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The former Conservative Chancellor Nigel Lawson made a sceptical and profoundly controversial foray into environmentalism earlier this year with the publication of his book, An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming, which argued against the accepted views on global warming and the increasing fears which surround the issue.
In this week's interview for The Green Rush, Times Online's series on business and the environment, he outlines his position, arguing that global warming is treated as if it was "a new religion", rather than being considered in rational terms.
"I do think, because this is a very important issue, because anything we do about it is going to have huge economic consequences, we really do need to approach the subject coolly and calmly and rationally," he says.
Lord Lawson, who served as Margaret Thatcher's energy minister, and then as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1983 to 1989, says that the onus is on politicians and governments first to examine the science behind global warming, and then to act accordingly. It is not, he argues, a matter where businesses have "anything sensible to contibute".
He acknowledges that businesses may see opportunities to profit from environment-related government subsidies, "and if the Government is so foolish as to give these subsidies then I'm not going to complain about businesses taking advantage of that."
But he adds that such subsidies may be reined in as the pressures of the global economic downturn continue to be felt. (Lord Lawson was speaking to Times Online earlier this summer, before the recent, renewed economic turbulence in Europe and the United States.)
China and India, Lord Lawson argues, are right to avoid targets to reduce carbon emissions which would force them to curb their development. But he predicts that in consequence it will not be possible to meet targets for the cutback in global carbon emissions (which he himself does not believe to be necessary) or even to significantly reduce emissions at all.
"What is likely to happen is more and more of those industries that use a lot of energy will decamp to China and India, or else they will decline in Europe and their opposite numbers in China and India, because they've got much cheaper energy, will get a bigger and bigger share of the market. So that in fact the emissions will still be coming but they'll be coming from China and India instead of coming from Europe."
He also argues that there are "plusses as well as minuses" associated with a warming planet, citing findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Last year, he says, the IPCC "suggested that the sort of mean, most likely, increase in temperature over the next hundred years is an increase of about three degrees centigrade. And they say that an increase of about three degrees centigrade would actually be beneficial to world food output."
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People who point to the world scientific groups as their source of proof fail to realise that these are not unbiased and dispassionate investigators. Raw data does not infact substantiate their position, and their models are as flawed as the inputs. Enviros want power, like all people.
Dr. Christopher Morton, Manchester, UK
Billy, it's been known since 1896 that the Earth's atmosphere acts like a blanket, making the global average temperature 15C rather than -20C. That's the greenhouse effect.
The 4 greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone and methane.
Patrick Simpson, Oxford, UK
I find the comments some have posted downright alarming. No scientific bodies of national or international standing dispute that the planet is undergoing warming attributable to human activity. Given this is the case I think its sensible, reasonable and rather important to accept their position!
Oliver, Truro, UK
now is a good time to watch 'global warming or global governance' on you tube. this thing ties in with recent world leaders statements on a new financial system.
macc, tripoly, macedonia
Its been known since 1896 that CO2 causes warming.
Hey Keith - if that is the case then how come after 112 years ( and about 112 billion in our money) no-one has been able to prove it?
There is none. It is only a theory. and an outlandish one at that. A more sensible explanation is sun cycles
billy, Cardiff, Wales
Armageddon-type climate change scenarios focus the mind better than the old-fashioned Greens multiple complaints about pollution, smog, carcinogens, extinction, deforestation etc. These are not pleasant, but none motivate support of nuclear alternatives like death does. Sounds clean. Clever that!
D Kennedy, Warsaw, Poland
I fully expect poor Nigel to be burned at the stake for heresy. the new orthodoxy of global warming ignores the real facts of climate change such as that there is no such thing as an average global temperature if you doubt me google average global temperature
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Its been known since 1896 that CO2 causes warming. How can all the millions of tons of gas, oil and coal , burned everyday, not have an effect. The arctic ice is disappearing. A 6 degree temp rise will release the world methane hydrate causing a "Permian" style mass extinction. Denial kills us all.
keith bentham, Wigan, uk
I notice that Global Warming has now been largely renamed by the environmentalists as Climate Change. Could this be because their irrational religion has been undercut by the latest reports that state that there will be no rise and possibly a drop in world temperature over the next decade?
TERRY, Horsham,
I refer to the comment by Russle Keen. 100 years is indeed an evoloutionary eye-blink, but animals and plants can move. those species to fragile to survive should not nessicarily be pandered to and saved just because they are cute and fluffy, although reckless hunting and deforestation must stop.
M Nairn, Edinburgh,
Religion is based on irrational thought. The science behind the current 'accelerated' global warming is rational and sound! Past global warming took place over a long period where eco-systems had the chance to adapt, the current is happening too fast and is evident in the current mass extinctions!
Alan Simpson, Kilwinning, Scotland
Isn't it quite a co-incidence that it tends to be business figures and those connected to business figures who want to deny global warming exists?
They couldn't be playing with the health of our planet purely for profit... could they?
Allan, Glasgow,
Climate change has occurred throughout our planet's history. Even if man is partly to blame this time, trying to prevent it is as pointless as trying to stop the tide. Better to apply our money and creativity to adapting to the inevitable new conditions. Wallowing in ineffectual guilt helps noone.
Delilah, Maryland, USA
Thousands of years ago, the UK had a thriving wine industry, thanks to the Romans introducing their grape vine cuttings. The industry died out gradually due to global cooling. Vineyards have returned during recent times. BUT is man reponsible for this recent warming? Noone knows!!
Terrence, london, uk
"Global warming" is not so much a religion as an unstoppable gravy train for all those scientists and environmentalists who make a very comfortable living from it. Rational debate with these people stopped years ago - try to reason with them and they lump you in with Holocaust deniars.
Sean Hunter, Glasgow,
The main question that must be anwered is; what proof is there that spending huge amounts of money will actually help anything?
Could it be that this whole global warming thing is wrong? As had been mentioned earlier, eventual global cooling and another ice age is much more certain.
Charles, Chicago, USA
Think Positive! If Obesity were made Universally Compulsory then , between the lot of Us we could sequestrate enough Carbon to Save the Planet !!!
Abrahm Khadabrian, Broxbourn,
The day people like Zak Goldsmith and Al Gore give up their fortunes and cosy lifestyles is the day I'll believe they are actually sincere and not just trying to rid themselves of some misguided existential guilt.
James J, London, UK
People who ask for clear, unambiguous data that proves global warming is due to man are missing the point, possibly deliberately. And people (often the same ones!) who say that global warming might be a good thing are very reckless. Whatever the evidence, global warming is a risk best avoided
A Clarke, London,
One inconvenient fact lost on the "end is nigh" AGW enthusiasts - is that the next Ice age is a dead cert given historical evidence. There is no precedent for a "runaway" greenhouse effect due to increase in CO2 - in fact- we better hope and pray that we are increasing the temp somehow.
billy, Cardiff, Wales
It strikes me that environmentalists are mostly highly educated people - global "warming" should maybe be renamed as some simpletons don't get that it isn't straight warming of the climate but also erratic weather occurences like too much rain and storms as well as heat. I just wanna cry...
Esther Phillips, Guildford,
Having read Lawson's book, I have doubts about the sea temperature measurements. Not because the Americans and British used different techniques, but because they gave different results and both methods were unscientific. In other words, can we trust the data upon which AGW theory is based?
David, Cheshire,
The fact that all the other planets in our solar system are also warming proves that industry has nothing to do with the problem.
Arthur, Melbourne,
I don't believe a word of the Green Mania. England has been wet and windy all my life. Nothing has changed.
John Stobart, Oakham, Rutland, UK
The new religion is just a vague romantic set of 'wouldn't the world be a nicer place' ideals. It's central belief is 'I'm not happy in my current world' - it's just a lack of belief. The enlightened ones will be among the first to jump ship when their standard of living is threatened.
Peter, Cambridge, UK
As a 50 year scientist all I want to say is that today there is evidence of global warming. However to attribute this 100% to industrial activity is absurd. As a scientist I would like to ask a simple question - where is the clear, unambiguous data that proves global warming is due to man?
Peter, Johannesburg, South Africa
Mr Lawson isn't providing a very cool and rational analysis himself. Blithely saying that "they say an increase of 3'C will help food output" totally ignores the potentially devasting effects of warming on ecosystems we rely on and which evolve only very slowly. 100yrs is an evolutionary eye-blink.
Russell Keen, London,
Rational debate has given way to the bulldozer of pressure group soundbites. Disagreement from the party line is met largely with abuse by the new 'enlightened ones'. In religion speak: self righteous fundamentalists. Oh and of course there is real money to be made in the green protection racket.
Alan, Luton,
Secert societies, claim they have all the answers, members of Freemasons. Who think they know more than god, satanic forces who do not think all thing is finite,& man & science knows the answer to life on earth. No they don't & can't solve world crisis. & NO, man is not perfect they are imperfect.
daphne kenward, Cambridge, UK