Irwin Stelzer: Analysis
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
This was the weekend that was, one on which the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke must have looked back longingly at those lazy, hazy weekend days
when he chaired Princeton University’s economics department. All he had to
do these past few days was prevent the passing of a major investment bank
from triggering the collapse of the US financial system.
When it became clear that Bear Stearns was on the verge of collapse, taking
with it who-knows-how-many institutions with which it was intimately
interconnected through a web of financial dealings, Mr Bernanke moved from
crisis prevention to crisis management. He put paid to Bear Stearns’s
85-year existence by arranging a takeover by JPMorgan Chase at a price equal
to 1 per cent of Bear Stearns’s value just 17 days ago, less than the value
of the company’s headquarters.
Mr Bernanke then announced a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Dealers can
now lend the majority of the $50 trillion of credit market instruments to
the Fed in return for cash equivalents, “allowing the Fed to be able to
support the debt structure that underpins the American economy,” according
to the Lindsey Group, a leading consultancy.
We won’t know for some weeks whether the Fed’s weekend work will relax taut
nerves or tighten them, although early signs are mildly encouraging. Past
efforts to bring down long-term interest rates by cutting the short-term
rates over which the Fed has control have not been successful. But we now
have new weapons. In addition to the reassurances offered by the Fed’s
activism this weekend – appreciative noises were emitted by the White House
and the US Treasury – by month’s end there will be an auction at which banks
will bid for $200 billion of risk-free Treasury notes, which they can
receive in exchange for some of the AAA-rated mortgages sitting on their
books, unloved and unsaleable. That exercise will give them Treasury paper
they can trade for cash, and take $200 billion of mortgages off a glutted,
indeed, frozen market.
Unfortunately, that is rather like bailing out the ocean with a teaspoon; the
Fed’s $200 billion, even all of the $400 billion of its remaining holdings
of Treasury notes, counts as little in the $11 trillion mortgage market.
Worse still, the swap will do nothing to halt the decline in house prices.
Until the bottom of the housing market is reached, the value of mortgages
will continue to decline.
So here is the state of play. The Fed, worried less by already-intense
inflationary pressures than the possibility of a collapse of the financial
system, has cut short-term interest rates and will cut them again. It has
channelled funds to ailing institutions, announced that it will do so again
if necessary, and bailed out an investment bank - “wiped out” is the
shareholders’ preferred description.
Now, like Catherine Zeta-Jones’s Velma Kelly, desperately seeking a partner
for her nightclub act in the musical Chicago, Mr Bernanke is
privately thinking “I can’t do it alone.” The next steps will come from the
federal government, protestations from the White House about the dangers of
“moral hazard” notwithstanding. Look for direct intervention in the housing
market to provide government backing for moves by lenders to write down the
value of mortgages, and cut interest payments to levels commensurate with
the lower value of those mortgages.
Look, too, for nationalisation of some of the outstanding debt, as occurred
in the 1980s and 1990s when some 1,000 savings and loans banks (thrifts)
went bust. The taxpayer will end up assuming the risk that outstanding loans
on the banks’ books will not be repaid. That might sound improbable, given
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s loud opposition to any such move but this
is an election year, and congressmen up for re-election are less impressed
with the risk of moral hazard than with the risk of having to seek
employment back in their home towns or in the lobbying firms that line
Washington’s K Street.
Meanwhile, the pressure on the banks to find new sources of capital remains
intense. The Fed may have injected liquidity but it has not added capital.
The sovereign wealth funds did just that at first but have pulled back a
bit, as the falling dollar steadily shrinks the value of their investments.
The banks have so far resisted pressure from Mr Paulson to add to their
capital by cutting their dividends but will eventually have to send just
that bad news to their shareholders.
My own guess is that there is more bad news to come – those “events, dear
boy, events” that so terrified Harold Macmillan. Worse even than current
upheavals in credit markets would be a cataclysm in the currency markets.
The Fed has cut rates and is likely to cut them again. Each cut has added
fuel to the fire that is burning the value of the US currency. As it drops,
its value to oil producers and others falls, so they raise prices. But at
some point these sellers-to-America will be joined by China and other
holders of large stacks of dollars in deciding that enough is enough. If
they start dumping dollars, and end their semi-pegs to the dollar, Americans
might find that their worldwide purchasing power dictates importing little,
travelling less, and living less well, while the rest of the world hunts
desperately for new customers.
But the cumulative effect of Mr Bernanke’s tossing the kitchen sink at the
problem, the moves yet to be made by the congress and the White House, the
fiscal stimulus that will put about $150 billion into consumers’ pockets
this summer, and continued healthy earnings in most segments of the economy
just might trigger a turnaround.
While we wait, Americans have stopped sneering at Britain for nationalising
Northern Rock. After all, the Fed needs White House and Treasury approval
for taking $30 billion of Bear Stearns’s liabilities on to its own balance
sheet because in the end taxpayers are now on the hook. If it looks like
nationalisation, and feels like nationalisation, it is nationalisation. And
there is more to come.
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The real hope for every day Americans is to let the banks fail. Then sell all assets on the court house steps. All the politicians involved will pay for giving this bill to us to pay.
eddy hilton, OldFort, Tennessee
"Sneering is an English habit. Americans don't sneer at anyone. Don't project your own bad habits onto other people." William Worsley, Washington, DC,
Could you at least check the nationality of the author before launching a racist remark?
Allen Twyning, London,
Regarding Northern Rock; the sad fact is Lloyds Bank was prepared to buy it before the crisis really broke, but the UK Government lacked the intelligence to see a good deal starring them in the face. The rest is history and yes the US authorities handled an equivalent crisis in exactly the right way.
JohnLewis, Upminster, UK
As someone pointed out ealrier - follow the money.
During the creation of this bubble, the greedy bankers wanted to get their hands on more than their fair share of the nation's wealth.
They did this by creating a mountain of imaginary money which they lent to the sub-primers, earning fabulous bonuses.
When the system started to fail they persuaded governments to nationalise the debt, thereby passing the burden on to the wider population of tax-payers
I expect the bankers will have salted away their wealth somewhere safe. The sub-primers end up homeless and the prudent end up just poor.
Toby, Winchester, UK
Sneering is an English habit. Americans don't sneer at anyone. Don't project your own bad habits onto other people.
William Worsley, Washington, DC,
@wendy, Visalia, CA USA
Wendy, you are right. see the internet film, The Money Masters, on Google. It explains everything coherently.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
Like the FSA and the Bank of England over here, the Fed did next to nothing to stop banks frantically lending money to people who couldn't afford to pay it back, and couldn't offer security. The watchdogs simply didn't bark. So Joe Public will have pick up the tab, as always.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
There has been almost no mention of Northern Rock in the American press. That seems far from sneering.
johnnymarsh, Lincoln, Nebraska
Trouble in the 'Balkans', American inspired Bank Failures.
Remind you of anything ?
brian spooner, gent, belgium
'Americans have stopped sneering at Britain for nationalising Northern Rock' - rubbish
The FED handled BS in less than a working week and got the completion data to the markets before they opened Monday. Brown's Labour party dithered, waffled, and bled it all out over months with no commercial buyer at the end. There is no comparison in the quality of the US handling v the UK's appalling show. The US dispatched Bear Stern with a single clean cut whilst the UK battered and bled Northern Rock which then took ages to die in misery. If we were talking abattoirs here the UK would be in court for cruelty and unhygienic practise whilst the US would be serving the steaks hot and juicy. The US habit of living off unsustainable global credit is another matterâ¦
Paul J. Weighell, Purley,
Wendy, have you met Mohamed Fayed?
Match made in heaven. You could have Heather Mills over for tea.
David, Deptford,
Does anyone consider that it is possible all that has occurred was planned and the outcome anticipated to benefit a few at the high cost of many?
Does it seem utterly incomprehensible that flim-flam men in high places have transferred funds from the pockets of Americans into their own methodically?
Following the money is possibly what we should be doing.
wendy, Visalia, CA USA
'Americans have stopped sneering at Britain for nationalising Northern Rock' - I doubt if 1 in 100 have heard of Northern Rock - and most of those probably mistook it for a beer
mshamans, new york, new york
I do not even try to to say i understand the coplexities of high finance. But it is clear to all but the most simple mind that ever increasing debt with no reality of repayment is a downward spiral
bill inch, edinburgh, united Kingdom
Once again more hypocritical actions by the US and UK. While their governments trumpet to the world that capitalism,deregulation and free trade is the way to go, as soon as their financial system begins to fail they are the first to immediately step in, a sign of communism.
Why not let the greedy and mis managed banks fail and teach the future CEOs on $40million salaries a lesson that greed never pays in the long term?
If you had an educated population they would have realised that 10% growth in houses prices every year is FAR from sustainable and natural growth.
Sell you houses now people, go travelling and buy them back in 12 months for 25% less.
luke, perth, australia
It's the moral equivalent of war! Man the trenches, arm the cannons, ready the brigades, charge forward, and then yet eventually who do we find our most dangerous opponents to be? Ourselves
glenn schaefer, holbrook, ny/ USA