If the Alistair Darling sleeps well this weekend, he is either very self-assured or very heavily sedated. On Wednesday, the embattled Chancellor delivers his first and - if it all goes badly wrong - possibly last Budget speech. The stakes could not be higher, both for Mr Darling's career and the British economy, which is poised nervously at the edge of a very large abyss.

So as the Chancellor lies in bed contemplating his big day, what is he thinking and what should he be thinking?

Well, he is probably wishing that his hands had not been so firmly tied behind his back by his next-door neighbour, Gordon Brown. After years of profligacy, the public finances are in a tight spot and he needs to raise extra cash. The Chancellor is likely to try to boost Treasury coffers by introducing or extending so-called green taxes. There is also speculation that he may raise national insurance for higher-rate taxpayers. But with the economy looking so fragile, now would be the wrong time to squeeze more from taxpayers. The Chancellor must realise that money picked out of people's pockets, no matter how stealthily, damages the economy.

Better that the Government breaks its own arbitrary fiscal rules than risk this strategy. Humble pie is better than a shrivelling pie. Of course, with the public finances in such a state of disrepair, this means that taxes would probably have to rise or public services cut in the future, but this is better done when the economy is in a healthier position.

With the Government's incessant tendency to meddle, we can probably expect a few surprises in the Budget. Let's just hope that the Chancellor's sleepless nights this week do not result in sleepless nights for us all next week.

What would you do if you were Chancellor?

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