Andrew Ellson
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
The news that yet another lender has withdrawn from the mortgage market is undoubtedly bad news for borrowers but there is no cause for panic. Anyone with a good credit history and a reasonable amount of equity in their property should still have no trouble finding a home loan. In most cases, borrowers looking to re-mortgage will still be able to find deals better than their existing lender’s standard variable rate.
However, the fact that lenders are now competing not to have the best deals means that the cost of loans is creeping higher. Nor is there any guarantee that a cut in the Bank of England base rate widely expected next week will make the situation better.
The essential problem is that lenders with the best deals are attracting more customers than their wholesale lending, deposit taking or administration capacity will allow. Borrowers who have a chequered credit history, little equity in their home, or first time-buyers with no deposit face the biggest increase in rates because with house prices falling they are perceived as a greater risk.
Indeed, the biggest threat of this latest phase of tightening in mortgage lending is the impact it will have on house prices.
The less the banks are prepared to lend, and the higher the rates they are prepared to lend at, the less money there is swilling around to support house prices. If house prices therefore start a significant shift downwards, the banks will become even more reluctant to lend because they will be worried about bad debts and negative equity. This in turn will mean even less money available to support prices and we may enter a destructive cycle that leads to a full scale slump in property values.
Nonetheless, this still remains a worst case scenario. The Bank of England may soon lower the cost of borrowing, which should support confidence and eventually make mortgages cheaper. Also, while levels of employment remain high, demand for property should remain reasonably robust and there will not be enough homeowners selling for “distressed” reasons to undermine the market.
Over time, with concerted action by central banks, the credit crunch should ease. The wholesale money markets should improve and banks will once again start competing for home loans. However, that is the best-case scenario and remains some way off yet.
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
We explore leisure activities that are safe and suitable for all of the family
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
See the best entries in this year's competition
Your brain is capable of more than you might think...
An interactive preview of the brand new For Your Eyes Only exhibition
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers

Love Sudoku? Play our brand new interactive game: with added functionality and daily prizes

Are you irritable when you return from work? Drained of emotion? You could be suffering from boreout
Prepare for some shock and awe, petrol lovers. Despite the greens trying to wipe it out, the car is about to offer us the most exciting year ever
We've trawled the brochures and websites to find this summer’s best holidays for every taste and budget

Our Credit Clinic has free help and advice
2002/02
£59,995
The Midlands
2008/08
£169,950
Scotland
2007/57
£35,000
South East England
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £82,000 per annum
Birmingham Women's Hospital
Birmingham
To £28k
Barclaycard
Various (outside London)
£
Up to £66,000 per annum
Hertfordshire County Council
South East
To £38k
Barclaycard
Northampton/Liverpool
2 Bathrooms, Balcony and Garden
Beautiful Gardens w/ stunning Thames Views
Apts From £249,950
Mortgages, bank acc & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Explore mystical Jordan
From £1030 for 7nts 4*
to USA's Most Cosmopolitan City; San Francisco!
£POA
Book Now for Winter 08/09 and Get 10% off!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property.
© Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
RICS stated last July that prices were about to rise by 40% in the next 5 years.I stated that they would fall by a similar amount.There may be a demand to buy but what about the demand for cheap credit that would be necessary for this fantasy fairytale to happen?Would they like to comment?
stephen hulton, eure, france
Your reasoning is awful. It sounds like a party political announcement for the entrenched interests of the estate agent and mortgage broker brigade.
Lets face facts. Property prices have been overcooked in a speculative bubble. YES, demand has risen. Not by 300% though. demographics support a tiny amount of the price rise.
Demand has risen because there has been a slew of cheap money washing around because of a politicised low interest, low inflation 'growth' (for growth read DEBT, public and private) period. With everyone feeling burnt by shares after the last bubble (remember tech stocks... they only go up right? ... like property... ), where else to make a buck? Wages certainly werent rising. Property cant fail...
Lowering interest rates is going to do nothing. The mortgage rates have decoupled.
Watch it fail. Big time. INTEREST ONLY MORTGAGES... THEY ARE OUR SUBPRIME... NO REPAYMENT VEHICLE... BUY TO LET... WHY WOULD YOU WANT AN INTEREST ONLY MORTGAGE WHEN PRICES FALL?
mark hockings, london, uk
If there are any more first time buyers out there who wish to take the plunge NOW please read some of the comments about this article. There may be pent up demand. There may be small reductions available now. But there certinly isn't the finace available at anything like a reasonable rate and most first time buyers are facing asking prices beyond any sensible multiple of their monthly income.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
"...The cause of the house-price collapse back in the early 90's was the unpredented dumping onto the market of millions of cheap ex-council homes now in private ownership...."
Is this some estate agent assuring a dead market? This was NOT the case at all. It was high gearing or high multiples to income the ratios of which we have far surpassed this time....
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
The cause of the house-price collapse back in the early 90's was the unpredented dumping onto the market of millions of cheap ex-council homes now in private ownership.
There is no equivalent phenomenon at the moment, therefore, the underlying picture has not changed, namely that of a market with demand that is more turbulent than supply, but which consistently out grows it. Therefore, the medium and longer term housing market crisis, remains that of prices rising without bound.
Ingslot, London, UK
Interesting comments from people "vultures" waiting in the wings for a property price crash. The problem in the logic is that driving property prices down wont alleviate the problem currently being faced - no banks willing to lend the cash to buy a property - hence the only winner's in the scenario are those buyers who are "cashed up" and capable of buying properties without lender's assistance. Prices crashing as many people here predict (hope) will result in further tightening of the credit policies of lenders and a further more towards only those borrowers who are "Super Prime!". Be careful what you wish for.....
Fredi Kanoute, Battersea,
I am a first time buyer buying now - we got about 10% off our house and have secured it with an over 100% mortgage which i doubt today we would be able to get and i doubt in the next two years we would be able to get. I am solicitor and want a house i dont want to rent anymore and I plan on living in it for about 10 years. They accepted our offer a few months ago and today contracts havent been signed yet but i have continued looking at other properties and most i looked at oringinally have gone, other than a few that have lost about 10-15% of their asking price. (i doubt they all took big price cuts??!?! but who knows)
No one is going to accept 50% less its mad - infact a lot of people even if they are in "dire straights" just wouldnt bother getting divorced !!!!
i know a lot of first time buyers who are still buying mortgage are still available just not at 2% anymore.
Helen P, Leeds,
As a young couple aspiring to buy our first home we have spent the last couple of years saving a deposit. We have along the way been told by various friends and relatives that we were 'crazy' to save, and that we should take-out a 100% interest-only mortgage on a fixed-term introductory rate (Northern Rock were doing good deals!). We looked at the numbers and found we could afford the repayments on year one, we'd struggle on year two, but by year three our repayments would have nearly doubled. "Don't worry about that", they said, "when the deal expires you can just remortgage". This was the 'conventional wisdom' at the time, and was endlessly repeated in newspaper columns, lifestyle magazines and television shows.
Thank god we didn't take their advice!
Chris, London,
lets be honest the only way prices will drop in real terms is when we buys start putting in proper offers for houses. There are plenty of people out there who are in dire straights, I personally feel sorry for thier foolishness of buys at an inflated price. This won't stop me putting in offers at 50% of the asking price, even if it is against the advice of the estate agent who is trying to hold the prices up in the area.
I say now is the time to buy at 50% of asking price, and if you get 1 in 10 accepting your offer so be it, the other 19 will get the the same price in 6 months anyway.
if you've got some cash in the bank and are in the market for a house then go for it, you've got nothing to loose.
p.s. once the actual sold prices are published with land registry, the surveyers will start driving the price, as the estate agent still try and fool the market.
Happy hunting
Ravi S, Birmingham,
Noone will pay today`s price for a house knowing that in a few weeks it could be thousands lower.
MR R J JONES, Leicester, Leicestershire