William Rees-Mogg
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Gordon Brown ought to fire the sad spinners who run Labour by-election campaigns for him. Their campaign in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election has been snobby, smeary and amazingly incompetent, ending up by defining the key by-election issue as being whether Uppingham is, or is not, a “toffs” school. I would myself have put Fettes higher in the toff scale; the voters probably have better issues to consider. Yet the Crewe by-election is itself highly important.
Crewe & Nantwich is - or was - a safe Labour seat. At the 2005 general election Mrs Dunwoody, a deservedly popular constituency member, held the seat for Labour with a majority of more than 7,000. It would take a swing of more than 8 per cent for the Conservatives to win next Thursday's by-election. Yet all the weekend polls suggest Labour will lose to the Conservatives.
A local poll taken for the News of the World gives the Conservatives a lead in Crewe & Nantwich by 45 per cent to 37 per cent for Labour. This constituency poll is supported by two national polls; Yougov in The Sunday Times gives the Conservatives 45 per cent, Labour 25 and the Liberal Democrats 18; ComRes in The Independent on Sunday gives the Conservatives 43 per cent, Labour 26 and the Lib Dems 19.
All of these polls suggest that there would be a Conservative landslide at an early general election. On the YouGov figures, the Conservatives would win about 400 seats and Labour about 200; the Lib Dems would lose seats to the Conservatives in the South but might gain seats from Labour in the North.
In 1997 the electoral tide was running for Labour. Even people who had voted Tory all their lives thought the Conservative Government had lost its way, was wrong about Maastricht, or had been infected by sleaze.
When the results were announced many Conservatives felt relief that their Government had been thrown out of office. Their one regret was the scale of the defeat. With only 165 MPs left, it was obvious that it would take more than one Parliament for the Conservatives to regain power.
The Labour Party had had their year of defeat in 1979. That was a landslide on a smaller scale, but it was followed by bigger Conservative victories in 1983 and 1987, and by a fourth, though less substantial, Conservative victory in 1992. After 1979 Labour was out of office for 18 years, wiping out the whole careers of a generation of potential Labour ministers and MPs.
Most democracies have a somewhat similar electoral cycle. There comes a point at which voters simply decide it is time for a change. I do not much doubt that this point has been reached for the Labour Government.
Tony Blair timed his departure as brilliantly as he timed his arrival. He entered at the moment when a Labour victory had become inevitable, he made his exit within a few weeks of the turning point that is leading to Labour's next big defeat.
However, we cannot yet be certain. Political leaders, as Hillary Clinton has often reminded us, have to “close the deal”. She has not, in fact, been able to close her own deal.
The Conservatives in Britain are now way ahead in the polls, but they have not won a by-election for a generation. They need to show that people's voting intentions will actually lead to pencil crosses in polling booths. I expect they will at Crewe, but in politics there is nothing like the fact of victory.
That is why Boris Johnson's election as Mayor of London was so significant.
The Labour Party in Parliament is beginning to be demoralised by this swing of the electoral pendulum. Even when things are going well, MPs tend to be paranoid about their seats. One hears MPs with majorities of 15,000 speaking of their seats as highly marginal. Yet now there are at least 200 Labour MPs whose seats really are at risk. In terms of the majority, Crewe is Labour' 147th most-vulnerable seat. There are 146 Labour MPs whose seats are more marginal than Crewe.
So far, the issue of changing Labour's leader has been hypothetical. It is very difficult to work the Labour constitution so as to depose a leader; Gordon Brown is a tough figure for any challenger to take on. If Crewe is lost, gossip will become more serious. If a challenger emerges who can plausibly offer to help to save their seats, the gossip among Labour MPs will become a real threat to Mr Brown.
Because the electoral cycle is swinging in their favour, the Conservatives have the appeal of the rising sun. David Cameron still has to face erratic small arms fire from some newspaper critics, but the public has moved towards him. Mr Brown will always remain a formidable politician; the “big clunking fist” may look rusty, but he will never be negligible. Mr Cameron may have little to fear from Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, who has not captured the public imagination. Mr Cameron is himself much more convincing and a natural leader of the liberal centre.
The Conservatives should not now make too many commitments of policy, though they will be urged to do so. The public recognises the threats to economic prosperity. The cycle of boom and slump, which Gordon Brown rashly promised to abolish, has again turned down.
David Cameron and George Osborne cannot know what financial difficulties are ahead. There is everything to be said for them avoiding commitments that could prove to be inappropriate in the actual conditions a Conservative government might face. Common sense and caution are the right qualities for playing a winning hand.
William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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Mr Rees-Mogg,
" ... little to fear from Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, who has not captured the public imagination."
Why do you always disparage the Liberal Democrats ?
Surely we need a credible opposition in Parliament and it is clear that Labour will not be able to provide this.
Michael Cole, London, UK
'The Conservatives should not now make too many commitments'
Simply follow the NuLab pre-1997 strategy (smiles, sharp suits and warm words) and let the governing party go into self-destruct mode where, currently, no assistance is needed and Buggins et al should not be interrupted!
m collins, Leeds,
Sadly this story appears to be rather simplistic. It is also a signal of the political Right getting to carried away with its own spin.
Crewe and Nantwich is not a safe Labour seat.
Even if the Tories win in the by-election this will be a dire result for Cameron. Labour achieved swings of 20-29%.
James Thurston, Northampton, United Kingdom
It may be 'time for a change', but should we not promote the fiction that policies matter? Otherwise how can we hope that a new administration will bother to deal with the Scottish question, the EU question, the council tax ...... Or at least promise to do so.
John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England
Who appears to be more honest? At a general election I believe Nick Clegg will shine and surprise you. I long for a conservative government, I wish I had a conservative party to vote for.
Terry Nicks, Radstock, England
"Blair timed his arrival brilliantly". I remember it being the untimely death of his predecessor that let him out of the bag! And, like others, I've seen no reason to vote for any one over another until I see the promises. NuLab promised an end to sleaze and better services - as yet undelivered.
KR, Stockport,
Labour's politcal propaganda here in Crewe during the past couple of weeks has been nothing short of appalling - attacking the Tory opposition simply because he had a 'privileged upbringing'.
Good Luck to him - at least Edward's campaign has actually focused on real political issues.
Paul, Crewe, UK
Whatever the result in Crewe, Brown is going nowhere. He is a 'spent' force . This country has sub-consciously moved to a presidential style of choice. Brown is a party elected leader only Late in 2009, the fiscal surge will start rolling up the Thames as a last throw of the dice.
michael murphy, brightlingsea, england
Labour certainly deserves to lose Crewe and Nantwich after their years of ignoring what the people want have encouraged greedy developers to ruin the area.
Bill Atkins, Rehoboth Beach, USA
Politicians just don't get it: people are scared. They are scared about their jobs, their housing, and how they are going to feed their families. In the U.K, as here in the U.S., voters have only one outlet for this fear: new politicians. No political seat is safe.
Susan, Dallas, TX, USA
1 nagging thought: is Cameron the Tories' Neil Kinnock.
John Major was terribly unpopular in 1992, but in the end, not enough voters could see Kinnock as PM, to turf the Tories out.
Andrew Forbes, Thames Ditton, Surrey
True to all elections in ths country the electorate vote against a party or prime-minister.The current lot are like a football club who have lost all their main players and are now fielding the academy kids- not enough talent or maturity.What Cameron should do is solve the Scottish problem
walter doyle, widnes,
What change are you talking about?Cameron has talked about change in only the most general terms.There is no real commitment to changing anything-except the faces with their snouts in the top table trough.As a Conservative voter,I shall not be voting for Camron until he shows how he will change.
Norman, Notts,
How can you call the current political mood a swing of the pendulum? There isnt a fag paper of difference between the two main parties, and the Lib Dems are for reasons best known to themselves, failing to exploit that. There is now a media driven call for change but without understanding to what
John, Maidstone,
Such a pity the tide cannot turn quicker in our democacy than once every four years. Serious consideration should be given to Ed Balls' wonderfully mature view of smears and pantomime in elections as "adventurous ways of campaigning". Can we not take this further? A la Zimbabwe, perhaps?
john problem, winchester, uk
Ah yes! The pendulum swings once again. Tweedledum takes Crewe & Nantwich from Tweedledee....landslide for 'heir to Blair' Cameron at the next General Election with huge majority!
1997 all over again, but in reverse (or not, as the case may be)!
Things can only ....stay very much the same.
David Moon, Seaford, Sussex
I disagree that a Labour loss will be because "voters simply decide it is time for a change". This suggests that Labour is just a hapless and blameless victim of the natural political cycle.
Surely Labour is responsible for its own downfall due to its sleaze, spin, incompetence, dishonesty, etc.?
Chris K, Cheltenham, UK
So the tide is turning from Tories with red and yellow rosettes back to the true-blue rosetted variety. Plus ça change, plus cest la même chose.
Paul, Coventry,
In the early years of the New Labour Government, their policies were believed without question. There was little outrage over their stealth taxes, destruction of pensions and sale of gold at the bottom of the market. Now there every action is watched with distrust. Gordon Brown has been rumbled.
Stanley Kenner, Barkingside, England
And so we are set to have yet another government that totally fails to reflect what the majority opinion in this country and can impose its will without discussion or effective debate. With less than 45% they can have an overwhelming majority. This is appalling! Bring on PR, now!
Robert C, London , UK
I notice (with irony) that NuLabour are not attacking the `heriditary principal` in the current bye-election.
Peter Bolt, Redditch, UK
Come the General Election, Labour will be lucky to be the main opposition.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
This government has totally lost the trust of the British people with its lies and incompetence and has even attacked its own natural supporters with the 10p rate. The Labour party now desperately needs a long period in opposition to work out exactly what it is for, as it clearly has forgotten.
Roger, swindon,
I believe the tide will turn and the Tories will win Crewe - funnily enough with Mrs Dunwoody's blessing from above. She was getting rather fed up with New Labour also if the truth be known !!!
Ian Payne, WALSALL,