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House prices will fall by 15 per cent in the next two years, pushing one in ten homeowners into negative equity, a leading investment bank has forecast.
Morgan Stanley predicts that 1.2 million people will be in negative equity, owing more money on their mortgage than their home is worth — levels not seen since the early 1990s.
Those affected cannot move house easily unless they raise finance elsewhere to pay off their home loan. They must either stay put and pay their mortgage bills, or sell at a loss.
First-time owners will be particularly badly affected. Five per cent took out a loan of 100 per cent or more of the purchase price of a property last year. Morgan Stanley also suggests that if house prices fall by 25 per cent over the next two years, more than two million — or a quarter of all borrowers — would be in negative equity.
The report’s authors, including David Miles, who has written a Treasury-backed report on mortgages, even gave warning that their figures may be too conservative as they did not include mortgages taken out this year.
The Bank of England’s chief economist also sounded a warning to homeowners that house prices were likely to remain exposed to further falls in coming months. Charles Bean dampened hopes that the Bank would help to bolster the property market with further cuts in interest rates, saying that it was still “walking a tightrope” between threats to economic growth and dangers from inflation.
Highlighting the vulnerability of house prices to fresh falls, Professor Bean said that a continued short supply of new home loans was likely to keep the economy’s activity subdued and “put further downward pressure on house prices relative to earnings”.
He challenged claims that a housing slump will undercut consumer spending, saying the slowdown so far had been “relatively modest”. He said the toll would be offset by a 12 per cent fall in the pound — roughly equivalent to a 3 percentage point cut in base rates.
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I am somewhat very concerned that Morgan Stanley, with its historic hands in the Federal Reserve and the Bank Of England, choses to post positive results whilst other banks which are the donkeys of the the central financial system go bust and plead for assistance. This close affiliation to the reseverve banks have always put Morgan Stanley in the forefront of postive or negative predicition according on how the centrals banks directs information via them to the public domain. JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are they same sheep in wolves clothing. They will rape the financial world for their beneifts. Their profits will never be affected whilst they run to take advange of job lots like Bear steirns and other securities,land,gold,diamonds etc which they can get their hands on in favour of cheap paper money, akin to the time when Morgan Stanley once printed its own US dollar and forced on the US economy. BUST! this worn will never affect JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.What a rip-off!!
W George, London, UK
'Suggesting that the property market is so tightly driven by mortgage supply is an error'.
Michael, London, UK
Er, really? So if mortgages were non-existent so that houses could be puchased by cash-buyers only, sales would still be at today's prices? I think not somehow.
Paul, Coventry,
Quite frankly those people who has used their houses like AMT's now need to deal with their stupidity and accept that houses don't always go up.
Those of you who think that negative equity is only a problem if you need to move need to wake up and smell the coffee, its all about affordability and mark my words once these millions of people who has over extended themselves have their mortgages reset forclosures will go through the roof and prices will eventually crash by 50%.
BTW, if Gordon Brown thinks that inflating an already inflated market is the answer he is sadly mistaken.
Steve, Middlesex,
Negative equity is only a problem if you need to move. Few people really have to move, though there will be some. The rest just need to sit tight, keep paying the mortgage and wait for inflation to bring them back into positive equity. The way things are going on true inflation (despite our deceitful government's self-serving stats) it won't take long.
Colin, shrewsbury,
The Morgan Stanley analysis is hypothetical and will fall apart if the Treasury steps in to act as some form of guarantor for mortgages. Worst of all, their analysis confuses the mortgage market with the property market. One is about demand for and supply of property, the other demand for and supply of mortgages. They are connected but not linked to the extent that this research suggests.
Demand for property is driven by factors such as population levels, demographics, family structure/composition, unemployment levels, and income levels. It can be constrained by factors such as mortgage supply and property numbers.
Suggesting that the property market is so tightly driven by mortgage supply is an error.
Michael, London, UK
I fail to understand why some folk are so agitated at the prospect of a grossly inflated housing/asset bubble deflating.
Perhaps these angst ridden people are either terrified BTLers or idle Estate Agents!
Tom, Axminster, Devon
Natalie, Kettering. Are you missing a decimal point? 16% per annum over 15 years would increase the value of a £100,000 house to over £1 million. This seems pretty dramatic to me.
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Don't trust these prophets of doom!
Mr Brown has told us not to worry because our economy, under his stewardship, is so strong that we British can ride out the credit crunch, unscathed.
Please don't say that you don't believe him!
jinette bond, morecambe, england
Here in the East Midlands our Georgian house has gone up in value by 16% p.a.on average in the last 15 years, although we are under 60 mins by train from London St Pancras International. Not all the areas of the country have seen the same dramatic price increases reported in the media. I presume therefore that our houses here have always been better value and our area of the country will not see the same drop in value that you predict?
Natalie, Kettering, UK
It is a correction that we all expected some years earlier. Didn't we?
Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany
"...Whilst most of us are going to lose a few hundred thousand pounds or so..." But only on paper. If you don't have to sell or re-finance it has no effect whatsoever. Just sit tight, keep on paying the mortgage, and wait for the inevitable swing to restore values. Meanwhile stop worrying over it!
S. Barraclough, Huddersfield, W. Yorkshire
The moral of the story is don't withdraw equity from the current inflated 'value' of the property you have taken a loan on in order to finance other spending. If you have done so already, you have no genuine cause for complaint should the equity in that property be less than the money you owe on it.
Paul, Coventry,
I think it is important to put the current house price predictions in to context.
Whilst most of us are going to lose a few hundred thousand pounds or so, spare a thought for the less fortunate among us, a 15% down turn in prices could really hit the Duke of Westminster; perhaps Gordon should put a rescue package together!
I think we should all consider ourselves very lucky. Those poor landowners are being dealt a double-whammy, with current fuel prices spiralling out of control it must be make driving the perimeter of one's estate a jolly expensive affair!
David, Warks,