The Grangemouth oil refinery is responsible for a mere 10 per cent of all the petrol sold in the United Kingdom and the vast majority of that output is in Scotland. Yet despite that, there have been reports of motorists stocking up on fuel as far away as forecourts in London. Ministerial pleas for calm have, if anything, been regarded by some as the ultimate proof of a need for panic. Logically, even Scotland has more than enough fuel to withstand not only the present short strike but a much longer walkout. Reason, though, finds it hard to compete with memories of the petrol protests in 2000 when almost overnight Britain found itself coming to a standstill. This might happen again.

This is not a dispute in which either Ineos, the company that acquired the refinery from BP three years ago, or Unite, the principal union concerned, has covered itself in glory. The disagreement has been simmering for months but the attempt at a compromise sought through independent arbitration came late in the day and had a half-hearted feel to it. The skirmish has thus become almost inevitable even if it is extremely expensive. There is an estimated cost of £50 million a day in lost production. The secondary effects if individuals change their habits, fill their tanks unnecessarily and hence draw stocks down, could be even more significant. The Scottish economy, particularly, would be badly damaged if this action continued on into the summer.

Any settlement, however, requires some realism from the trade unions. The core of this dispute concerns pension arrangements at the plant, although there is a not insignificant fight about new working practices there that is lurking in the shadows. Ineos wants to wind up its currrent final-salary pension scheme, ask existing members to make a 6 per cent employee contribution to it phased in over the coming six years and then make new arrangements for future employees. This is being resisted by the unions, which insist that Ineos is highly profitable.

It might well be, but investment in the oil sector, which is vital, is also immensely costly. This is especially true of the North Sea, where extraction has always been a challenging endeavour, and will become more so in the years ahead as the easiest fields are exhausted and more difficult territory has to be dealt with. As much as a quarter of the entire staff salary bill at Grangemouth is now paid to those who once worked there but no longer do so. The pattern of early retirement means that if no change is introduced, that figure could rise to one third of the total inside a decade. These employees are exceptionally fortunate, especially by the standards of the private sector, that they have not so far been asked for a contribution to the pension budget.

An astute union leadership would appreciate that it should be negotiating hard not on the principle of shifting away from a final-pension salary scheme but on the details of the transition. Both the 6 per cent figure and the six-year timetable could be modified if workers indicated that they accepted the need for flexibility and change. As oil is likely to remain at a high price for some time, Ineos could be more accommodating over its plans if it were confident that a comprehensive bargain with the unions would stick.

Until such an attitude is witnessed, however, drivers will fear for the worst and may behave in a manner that makes the worst more likely. And that will do nothing for a prime minister who has enough troubled waters already.