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A banker, Mark Twain complained, is “a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining and wants it back the minute it begins to rain”. The behaviour of many institutions during the current credit crunch has done much to substantiate the American humorist’s cynical assessment. Those who have insisted that their humble customers “should not panic” have themselves been acting in a manner akin to Corporal Jones in Dad’s Army. It is this approach that has been principally responsible for the upheaval experienced by Northern Rock in the past few days. If a far more robust response is not forthcoming, others in the banking sector will suffer.
There are specific factors that left Northern Rock more exposed to international financial turbulence than most of its British competitors. The company has become the fifth-largest lender in the country but on the basis of a small number of high street branches. It raises the vast majority of its funds not from investors’ deposits but on wholesale money markets and through the sale of bonds based on its mortgage debts (asset-backed securities). It has marketed itself aggressively and has perhaps been more prepared to lend to the self-employed and those with unpredictable incomes than others. But it is emphatically not a Bank of Hicksville. Its profits will be down sharply this year and next, but they should still run into hundreds of millions of pounds. The Bank of England is assisting a business that has a short-term problem, not a short-term future.
This intervention has only become necessary because of the banking community’s inaction. Banks are making a crisis out of a drama by their refusal to lend money to each other, as is normal, and are showing little discrimination or responsibility, financial or social. Bodies that have been vocal advocates for their own “self-regulation” have collectively stood back and obliged central banks (and by implication central governments) to become the lenders of last resort. Central authorities have been forced to exhibit the degree of confidence in the banking system that the banks should have been capable of displaying in each other. It has been wise of the Bank of England and the Treasury to adopt the strategy they have, but once the current concerns triggered by dubious US mortgage lending ease, questions may be asked of rash banks who have shown little sense of judgment.
The paradox of this saga is that the larger global economy is not suffering from a shortage of liquidity. There has been enormous new wealth created in Asia with a subsequent thirst for investments in Europe and North America. The flow of money available may slow somewhat in the coming months but there is no rational reason why it should dry up. There will be a surplus of funds, not a shortage. Any adverse impact on the “real economy” should be modest unless the banks are so needlessly restrictive in their activities that more of them are damaged by adverse publicity as Northern Rock has been.
The sub-prime debacle is the cause for legitimate concern. It involves immensely complicated financial packages that are not fully understood even by some of the most sophisticated operators in this field. The irritating lack of clarity about who holds what amount of debt has led to some ridiculous underpricing of risk.
Yet the scale of these difficulties, even if the worst estimates are ultimately accurate, should not be such that the banking system itself is discredited. Customers have looked to the banks in vain for reassurance. These organisations need to show the financial maturity that they demand of those customers. Some supposedly responsible institutions have rushed to the exit with all the charm and grace of a panicky prepubescent. We will, in time, name and shame those banks.
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Very well said. Your excellent article raises questions not only about the banks' judgement over loans to each other but about their overall competence. I have dealt with a number of UK banks recently - and some foreign banks - and of the UK banks only one - First Direct - have impressed me with their overall competence and approachability by customers. Most of the others have been difficult to communicate with (speaking to computers, not people) or have been obstructive or just stupid. Most of them seem to have hugely overpaid boards presiding over staff many of whom appear to be recruited for their cheapness rather than excellence.
David, Ligneyrac, France
"Banks are making a crisis out of a drama by their refusal to lend money to each other,"
Really ? Perhaps they have a better idea of the quality of their assets than outsiders do ? It really is not good enough to treat banks as a "black box" and assume all their assets are top-grade
TomTom, Leeds, England
Surely Barclays only a few days before went to the BoE and said they needed more cash.Why didnt that get the same publicity? Shouldnt investors and savers at Barclays withdraw their money too? i
David, Henley on Thames, england
This was a fairly brilliant, and succinct, discourse on the current banking crisis in England and the USA. What we are witnessing are bank runs started by banks, not by retail depositors. If such banks have no trust in each other, why should anyone else trust them?
I do take exception, however, to the continual implication in the UK press that all this mess is somehow the fault of the Americans. While it may be generally true that we invented these exotic financial instruments, and that they do have a tendency to self-destruct without warning, most of the British banking problems seem to be related to homegrown investments.
Don Peter Mellon, Ennis, Montana, USA
Your last paragraph sounds like a public school headmaster telling the assembled pupils that he has discovered that the sixth form is playing poker!
"Name and shame" indeed!
I bet that that alone will bring the scurilous scoundrels to task!
Bravo, headmaster!
Richard A, California, USA
If the Noorthern Rock is solvent, as we are told by BoE,why then institutions have not come to its rescue in propping up its shares and increase the rock's market capitalisations? To me it certainly reflects the same lack of confidence as its depositors!! Now the rock is facing a double whamy of downward spiral!!
Andy Bakhai, Estepona, Malaga, Spain
First class article.
It is about time someone put the Northern Rock debacle into perspective and mentioned the banks' irresponsible behaviour in effectively walking away from a problem they should jointly be exercised to resolve.
RalphG, London, UK
The BoE should have split Norther Rock's assets up and sold them to the crocodiles in the banking market soup. This would have maintained BoE's credibility as a body.
The problem now is that BoE's reputation is going out of the door with every pound withdrawn by Northern Rock's savers. Worse still is that the BoE's refusal to raise interest rates at its last meeting was a misjudgement that has seen mortgage lenders raise their rates regardless of BoE's base rate.
What now if BoE's interest rate is further ignored by the market? Will it still retain its eyebrows in the heat of the market?
Edwin Thornber, Bucharest,
If other banks, who generaly know their business, are not willing to lend money to Northern Rock (NR), why should we investors feel comftable with lending them our life savings?
Why would NR's share price have slumped by more than half in the last 3 months, if the people "in the know" ie bankers, think this bank is a safe bet. Clearly it's not safe, and is upto it's kneck in subprime type mortgages.
I had lunch yesterday, with a good friend who had bought a flat in London last year, with a 120% mortgage from Northern Rock. She is married to an Australian, and they are intending to return to Australia next year, when their 2 year fixed deal runs out. She thinks her flat has increased in value by upto 20% over this last year. Presently they are breaking even, and if the houseing values continue to increase, they will leave as winners.
But if the old addage is true and "when America sneezes, we catch a cold" and house prices begin to tummble like it did back in 1989, what then?
Christian Midhage, London, England
It would help if the media calmed down and was less alarmist with its headlines.
Bill Rees, TRURO, CORNWALL
The lack of people in financial markets with a fundamental understanding of the instruments they develop and trade continues to be a real concern. Nearly twenty years ago I led a major project to advise an important sector of the financial markets on re-structuring the basis of their products and trading mechanisms. As a banker by original training, I was not well-informed in the particular markets I was starting to investigate. Three months later, having developed an expertise in the sector and computer-modelled it to death, I realised about 5 people in the country, in a market of 100-200 firms, had any depth of understanding the fundamental structure of their business.
Earlier and later experiences have persuaded me there is is a role for a light - yes, or none at all - regulatory interest here.
Colin Wells, London, UK