Siobhan Kennedy, M&A Correspondent, in Munich
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A year ago private equity had all the money in the world. Today, the industry struggles to fund deals of €1billion (£750 million).
It is something that the millionaire buyout bosses gathering at this week's annual Super Return conference know only too well. While many predicted that the buyout boom would be back in full swing by now, the hangover from the past three years' acquisition binge continues to linger.
With unsyndicated debt clogging the pipelines, buyout chiefs privately have written off 2008, with many crossing their fingers and hoping that they might get one or two deals away successfully.
“By now, people expected that we'd be largely through the problems, but we're not,” Kamal Tabet, the global head of Citigroup's financial sponsors group, which advises private equity firms, said. “Things are very tough.”
The credit crunch has wiped out the private equity world as we knew it. The investors who rushed to snap up leveraged debt have fled, leaving behind them a trail of unloved loans that are weighing heavily on banks' balance sheets. Although some of that debt is being sold, progress is slow and until the backlog is cleared and investors return, the buyout world has all but ground to a halt.
“Until the $250 billion [£127 billion] of banks' backlog funding is somehow syndicated, it is unlikely that private equity financing is going to resume on any kind of scale,” Mr Tabet said.
“Until then, the firms are going to be severely constrained. The problem is we don't know where the market is right now.”
The story could not be more different from last year, when the spotlight was focused on the industry. The buyout bosses were being attacked for their secrecy, use of excess leverage and exploitation of tax loopholes. The media swarmed to last year's event as the unions took up their positions outside the conference centre. It was a jamboree to beat all jamborees. The apex of the industry's 25-year history.
This year will feel much more humdrum. Nonetheless, the industry's glitterati are gathering. Jon Moulton will kick off the conference on Wednesday, no doubt with a sideswipe at bankers for their role in bringing the industry to its knees. David Rubenstein, the founder of Carlyle, is set to gaze into his crystal ball with his predictions for the year ahead, presumably laced with doom and gloom.
David Bonderman, the head of TPG, will give his offbeat views on the meaning of life, the universe and private equity and no doubt explain how his industry stands to gain from the restructuring opportunities that inevitably will come as the world's economic woes deepen.
Sir David Walker, the man responsible for making the buyout world more transparent, will also put in an appearance. So, too, will Simon Walker - no relation - the new chief executive of the British Venture Capital Association.
Yet the truth remains that deals in 2008 are likely to be stuck around the €1 billion to €2 billion mark.
“The first six months of this year are a definite write-off - and there's a question mark as to what will happen in the second half,” Mr Tabet said.
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