. A little smug, but as I said, those are the things I shan't bother saying at dinner.
Victor, and if there is no capital appreciation for a while, e.g. 1975-1978, 1980-1983, 1990-1996...? I'm early middle-aged, thanks for asking. I hear that property is doing spectacular things in Spain
Richard and Danny Boy, If you buy a house for X, pay off a bit of the capital and sell for 3X, you gain about 2X. That is about typical for the last 10 years. Banks haven't started writing off house loans here yet.
Richard, I didn't claim to have been clever, but 4 times!, jolly well done to you (or as you say, bon chance). We did count the cost of moving, but luckily somebody else paid for it (relocation package). I'll be in Philly during March, perhaps we could have a dinner party? As said, I promise not to talk about property.
Jugoya (beautiful name - are you Japanese? I love it there). Right apart from the bit about Mother's ruin (odd glass of Bordeaux perhaps).
Joan Brooks, Tunbridge Wells,
This can only be good news for people in this country who have been forced out of the property market by prospectors.
The explosive unregulated growth in BTL investment has inflicted the most damage on UK society in a generation. When people have the opportunity to own their own home then communities are able to flourish. When investors buy up large percentages of property in a particular area and scoop over inflated rents from tenants then communities are effectively destroyed. Landlords add nothing, neither morally, socially, or financially to the areas in which they invest.
Why hasnât the government introduced substantial tax increases on rental income?
Alan, Inverness,
What you summarise there is just the final episode in a heinous inflationary situation with damaging effects on millions of people now priced out of property.
I think the dinner parties you are describing must be smug, hello darling, sparkly champagne events for morally unpleasant and selfish people.
That 12 months is just the last of approximately 96, when house prices spiralled viciously out of control. Now it finally seems to be stopping, not with very much help from the hand-wringing Bank of England, and I hope your dinner parties in the next 12 months will be full of doom and gloom. That doom and gloom concerns greed, and a profit you should never have had.
Shame on you people for writing this stuff, after 8 years saying the situation was terrible and needed redressing.
Now, finally, with little thanks to the B of E and more to do with the US economy, it is being redressed.
Joe, Manchester,
Oldasiahand: no smile will be wiped off my face, sad though that will be for you. I bought my house in 1978 and own it outright. You probably couldn't afford to buy it even were I to wish to sell. And when I paid £30,000 for it all those years ago, plenty of smart arses came forward to remind me of negative equity after the Heath/Barber boom, and to assure me that my house would never, EVER be worth more than I paid for it,. Sorry to spoil your orgy of schadenfreude. Sometimes the 'great unwashed' are smarter than old asia hands.
Dectora, London, UK
Joan. Middle aged, middle class and with a penchant for mother's ruin. Getting off the property ladder is always far easier than getting on. I have no feelings for your comment other than pity.
jugoya, Oxford, Great Britain
No Joan - your are not vulgar - just smug - the worst of British traits. And typically smug people think they are more clever than they really are. You are the perfect example. So you only doubled your cash out since 1996? That's not very good. Many have trebled since then (I have actually quadrupled on one property since 2000 ). But unlike the smug I know that this is down to luck and not anything clever on my part.
And now you've sold! Have you counted the costs of selling and then buying again? Property prices would have to fall at least 5% to make it worthwhile. And in good areas that is unlikely to happen. So happy renting!
Richard, Philadelphia, USA
So Joan, you're saying that you've been paying over three times what you do now every month, yet only made twice as much money? That's almost Brownian economics....and yes it's vulgar.
Danny Boy, Skövde,
The great unwashed British public, who have forgotten the lessons of 1974-5, 1981-83 and 1989-94, are about to have a religious experience: negative equity! It will wipe a few smiles from faces that assumed prices only ever go one way. My guess is that it will be a protracted slowdown of 3-5 years as the economy struggles with stagflation. A 25 percent drop in prices combined with a13-15 percent increase in salaries will bring average prices to 5 times coombined family salaries from an absurd 7 today.
oldasiahand, Guildford, UK
I don't know what to say; the dinner parties we go to, no-one speaks of property prices. I know we live in lowly Somerset, and have mud on our boots, and mud in our halls, but where did it go so wrong for us?
Jeremy Poynton, Fromeville, 51st State
Ah! yes Joan Brooks but you have forgotten the long-term capital appreciation and how it sets off againt you rent - how old are you?
I can't believe I asked that.
Victor M., Malaga, Spain
Don't forget that in November we learned that "...some people are already looking beyond the slowdown, trying to spy out the locations that could be the first to start moving upwards again."
Onto your topic of dinner party talk, I would love to bore the pants off every one telling them how I bought our family home in 1996, sold this April (trousering 2 times the original price as cash - now in Euros and Yen) and am renting a much larger house for about 30% of what I would have pay in interest only for the same house.
But I am not really that vulgar.
Joan Brooks, Tunbridge Wells,