Grainne Gilmore and James Rossiter
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More evidence of the weakening housing market emerged yesterday when figures showed that house prices had fallen by 1 per cent in the three months to January.
Halifax said that the cost of an average home last month was, at £197,244, only £80 more than it had been in December, but the largest mortgage lender in Britain brushed off forecasts of a housing slump this year or next. Martin Ellis, chief economist at Halifax, said: “We expect a more subdued market, but we don’t expect any falls in UK house prices on a national level. Some regions may experience slight falls, but these will be balanced by increases in the South of England and Scotland.”
Figures released last week by Nationwide, the second-biggest lender, indicated that house prices had fallen by 0.1 per cent in January, the third consecutive monthly decrease.
Worries over the housing market have spread to Central London, where prices for prime houses and flats in the £1 million to £2 million bracket were flat, Knight Frank, the estate agent, reported. Prices of Central London property worth up to £1 million rose by only 0.2 per cent in January, while homes priced in the £1 million to £5 million bracket rose by 0.7 per cent as demand fell among bankers with smaller bonuses to spend.
However, an unexpected surge in demand for homes worth £5 million or more in Mayfair, Chelsea, Belgravia and Knightsbridge pushed up prices for all of the prime Central London market by 1 per cent during January.
Liam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, said that he expected London house-price inflation for 2008 in the £1 million to £2 million bracket “to be not much more than zero”, compared with 5 per cent growth in house prices in the £5 million to £10 million bracket and 8 per cent in the £10 million-plus bracket.
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, said: “The fact that house prices did not plunge in January reinforces belief that the Bank of England will limit a widely expected interest-rate cut on Thursday to 25 basis points from 5.50 per cent to 5.25 per cent.”
However, a KPMG survey also found that nearly one in four borrowers were struggling to meet their monthly loan payments.
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In response to James Smith from Wales.I have lived and worked in France for 5 years and the way that the UK economy is going,it looks like I'll be staying here for another 5 years.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Why don't the Times discuss houses for billionaires ?They are increasing at 5-15% a year. However, most of us (an understatement) don't really care about billionaires house prices.
Angelina Zara, Kensington, London
All come up to Liverpool where diddly-do says luxury houses are being built. You will have a great view of the river and there are loads of things to do for everyones taste. London has always been too expensive and it wont change now.
den.liverpool
den, Liverpool, UK
Raj - nice to hear you recycling comments from various pescimistic sources in the media - don't believe everything one reads in the papers - don't even let me get started on statistics!
TS, hove, uk/sussex
Read the article not the Headline!!!!. nowhere does it say in the article that house prices are going to fall
HRT, Forfar,
The major cities in the country are awash with speculative building projects. Liverpool river frontage, near the albert Dock has huge amounts of speculative new buildings of every sort - Office, shop and residential. I have lived there all my life and I cannot imagine where the people will come from to occupy these buildings at the rentals and prices demanded. Manchester is in a similar position, though as it isn't a 'city of culture' the pace is not quite so frenetic. The banks are going to get lumbered with this problem evenualy, they are so mesmerised by the figures of growth in the past, they cannot see what is so clear to anyone who cares to get out of the office and look around. As anyone wanting to buy now would be a fool when prices are on the skids it is clear that we are on the start of a steep downward spiral to where more normal values are demanded for property. This will be welcome news to potential buyers, but this bubble bursting will cause many casualties.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
I don't want to 'feel' wealthy, I want to BE wealthy.
I would hope house prices fall 50 %. When I trade up my mortgage will be 50% less (give or take) thereore more money for me to spend down the shops, thereby boosting the economy.
Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany
Unemployment started rising AFTER the last crash started, not before. In 2005 rates fell from 4.75% to 4.5. This time they cut from 5.75 to 5.5. Even at 5, that is still higher than 2005 and on more debt.
Demand does not drive prices, ability to pay does. We are returning to normal conditions i.e. no self-certilied, high income multiples, or low deposits. London prices fell by 30% in the 1990sâ¦it had the same "pillars" then as well.
The trigger in the 1990s was not high rates in themselves but the payment level. 6% on 300k is the same as 15% on 100k. Last time we did not have BTLâ¦they will be another trigger. Shortages? In 1991 there was 1 house for every 2.44 persons, now there is 1 for every 2.31 persons.
Look at Japan etcâ¦lower interest rates and unemployment, less land, high popn growth, desire to own a home. All applied in many places until the crashes as liquidity disappeared. The US has lower unemployment and rates but is seeing the first national falls since the DEPRESSION.
Raj, London,
House prices will fall back to sensible levels based on borrowings of 3 to 4 times gross salary. The only question is whether there will be a short sharp crash or a prolonged slump lasting nearly a decade. The BoE's rate cutting policy is for no one's benefits other than the clown in 10 Downing Street hoping to still be there next year by trying to delay the inevitable until after the general election.
Paul, Coventry,
This is just the begining of a very dark couple of years cutting interest rates now is not going to stop a dramastic crash in the market. Many people who took out fixed mortgage deals at very attractive rates were already borrowing above there means. This for many was the only way they could get a foot on the ladder however it is like the good old saying what goes up must come down. Peoples pay, energy bills and fuel cost to name a few have not been in line with inflation for a long time if the cost of living is rising and your pay is not it is going to be a repeat of the 80's. First time buyer's are key to the property market but with them all been priced out there is nothing but gloom waiting. America is a prime example of this.
dave, peterlee, co. durham
Fears? Worries? I think you mean hope - hope that prices might crash and that people who aren't bankers might one day be able to afford to own a modest property and bring up a family.
Why do these articles always talk about million pound houses in West London anyway? Very few people actually live like that you know.
Matt, Southampton,
The markets are now talking themselves into a crash now even after unemployment has dropped.
Dave B, kelso, borders
The headline of this article should have been used when house prices were soaring.
Mr KIng and Mr Brown should have read it and taken dampening down action.
To their eternal shame,they did not!
nic, royan , france
andrew and stephen, I agree with you !
riccardo, brussels,
Interest rates are being used - and abused - to support a bubble in house prices, at the cost of inflation.
Rates should be going up, not down!
Michael, Windsor,
House price changes are irrelevant to the MPC - unless they think it affects monetary stability (defined in their remit as controlling the rate of inflation - the CPI target - and maintaining confidence in the currency - so no sudden sell offs).
They did not raise rates as house prices went up - so why should they cut as house prices go down? There is no logic in these calls from vested interests.
The MPC needs to reflect on its remit and decide whether rates are set right accordingly - not twist and turn with every anguished gasp of the indebted consumer or leveraged business.
Father Ignatius Brown, London, UK
Central London property is way overvalued. It will fall by 30%
Richard, Maidenhead,
"Fears for the housing market spread to prime Central London"? fears for who? estate agents? lenders? BTLers & speculators? Developers? Prices have soared for years and few can afford the sums required any more. Little to do with IRs - which lenders are not passing on anyway. Mere mortals such as us are finally starting to hope that we may be able to afford somewhere decent to live and bring up our families. Let the greedy vested interests above suffer....as we have done
Davie P, London,
What the hell has Mr Hulton got to contribute? He is in FRANCE! Interest rate cut I say!
James Smith, Wrexham, UK
I agree with the last comment.The BOE should raise interest rates today.House prices are not wiyhin their remit,inflation is.Inflation is rising so why the need for a rate cut?
stephen hulton, eure, france
How about putting intrest rates up to bring about an adjustment in house prices so that people who at present stand zero chance of owning their own property may at last have a glimmer of hope? It seems the main reason for lowering is to make those lucky enough to have a house to borrow more and more.
anrew edginton, ruislip, england