Antonia Senior, Deputy Business Editor
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This is the week that the credit crunch became personal.
The big banks are suffering from a vicious circle brought on by the squeeze on their money supply that is damaging their business and our mortgages - and the average consumer is about to become sickeningly and personally acquainted with it.
Take Bank A. Its whole way of business is funded by borrowing. The squeeze means that cheap sources of debt have dried up and the other banks, which used to lend to Bank A, are not willing to keep funding its debt habit. Bank A’s ability to keep funding its business is in doubt. It retrenches, stops spending on gaining new business and crosses its fingers in the hope that things will magically get better.
So far, so familiar. But now take the average consumer couple, with a mortgage, a credit card, perhaps a car loan. Mr and Mrs Average’s whole way of life is funded by borrowing. The credit crisis means that cheap sources of debt have dried up and the banks, such as Bank A, are no longer willing to keep funding the Averages’ debt habit. They are retrenching, cutting down on savings and retreating from the housing market.
The Averages, like Bank A, are crossing their fingers and hoping that things will magically get better.
There are parallels between the squeeze on the banks and the squeeze on consumers. But Mr and Mrs Average are facing additional problems caused by inflation. Long believed to be almost extinct, inflation is making worrying inroads and consumers are starting to feel the pinch.
This week a host of inflation-busting increases come into force: on utility bills, council tax and petrol. Mr and Mrs Average’s household bills are climbing, and their wages are not yet compensating for this. The Treasury is not suffering; the tax take has grown from 35.7 per cent of GDP in 1997 to 36.8 per cent in this tax year.
Nonetheless, the looming pain would be manageable were it not for the unfolding crisis in the mortgage market. Most of us are in unfamiliar territory - we are used to a mortgage market in which lenders fall over one another to offer ever cheaper deals. We are now seeing a market in which lenders fall over one another to offer ever more uncompetitive deals. In the current climate the last thing any lender wants is anyone actually borrowing from them.
This is creating a bizarre parallel universe in which lenders compete to be bottom of the best-buy tables.
The crunch has turned into a mortgage squeeze. Part of the reason for this lies in the continued unwillingness of banks to lend to each other, which makes it near impossible for them to fund cheap deals. Bankers are retreating to old models where mortgages are backed by savings; but we are not saving enough to fund our thirst for borrowing.
Northern Rock, that enduring symbol of the banking crisis, continues to send ripples of misery out into the market. Once Britain’s fastest-growing lender, it is now its fastest-shrinking lender. About £30 billion of Northern Rock loans reach the end of their terms each year, and the bank cannot renew them - especially while it is paying off its £24 billion debt to the Treasury. The mortgage market, already suffering from the credit crunch, is finding it difficult to absorb the Rock’s unwanted customers.
So mortgages are getting rarer and more expensive, just as the confidence is beginning to seep out of the housing market. Into this mire steps Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, who has the power to cut interest rates when the Monetary Policy Committee meets next week. But just as Mr and Mrs Average are caught in a vice of rising inflation and mortgage misery, so is the Governor. If he cuts rates, he runs the danger of fuelling inflation - but doing nothing will hardly support the faltering mortgage market.
Even if Mr King does defy expectations and cut rates, however, this may not have the desired effect. The problems facing the banks and the mortgage market run deeper than a single rate cut can reach.
The really worrying idea for Mr and Mrs Average is that Mr King and the Treasury seem powerless to unwind this mess. Everyone, from the banks to the Governor, seems to be crossing fingers and hoping.
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If we all woke up tomorrow and house prices had fallen by half, would it really matter? OK, you've lost imaginary money you were never going to actually realise, but your next house is now affordable - great!
Dean Hallett, Basingstoke, Hants UK
Inflation extinct?
Yeah, thats why Gold is up 400%
Dominic, Manchester, UK
Back in 1995 I had a 30,000 mortgage and earned about 14,000. The mortgage rate was10% = paying 3,000 p.a. from a gross of 14,000 = about 21% of gross salary.
Today, average mortgage = about 100,000 and I'd be earning about 35,000 and the mortgage rate is about 6%
= about 17% of gross salary.
What the hell are people complaining about?
Clive, Monterrey , Mexico
Indeed cutting interest rate isn't the answer and certainly wont help anyone except the Banks. look at the US, where the FED interest rate is around 3%, but the cheapest mortgage deal you can find is around 6%. There's only one way out of this. A huge rebalancing of house prices, everyone who has contributed to this hosing crisis will now ultimately suffer as a result of their own greed. What we're in now is pay-back period, inflation will not continue to wipe out debt as it has done due to house price increases.
Darren, London,
I don't think a rate cut would do any good, the banks would still hike rates demanded from borrowers, but would have the excuse to slash the interest paid to savers.
John Webster, Aylesbury Vale, Bucks
We are getting back to the fundamentals when banks were banks and not casinos for over-paid under brained traders.
Frederick, London, UK
It would appear the moral to all this is do not fund a lifestyle by borrowing. Cash will soon be back in fashion.
If people do not borrow to fund lifestyles then banks will be forced to return to mortgage lending to fuel their business.
As, like any business, they are unable to continually turn their money over they will go to the 'wall'.
M.Butcher, W-s-M, England