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The iPod is many things: portable media player (if you take the literal approach); style accessory; style icon (if you buy into the marketing speak); even lifestyle choice. Next the humble iPod could could emerge as the unlikely saviour of America’s flagging economy.
About $60 billion (£30.5 billion) is expected to pour into shopping malls in June and July as Americans rush to spend the tax rebates handed to them by Washington, which are intended to kick-start the economy. Economists expect much of the rebate money to be spent on household goods and electrical items — and that means television sets and iPods.
Last month, President Bush and Henry Paulson, the Treasury Secretary, unveiled a series of proposed tax rebates worth about $150 billion, which return cash to low and middle-income Americans and offer investment incentives to business. The move was designed to boost consumer demand — a key driver of US growth — and help to bring the world’s biggest economy away from the brink of a recession. Cheques will start to be sent out in June.
Kevin Logan, senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment bank, in New York, said: “Typically, Americans spend their tax rebates from these kinds of fiscal stimulus packages on durable and non-durable goods. Service spending is less affected — people have to pay their rent, electricity and gas bills regardless. These kinds of stimulus packages trigger a rise in sales for clothing, household furnishings, and household goods.”
Unlike previous fiscal stimulus packages, such as Mr Bush’s first programme in 2001, the 2008 rebates will benefit families and individuals on very low incomes. Mr Logan said that people on lower incomes were more likely to spend cash given to them than their wealthier counterparts: “If you have an annual taxable income of $3,000 and you receive a $600 cheque, that is 20 per cent of your income. It is more likely to affect your spending behaviour than for someone who earns significantly more. The rebates are now designed to be pushed further down the income ladder.”
Mr Logan and Douglas Elmendorf, co-author of If, when, how: A Primer on Fiscal Stimulus, commissioned by the The Brookings Institution in Washington, agree that the package of rebates will be labelled as a success if it triggers a better than expected rise in consumer spending in the third quarter of the year.
Mr Elmendorf, a former senior economist at the White House, said: “Spending should be stronger than anticipated — so if, by the third quarter of the year, the economy is doing terribly, then we would have — expected retail sales to be weak. If this package is a success, then we would expect to see consumer demand fare better than expected, relative to those current conditions.”
Money go round
Where does the idea of fiscal stimulus packages in the United States come from?
— From the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, the British economist
— He argued that the State and the private sector have key roles for a healthy economy and tried to devise ways in which they could work together, unlike the laissez faire school of thought, which claimed that markets and the private sector should be left alone with no state intervention
Keynes’s multiplier effect
— Keynes thought that a government could stimulate a great deal of production from a modest outlay, if the people who received money from a government spent it on consumer goods. That spending would allow companies to employ and pay more people, which would trigger more consumer spending
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For those of you who are constantly bewildered by the antics of the good folk here in the US, let me explain. Think of a vintage Godzilla movie, with large crowds screaming in terror and running amok, while brave soldiers with bazookas and tanks try to stop a giant, physics defying fantasy monster from smashing random cities to bits. And then, for some unknown reason, he returns to the sea that spawned him, leaving us with many unanswered questions. Should I save this rebate in case he returns? Or should I go ahead and purchase japanese porn? Now you see our dilemma.
wilbur Varela, los Angeles, california, usa
Do you think it might make more sense paying off a bit of the mortgage?
Dump the debt when you have a chance.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
A recession can only be staved off if people spend their way out of a recession. It makes sense that when people have run out of money to spend, the companies that supply their goods have to lay off staff to cope with reduced turnover. Americans spend for patriotic reasons, not because they are materialistic. So, perhaps a $600 cheque per person is enough to inject enough money into the US economy until the next US election.
Khaled, London,
Bush's speech on the fiscal package made me laugh, he said the American consumer would go out and buy something with their rebate check and that meant someone in some factory would get to make it, yeah, like anything is still made in the USA!! LOL, just about everything apart from vehicles and 747's are made outside the US. So this huge fiscal package will do a nice job on the deficit. No?
Rob Dunford, London,
Aren't Apple Ipods and most consumer electronics made in china?
Makes sense to prop up the china economy.
andy , petersfield,
Sounds like a flat screen TV and an apple Ipod will be of great use for alot of the poorest members of the american society that have not got enough money to cover rent, mortgage or food, yet alone health insurance that nevers gets paid out to them.
Specially as it is those that are the worst off in the fall out of the sub-prime mess that has caused the slow down i the first place.
How a months delay on reposession and renegotions and a couple of grand back is going to help them in the longer term, who knows.
However this demonstrates a lack of a government understanding of the causes of the issues and how to tackle them.
Crap we're in a mess quick spend more of what you don't have.
Rob, ex Notts UK, Vancouver BC
Apple is great example of money staying here....sort of. But, I feel there will be a huge influx of imported goods on "sale" at your local big box mart with most of the money spent going overseas. Maybe Apple should get into the 'flat screen HDTV for under 1200 dollars' business. And this is only because they have great margins for an American company. Keeping it in the local economy is the key to this package really working.
Mike, Milwaukee, USA