Gerard Baker
The man, the films, those blondes. Free DVD collection starting this Sunday
Change, it turns out, wasn't all that it was cracked up to be. Having campaigned for the past year as the agent of transformation, the man who would lead an historic shift in America's political direction, Barack Obama is discovering that there is quite a lot he likes about the way things are.
Since securing the Democratic nomination a few weeks ago, the only change coming from the Illinois senator has been in what he seems to stand for. Last month he dropped his opposition to a Bill before Congress that would give telecoms companies immunity from prosecution for carrying out illegal wiretaps on potential terrorist suspects.
He told a cheering crowd of Israel's supporters of his fervent commitment to the security of the Jewish state and added, for good measure, that an “undivided” Jerusalem should be the nation's capital. He said that he likes free trade after all, and that his primary campaign pledge to dismantle the North American Free Trade Agreement was a case of “overheated rhetoric”.
Last week he expressed support for a Supreme Court decision that struck down a ban on handguns and opposition to another that outlawed the death penalty for rape of a child.
This week he promised to expand President Bush's faith-based organisations initiative, a programme that channels funds to religious groups so that they can deliver social welfare services, which the Left regards as a heinous blurring of Church-State separation.
If next week he named Dick Cheney as his running-mate and revealed that he spends his spare time drilling for oil in wildlife habitats, the only surprise would be that it took him so long.
Of course there's nothing much new in what the senator has done. In the lexicon of modern American politics, it's called a pivot. You campaign hard to the party's extreme in the primary election, where the base voters tend to be. Then, when the nomination is secure and there are no more idealists to be humoured, you pivot back to the centre. The only difference is that in Mr Obama's case the pivot is so hard and so fast that the entire Democratic Party is suffering from whiplash.
A whimper of pain has gone up from the base. Those who really believed in the Audacity of Hope now fear a Timidity of Despair. Thousands of Obama supporters have signed a petition on his website begging him to reconsider his position on the illegal wiretaps - a seemingly minor campaign issue, but one that carries great talismanic symbolism for civil libertarians.
Left-wing commentators have raised the usual cry of betrayal. Arianna Huffington, that rare creature, a young conservative who moved sharply left in middle age, dubbed Mr Obama's move not realpolitik, but “realstupidpolitik”.
Conservatives, meanwhile, led by John McCain's Republican campaign, say that the presumptive Democratic nominee's pivot shows that, for all his talk of offering a new kind of politics, he is really just another cynical politician who will say anything to get elected.
I suspect that all this worries Mr Obama not at all. The louder the Left complains, the deeper the satisfaction at Obama headquarters.
Can you remember a time in, say the past 100 years, when the American people have rejected a presidential candidate because they thought that he was insufficiently left-wing? As for conservatives, they should be cheering Mr Obama, not complaining.
The Left had hoped that 2008 would be a watershed election, a long-awaited counterblast to the Reagan Revolution of 1980 and Newt Gingrich's Contract with America in 1994. And if there were ever a time when the country seemed ready to move left this was surely it. Democrats have a 20-percentage-point lead in opinion polls; those same polls show that almost fourfifths of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. The Republican Party today has all the appeal of a communicable disease.
And yet, on the issues, as Mr Obama understands, people are not so radical. On domestic prosecution of the War on Terror, on cultural issues such as guns and the death penalty, on religion's role in public life, perhaps even on trade and free markets, there is little evidence that Americans are ready to abandon their beliefs.
This is another example of how smart the Obama campaign is. They understand that the biggest impediment to an Obama presidency is lingering doubt about whether their man is a straight-down-the-middle American. Despite having a couple of bestsellers to his name, he is still something of a blank page to most voters, one on which his opponents are trying to doodle all kinds of unflattering portraits of an extremist.
So he is spending these dog days of summer reassuring interested but nervous voters that he is as American as the Fourth of July. And he is doing something else besides - looking ahead to his possible presidency.
A clever pragmatist, he knows that if he wins in November, he will face an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress, clamouring to push the country harder to the left. It would, irony of ironies, fall to President Obama to reassure the American people that he can hold those radical enthusiasms in check.
What is more, by abandoning so many left-wing totems, Mr Obama is emphasising that his promise of change is more than just a swing to the left of the old political pendulum; that his promise of post-partisan politics is a genuine one.
But there is a risk in all this repositioning. Mr Obama will almost certainly have to junk a lot more of the campaign baggage he has accumulated over the past year.
Two big plans look especially vulnerable. The first is his tax policy. This would raise the top marginal rate of federal income tax in the US on those earning $250,000 a year to more than 56 per cent. As the conservative Heritage Foundation pointed out in a report this week, that would put the US somewhere between Finland and Sweden in a league table of marginal tax rates. I doubt whether the American people really want to adopt a Scandinavian economic model, especially during a period of stagnation.
The other challenge is Iraq. Mr Obama continues to insist that Iraq is a failed war and says that he will withdraw all US combat troops within 16 months of taking office. But the closer the election gets, the less plausible it will be to refuse to acknowledge the success that US forces have had in Iraq in the past year.
If, as I suspect is highly likely, he drops these two big remaining planks from his platform, it might not just be the Left who will be wondering: what's left?

Gerard Baker is United States Editor and an Assistant Editor of The Times. He joined in 2004 from the Financial Times, where he had spent over ten years as Tokyo correspondent and Washington Bureau Chief. His weekly oped column appears on Fridays
Read the training tips and advice that helped our London Triathletes
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles


Why good girls pay good money for bad-girl baubles

Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths
2007
£47,700
2007
£41,899
2008
£41,445
Great car insurance deals online
£25,510 – 32,000
Transport for London
London
£50k
NHS
Nationwide
£
£30k OTE
Meltwater News
Nationwide
100K
Confidential
London
5% below developer pre-launch price!
Luxury Appts, beautiful gardens w/ Thames views
Great Homes Available on a shared Ownership Basis
Great Investment, River Views
By Funway – Thailand
from £589pp
Christmas Cruises
From only £995pp
APTs East Coast now from only
£2425pp.
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Globrix Property Search - find property for sale and rent in the UK. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
some of you wanna be nimrods need to read history. Didya like Pres. Jefferson? Andrew Jackson? You're so obfuscated about the facts of a society truly built for the people, not those who bought it in 1913, so do the planet a favor - stay home on USA's election day. Do you people ever read books? LOL
Jason, Southern California, USA
Young? Check. Handsome? Check. Charismatic? You betcha. Gives a good speech? Yes, just needs a teleprompter. African-American? BONUS! Swooning, adoring fans in the "objective" media? Check. Experience? Um..no. Enjoy your "change" suckers -- IF you can figure out what kind of "change" he's promising
Brenda, Atlanta, Georgia , USA
The truth is, nobody really knows what Obama is going to do except Obama. I believe he is playing both sides. He is very similar to Bill Clinton. I have read that Bill Clinton was the first black president, but Obama will be the first black Bill Clinton.
G. Jones, Oak Harbor, USA
I was in NY at the weekend - McCain is on 40% and Obama is on 45%. The election is Obamas to loose and if he carries on like this then he will do. The unknown quantity (Obama) needs to keep to his word, otherwise it will be a case of the devil we know being elected in November.
Muzzler, London,
Of course Obama has Irish Ancestry. One of his ancestors left Moneygall, Co. Tipperary in the late 1700's. That is why he is such a fine speaker.
Billy Clancy, Thurles, Ireland
You say Obama flipped; Andrew Sullivan demurs. But both of you say his clumsy "move to the center" is "smart". I think you are telling us more about British politics than U.S. politics. Hypocrisy -- from a guy who wasn't one until mid-June -- apparently does not trouble you folks.
Peter, Los Gatos, USA
The bloom is most certainly off the rose. Float like a butterfly, to quote Ali, may work in boxing, but it isn't exactly the hallmark of a politician who really stands for much. The disillusionment of the far left with their darling is palpable.
neil, chicago, USA
To Bill from Seattle, The Clintons are by no means finished. They are waiting. You can bet your bottom dollar that if Obama loses, Hillary will be at it again next primary season, which to us, is only about 2 and a half years from now. Which for the Clintons is another political lifetime.
Jeff, Winnipeg, Canada
"Conservatives should be cheering?" Are you crazy? Senator Obama is a Manchurian candidate. His inner core, his fundamental beliefs are revealed by his long term associations & his voting record. His ability to jettison those associates & "pivot" show he is a clever pol. Once elected, he reverts.
Bill Brockman, Kenner, usa
None of this is going to matter, because Obama is going to lose.
So funny to me that nobody wants to talk about the reality. He's liberal, he's inexperienced, and he's black. Those three things will hit voters as soon as they walk into the voting booth, and they'll reflexively vote McCain.
Tom Lemon, San Francisco,
What about Mr. B. Hussein Obama's possible cabinet appointments - for example:
1) Secretary of State - Reverend Jackson (he has Lybian, Cuban, and Syrian experience);
2) Secretary of Defense - Reverend Farakhan (he has experience in arming his security detail);
etc - you can imagine.
Marc Jeric, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
The man is a phoney & the Americans are the biggest fall guys.
ian cheese, london, uk
Your article presumes that B H Obama has a strong position on anything !! I suspect he is naught but a mouthpiece for the moveon.org and G. Soros crowd. Without a pre-written script he seems rather inarticulate on any subject..
Scott, Pensacola, USA
I've read all of the comments so far.
So let's see, it is okay to pivot and "change" your positions to get elected. It is best to do whatever it takes; just get elected. Be a liar and have no core beliefs. Sorry, I prefer the one who tells his truth. Obama is just too dangerous for us.
janet cantor, philadelphia.pa, usa
I think you over-estimate a 'shift' in policy. He is really just pandering to the middle to get elected and once elected will go back to his left wing positions with a left wing Congress. There is zero chance the most liberal voting senator will be any sort of opposition to the left, if elected.
Rick, Elizabeth, CO, USA
Illuminat is exactly right, Connie, but this time, they're called the Open Society Institute, or maybe it was the Council on Foreign Relations (though Soros' isn't a member of that one, I think that's all Americans), but he's probably on the Bilderberg group and the Trilateral, for sure.
Doc Neaves, Richardson, Texas, USA
And it's George Soros that's the key here. In Jan 07, he commands Obama's presence at a meeting. Within a month, iirc, he announces he's running...no exploratory committee, nothing...just, I'm running, and I'm going to win. Go look up the Open Society Institute, then look up "The Moneychangers".
Doc Neaves, Richardson, Texas, USA
Sen. Obama is indeed walking a tightrope, and risks annoying many of his supporters by his shift to the center. Loyal supporters, however, will fully appreciate his need to pivot for the GE - and his need to do it quickly to define himself before the GOP defines him. He is brilliant and has my vote!
Jimmy C, Letchworth Garden City, UK
I am very discouraged. Where's the "change," we're supposed "to believe in?" It is disheartening to see this pandering to the far right. Is this the Obama version of McCain's pilgrimage to Jerry Falwell? If this continues, I will dispair and not vote at all.
Daniel Conklin, Seattle, USA
An empty suit flutters in the slightest breeze ...
Bill, Oakland, CA, USA
This article is slight.ly ridiculous - the matters listed in the article as evidence that Obama is making a u-turn, are matters that really not inicative of any such actions
(1) The immunity bill was being opposed to maintain safeguards, dropping his opposition was a matter of reaching aims
Frederick, London,
(2) The Handgun matter - He didn't say that he supported the ruling he said he agreed with the importance of the second amendment. Something he has to say unless he wants a Brady Bill phenomena to engulf him.
(3) Israel - match this against tons of other left leaning forigen policy statements
Frederick, London,
It appears that neo-America will remain so - a disappointment to older Americans who have always tried and hope for the better, driven by young Americans who have all of the historical perspective CNN has offered.
Beware world for Obama to soon accept Bush's "premptive" military policy.
Ernie Wright, Phoenix, USA
O is a true politician. My prediction is: We in USA are in for a Carterlike Obama presidency. With a tempered resession. Islamic extremist will think we are weak. US will spend nexrt 20yrs reversing Dems legislation. Except Universal Health care. More expensive with less quality healthcare.
sandra thomsen, santa barbara ca., usa
Obama's mantra of "Yes We Can" has become "Yes He Will" when it comes to change. Now that Obama has fooled the left-wing, he will triangulate like "Slick Willie" Clinton. It is clear to me that Obama has read the Clintons' playbook. By summer Obama will look like McCain.
Larry Washington, Atlanta, GA, USA
Now that the Iraq war is looking "winable" for the US, McCain should be able to make a very compelling argument between the two parties - democrats are for defeat, shame and letting all of the Iraq casualties be for nothing and the republicans are for doing the right thing and winning this war.
Greg, Tampa, US
The whole country has been forced to pivot since Reagan by the individualistic doctrine imposed by the right wing and repuplican philosophy. We are shamefully selfcentered and selfish and Obama has to coddle the brainwashed center in order to instruct us back into a cohesive/constructive society.
Frank, Cambridge,
We all know Obama is all for the "North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) " and the "North Americas SuperCorridor Coalition (NASCO)" AKA the "NAFTA Superhighway".
He's also in favor of the "Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP)".
Maybe to be "The North American Union"
Andrew Towell, Hartlepool, England, UK
The whole country has been forced to pivot since Reagan by the individualistic doctrine imposed by the right wing and repuplican philosophy. We are shamefully selfcentered and selfish and Obama has to coddle the brainwashed center in order to instruct us back into a cohesive/constructive society.
Frank, South Boston, USA
So would you rather have a President that does not change his position as the conditions change? You know like George W. Bush.
Yes like McCain they all move toward the middle to get elected. So What?
Bob Doyle, Tyrone, Georgia, USA
Not since HW Bush decided he could step out of Reagan's shadow, have candidates seemed to have fewer convictions. George Will said that HW Bush didn't believe in anything. "He just thought people like him ought to be president." McCain/Obama both have shortened that to,"It looked like such fun!"
Eric Holland, Moulton, USA
What if...what if Obama doesn't win?
Nic, Johannesburg, S-Africa
I wonder how many of his promises will turn out to be overheated rhetoric. On the other hand, could anyone do worse than Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney?
Miland, Birmingham,
John McD--O will not be good for the country. Reality--O will probably win--but he must reassure non-party centrists to be elected.. Then, O can do what he wants. With O, US is in for many lefty social programs, bad energy policy, high taxes, and inflation. See Johnson admin. for reference.
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
By his actions, Sen. Obama shows that he realizes the median voter in America is ideologically somewhere right of center and now places himself marginally to the left of McCain. So, with the choice of two candidates trying to occupy the same space, why not choose the one who was there first?
Michael Harrington, Los Angeles, USA
Terry Walker,
You are dead on - his flip flops are cynical and calculating - his flip flop on Iraq is easy to see - before making the trip to Iraq, he is readying the public for what he is going to say after this "fact finding tour". He knows his position is untenable
NS, Chicago, IL, USA
"Change You Can Believe In"does NOT mean a principled president that believes in & fights for causes. We already have that and the public does not like it one bit. It means one who cares about remaining popular, does what is best for Obama and avoids risky irreversible acts like starting major wars
Andrew P, Alexandria VA, USA
I am a conservative and Obama's many shifts (I call them lies) concern me greatly because he will take any position he deems politically necessary at any given time-he thus has no core values. can you imagine if he were Pres. now and refused the surge and pulled out of Iraq-we would be in trouble.
Tom, Dayton, USA
"A socialistic path that only the French could love". Evidently our friend has not noticed the French have just elected a notoriously right-wing President. There are socialist countries, but France isn't one of them just now.
Tom Perry, Singapore,
He's gonna give Dukakis a run for being the most useless democrat of recent memory
Rob, Kent, UK
Although I will probably not vote for Obama, I am grateful to him. He can be credited with putting the Clinton dynasty (mercifully) out to pasture. Amen to that. I wasn't looking forward to the possibility of another 4-8 more years of Bill Clinton and his shrewish harpy of a wife.
Bill, Seattle, USA
I was interested to see that Connie in Illinois reckons that the Illuminati are at work again. That explains a lot about Obama. I think they control him by playing Jay-Z into his implanted earphones. It is when he jerks his jaw up -- that is when they play the tune and pull the strings.
Lois Rees, Old Lyme CT, USA
His voting record has established him as a far-leftist. Should he be elected President he will return to that position and with the backing of a Democratic Congress will take this country down a socialistic path that only the French could love!!
Richard , Tucson, USA
Politicians inevitably change position . The ultimate "shell game". This is 'political skill' and the public is inclined to fall for for it as if impressed as by new spin. Those who have the ability to speak an 'untruth' with the greatest finesse are the ones that usually succeed.
Brooks, C, Jomtien, Thailand
Obama thinks he is going to walk in and pull 125,000 troops out in 16 months. A total impossibility. There are only about 30,000 infantry troops on the ground the rest is support. BUT I think the insurgents are going to let Obama pull out. Why? Because THEN they can declare "victory' LOL
MIKE DUROCHER, CHICAGO , USA
Well written and as we can now see some of what is written here is coming to fruition. There is no doubt he is going to drop the 56% marginal tax band. The US is miles away from adopting a Scandy model. BO is doing things right. While he has the slack, he needs to pivot ready for the real fight!
AT, Sydney,
I will not vote for Obama for any reason. Too many questions regarding with his past associations with violent people in the past. He is too liberal for me. His wife's comments about our country. I served in Vietnam and fought for our freedoms but I did it for anyone to be president.
edward devlin, dubuque, IA,
Does anyone know if Obama has discovered his Irish ancestry yet? Terry L Walker....So we should ignore what our eyes and ears tell us and simply have faith that Obama is good+will enact huge positive change once in power? Is his refusal to mandate universal health care going to change? FISA? Iran?
John McD, San Francisco , ca, USA
Let's take the war pivot as an example. It was a stupid, impulsive decision to attack the country in the first place. This "liberal" thinks getting out has to be smart and deliberate. We do have a moral obligation to leave Iraq in the best condition possible. Obama is making room to do it.
John Lebens, Portland, OR, US
Breaking: Obama said today that he will reconsider his stance on the withdrawal from Iraq.
As a conservative I have to wonder whether all these changes are good news or bad news, but no doubt, he is making it easier for conservatives and independents to vote for him
Jason, Westminster, UK
Relax he's just spending some of his 'leading in the polls' capital.
Dan, Timbuktu,
A good analysis, but you missed the second, and most important, pivot: after he is elected. First you need to appeal to the Democrats, then to the American constituency, and then you have to be President. Personally, I trust the bloke, and I'm looking forward to the future.
pat morgan, Shanghai, China
Amad Shaff--Your concept of center governance doesn't always hold up.. Read up on the Lyndon Johnson Presidency--definitely not of the center.
Brett-- It will help him. Neither Dems or Reps can win with just their base. The centists who could go either way must be courted and not frightened.
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA
Obama has cast himself as the welcome insurgent. He cannot represent the American Establishment. McCain does that. Such has been the defined choice & a reason for Obama's momentum. It is foolish to belittle his supporters' dismay which may well forecast his defeat.
Ernest Werner, Trumansburg NY, USA
Change every week. I finally understand what Obama meant by change. His values - his church. His positions - his policies. They change quickly.
Patrick, Vicksburg, MS, USA
this man has flipped constantly. eventually his true character will be recognized
backing of kennedys and soros
A phony that somehow a group of americans are worshipping.
who are the realObamas?????????????????
anne, dunbartonUSA,
The Illuminata are at work again. Poor Obama! Remember what they did to George Bush? Poor guy can now hardly string two words together :)). The US does not want change, they just want the world to stop hating them for being what they are! Obama should come to terms with that sharpish! LOL.
Connie Stevens (Democrat), Illinois,
You're talking as though this type of pivoting on issues will help him - as if by disavowing his base for a more centrist position, he'll better secure his victory. It didn't help John Kerry, and Democrats won in 2006 because people finally perceived a difference between them and Republicans.
Brett, Salt Lake City, USA
He is a puppet and will have to govern from the center also. Those who think he will switch back after he is elected dont have a clue how it works. You have to govern from the center.
Amad Shaff, Beverly Hills, USA
Why is the left squawking about O's pivot? O's reassurances to the center are as meaningless as a party platform. President O will be free to enact all the left-wing legislation he and a Dem Congress want. He won't be abadnoning lefty positions. But he has to elected first. He understands that.
Terry L. Walker, Ladson, SC / USA