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Western economies are in the foothills of recovery but they will never be the same again, certainly in Britain, where overeager regulators threaten to stifle any renewed growth.
These were the messages to emerge from The Times debate, held earlier this month in association with BT, on the shape of the financial world to come. An audience of 100 financiers, business leaders, administrators and commentators met at the Royal Institute of British Architects in London to discuss prospects for the future, obstacles to growth and reasons for the collapse.
Some of the more hopeful comments came from David Mayhew, chairman of J P Morgan Cazenove since its inception in 2004 and, at 69 years of age, one of the most experienced financiers in the hall. He said: “There is evidence that some of the worst is over in the US and, if you believe recovery has got to be led by the US, there will be some restoration of asset value. That will begin to relieve the banks and relieve the lending process.”
He added that capital markets have reopened, which was healthy but “happening only for companies with good cause”. He pointed to evidence that the housing market is moving again but noted: “We are only in the foothills of the recovery.”
Ian Livingston, the chief executive of BT, agreed that markets are coming back and revealed the corporation had just gone to the market to raise €600 million (just over £500 million) via a five-year bond.
He said the transaction had been straightforward and the move was an opportunist one to lock in some funding at a time when debt capital markets were at their hottest.
This optimism follows surveys suggesting that the UK economy has already hit rock bottom and is now starting to grow slowly, although figures published last week showed consumer spending and mortgage applications down a fraction in May.
No one at the debate rushed to put all the blame for the financial crisis on the banks.
Livingston said: “We should recognise it was not just a financial services problem.
“The bubble was a consumer high ticket bubble. There was a misbalance between the way people spent in the West and the way people saved in the East. The banking crisis was a symptom of that, rather than the cause.”
Mayhew added: “We all share some of the blame. We were all overconsuming, all overexuberant.” Angela Knight, chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, said passing the buck would not help to solve the problem and that both government and regulators had stood back and watched the crisis develop.
The prospect of regulation hung over the debate – especially regulation from the European Union, which Bob Lawson, chairman of Barratt Developments, called “the elephant in the room”.
David Wighton, business editor of The Times, said the UK must ensure that “moves in Europe do not seriously jeopardise the interests of the City”.
Picking up the theme, Mayhew said: “We are suffering from European invasiveness which we should resist with the greatest effort. They are not doing it from any other reason than their own. Regulators will try to silo the businesses and in doing that they will reduce returns.”
Knight pointed out that while the UK wants to be truly international, “we are the only big financial centre with two sets of regulatory authority: our own in the UK, the other in Europe”.
She added: “While there is a desire – and rightly so – to ensure the industry is well managed, risk properly controlled and there is proper application of capital, liquidity and structures, we still have a desire to punish.
“We need to build our new controls and regulatory structures not out of mistakes but out of the experiences of those managing a historically difficult time reasonably well. What we need to look at is what they have done right.”
And Livingston warned: “The more and more detailed rules you have, the easier it is for people to tick the rules and miss the point.”
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