Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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Iran issued dramatic threats to the US yesterday about the consequences of an American or Israeli military attack on its nuclear plants, part of the past week’s showy verbal exchanges with the US and the European Union. But the real drama lies in the next stage of complicated negotiations, hard to interpret even by the intricate standards of the six-year wrangle over Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
Their unpredictability stems from new factors: disagreements within Iran on whether to negotiate, and on what terms; the dwindling possibility of military action by the US or Israel, now very unlikely; and the Bush Administration’s new interest in links with ordinary Iranians, to build on the pro-American feeling within the country.
“The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran”, said Ali Shirazi, a mid-level cleric, who is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards. “If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and US shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran's first targets.” That rhetoric follows reports in the US media of Israeli air force exercises, which stirred speculation about a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
There are reasons to see this symmetrical eruption of threat as mainly posturing, on either side. It is hard to find even hawks in Washington who are keen on airstrikes, given the difficulty of the mission, the uncontrollable effects on the region and the opposition from the American public, Congress, much of the US military and allies of the US. Nor is an Israeli strike possible without US backing, given that it would have to send aircraft or missiles over Iraq. Some Western officials agree wryly with yesterday’s remark by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, that for Bush, a strike would be “political suicide”. There have even been signs from the US of a very different tack. Officials considered sending consular staff to the US section within the Swiss Embassy in Tehran, according to Mark Fitzpatrick of the IISS think-tank in London, to help Iranians to get visas and take advantage of pro-American feeling in Iran. But a senior adviser to Ahmadinejad blocked it, Fitzpatrick said.
The real drama now centres on Iran’s response to an offer of economic rewards put forward by the “E3 plus 3” - diplomatic slang for Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China, in return for its agreement to suspend uranium enrichment. Senior Iranian officials suggested last week that Iran might look favorably on the offer. There was talk about a “freeze for freeze” - Iran not adding enrichment capability, in return for no more sanctions. But the response “said nothing about suspension or freeze for freeze”, one Western official who has seen the letter said, adding that it was largely a justification of the Iranian position. Yet the text did not rule out negotiations either, and Javier Solana, the EU’s representative, will meet the Iranians, probably within days, to ask what they really mean.
What Iran wants, Western officials believe, is to buy time while waiting for a new US president, and keeping enrichment going. If that is right, Solana will not get far, and the E3 plus 3 will return to trying to find sanctions that Russia and China would support, while both sides wait for the result of the US elections.
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Nuclear fall out after a strike on Israel or Iran is not going to be confined only to these countries.I am sure Israel and Iran both know it that they can not isolate their populations from a nucear holocaust,no matter who strikes first.
yunis khan, Newport, UK
let me see
Israel mounts a military exrecise which could be a dry run for an attack on iran, and that´s o.k.
the u.s. mounts military excercises in the area, obviously flexing their muscles at iran, and thats o.k.
iran mounts military exercises WITHIN their own borders it's not ok, such a hypocrisy
Pegi, Toronto, Canada
The Iranians tested a missile that can reach 2000 km and carry a 500kg payload. 500 kg of conventional explosives is enough to destroy a large house. There's no point to making such a missile for a conventional warhead. But 500 kg is large enough to carry a 20 kiloton nuclear warhead.
J Griffith, Ottawa, Canada
Ask an Iranian what he or she think of their present government.
Loathsome, is what they tell me.
Ahmadinajad needs his weaponry because he thinks if he destroys Israel he'll have hegemony over the Muslim world, after which the rest of the world is his oyster.
leila , manchester, uk
It's interesting how American right wingers out there so angrily and viciously attack anything they conceive as anti-conservative, EVEN IN A UK ARTICLE. Senator McCarthy would love their tactics. It's sad the USA has been reduced to Red and Blue states instead of Americans acting together.
John, Lafayette, USA
Regardless if Obama or Mccain gets into office, Iran nuclear facillity should be bomb on completion. If gas goes up.. gas goes up.. Security is better than the gas prices going to 10$ a gallon. Isreal should not be attacked or wiped off the map.
Rhalo, Baltimore,
SID !
There's no threat to America, or Paris or London.
OK, except the people we armed first who are scary
for maybe a day. They have last years weapons, we
have this years.
You are talking about people's lives here, indiscriminate bombing of a country. Iran wants peace too.
C.G Twickern, Bristol, UK
But please keep talking about sensible things like IMPEACHEMENT and how you hope "cooler" heads prevail.
Robert, Sacramento, U.S.A
God help us it the democrats get control of all branches of government. They have a long track record spanning decades of weakness in the face of America's enemies. The resulting social unrest would allow them to implement the totalitarian socialism they've been dreaming of since the early 1900's.
Chris Protopapas, Columbus,
So, when Iran gets nukes, and sets them off in Tel Aviv, Paris and London, what are you wacko liberal revisionist nutjobs going to do about it then? I'm betting still nothing, zilch, nada. Sit in your dimmitude. Abandon your traditions. Negotiate with fanatics. You deserve your fate.
Sid, Apopka, USA
"Iran issued dramatic threats to the US yesterday..."
What a one-sided way to start the article! Who has threatened to launch a nuclear strike on whom? (Answer, for those who aren't aware: the governments of Israel and the USA, and two of the three US candidates, have threatened to bomb Iran).
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Give to Israel cruise missiles, F-22 fighters and several old nuclear submarines that can be armed with nuclear weapons in intent to give Israel ability to second stick and by so establishment of deterrent ability that deter her foes and secure her existence. It MUST be the responsibility of US and the West to prevent SECOND HOLOCAUST.
Nicolas De Marlo, Paris, France
Is Israel through the USA trying to become the 4th Reich, or isn't this apparent enough yet?
Udo, Melbourne, Australia
Two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan thousands dead and no sign of Osama. Why would the US even want to mess with Iran. Hopefully there are some peacemongers among the insane warmongers in Washington and Tel Aviv. Let cool heads prevail the world doesnt need any more wag the dog American wars.
sunny peacemonger, surrey, canada
How pathetic really! Bill Clinton and his impeachment! Bush though, he's really the most deceitful and treacherous person alive...He's running the American people and the whole administration and Congress! Its time guys! COME TOGETHER War is terrorism! IMPEACH THE PRESIDENT** WAR CRIMES+ OCCUPATION
Janet, STRATROY, CANADA
The United States is the only country ever to have used nuclear weapons.
This is an excellent article that stems the tide of media complicity in a foreign policy that has been hijacked by a crazy cabal, and threatens not just the world but the good people of the United States and Iran as well.
C.G Twickern, Bristol, UK