Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Faltering house prices staged a pre-Christmas fightback, rebounding sharply last month after falling for the previous three months in a row, the latest snapshot of the property market from Halifax suggested yesterday.
The nation’s biggest mortgage lender said that average national house prices, based on its loans to homebuyers, jumped by 1.3 per cent during December. The last-minute rally reversed the 1.3 per cent slump in prices that Halifax’s figures show took place in November, and also followed reported declines of 0.7 per cent in October, and 0.6 per cent in September.
The December bounce left prices only modestly lower, by 0.8 per cent, over the final quarter of last year as a whole. The falls in prices suffered in the closing months of last year were still enough, however, to cut the annual pace of house price inflation sharply, to its lowest for two years - leaving little doubt over the continued weakening trend in the market.
Home values in the final quarter of 2007 were only 5.2 per cent higher than in the same period in 2006. That marked an abrupt decline from the double-digit pace of increase seen during the autumn, when house price inflation peaked at 11.4 per cent. 2007 as a whole also marked only the second year since 2001 when house prices have risen by less than the long-term average of 8 per cent.
Halifax’s data shows that British house prices climbed by an average of £11,759 last year, to £197,03, but have still soared by 182 per cent over the past decade - almost trebling from £70,000 at the end of 1997 soon after Labour came to power.
The better than expected December figures may still ease pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a further quarter-point cut in interest rates tomorrow, on the heels of last month’s reduction, amid fears that the sliding property market will undercut consumer spending and broader economic growth.
But Halifax gave warning that December’s price bounce did not signal that worries over the housing market outlook can be dismissed. It renewed its prediction that prices will remain flat, on average, for this year as a whole. Halifax said a mixed pattern of monthly rises and falls in prices, as seen at the end of last year, a typical sign of the housing market becoming subdued. At the time of the last significant slowdown, between July 2004 and the following summer, Halifax’s figures had shown six monthly falls in prices, and six increases. A similar pattern was also seen during 2000.
Some economists also raised doubts over the Halifax figures, contrasting its report of a steep rise in home values in December with the findings of Nationwide that prices fell by 0.5 per cent in December.
A further slide in approvals of new mortgages for homebuyers also added to evidence yesterday that the market continues to cool. The value of new home loans agreed by lenders, seen as a key barometer of market trends, fell in November to its lowest for seven months, at £12.2 billion, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported. The number of loans agreed also dropped by 3.1 per cent to 80,000.
The decline in approvals of loans for housebuyers was accompanied by an even sharper drop in loans agreed for remortgaging, so that total mortgage lending in November was sharply lower, by 10 per cent from the level a year before, at some £30 billion, the CML said. However, Michael Coogan, its director-general, said that business activity in the mortgage market was holding up “reasonably well”, despite the pressure on lending conditions from the impact of the credit squeeze on institutions’ funding.
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A block of flats in Leeds has recently been put in mothballs rather than completed. Very telling.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Have the Halifax got the same man doing these figures who calculates the government inflation figure that puts inflation at 2.4%?
Simon, Chatham, Kent
No John we are not laughing at you just relieved that prices will regain normality.
Some of us did not move or 'gamble', [which is what the housing market has become.] because the odds of winning looked too risky.
But back to the apparent price increase; My guess is all the talk of interest rate reductions coming spurred some more 'gamblers' back into the market.
Lucy, London,
Anna, from Birmingham. I think you have hit the nail on the head.
The average is for mortgage approvals, NOT as the Halifax would have us believe, house prices.
On the 29th of December the Nationwide reported house price deflation of 0.5%. Add that to the previous three months of falls and it gives you a reduction in prices of 3%. Forecast that over the next Twelve months and we could easily be looking at prices being between 10-12% lower than they are now and still falling.
This i believe, will be enough to instill a panic throughout many of Britains home owners, who are relying on the value of their homes to keep them out of a financial quagmire.
Where do these 'professionals', think we as a nation, are going to find a Trillion pounds if property prices slump?
Hopefully, when they take their cow to market, someone may give them some magic beans!
Stuart, Sheffield, UK
Why is it I wonder
That negative equity
Sparks such abundant
display of felicity?
Is it a rubberneck reaction
to another man's pain,
or the smug satisfaction
of tenants set to gain?
I know not the source
or cause of such glee,
though you should feel remorse
as you're laughing at me!
John Pownall, Bridport,
Do you think it may be possible that the increase in "average" prices may be due to the current unwillingness of lenders to finance people with poor credit histories - generally people who would go on to purchase lower end-of-market properties. This would lead to the average price going up, as less mortgages for "cheaper" property = imbalance of property types being sold = higher "average" property prices. Or is this just wishful thinking?
Anna, Birmingham, UK
David Sindall , I wonder if you will put your property on the market on for a realistic price when you come to sell. Like most people, the greed will get to you and you will only blame your estate agent when you dont sell. People always need someone to blame.
Rich, Worcester,
Have those writing in support of the 'bounce back' theory actually read the rest of this newspaper? The global financial system is at risk of meltdown, the UK is particularly vulnerable because of the economy's reliance on the financial sector, the UK population has a collective debt of well over a trillion pounds - yet you still think that the property market will remain strong and not crash? I can only think that you fit one or more of the following categories: an estate agent or property investor, desperate to save your job/investment; taking some 'happy pill' or another prescribed by your doctor and so totally detached from reality; insane. Any other possible explanations gratefully received.
Graham, Oxford, UK
There are some interesting facts about the way in which the Halifax calculate their figures: -
1) sales significantly below market value are excluded (ex- Council properties).
2) the figures include accepted mortgage offers that may never actually be taken up if the sale does not go to completion.
3) properties valued at over a million are included in the figures and have been for some years now.
So given the above information it would seem that the only way is up! Take out those offers that do not progress to sale and the picture could be very different indeed.
Andrew, Southport,
The property market vested interest always bring out thefollowing arguements-there is an undersupply-there are thousands desperate to jump on the housing ladder-this is a small island-now is time to spot a bartgain.
They always miss the credit crunch, the overvaluation of property relative to earnings, the approaching recession. Where is the growth coming from in rentals or capital appreciation?
david barker, maidstone,
We're all aware of the inflationary pressures such as rising energy prices etc and the media hype over a property price crash which can be somewhat self-fulfiling.
Not surprisingly, first-time buyers are hesitating to join the "property ladder" and are looking for a "New Year Bargain".
However, we're in a significantly different socio-economic climate compared to immediately prior to the previous house price slump.
Interest rates are relatively low, possibly peaking at the end of a cycle and governed by an "expert" committee rather than a politician.
There are many more investors now (rather than owner-occupiers) with property interests who know the future UK Housing Market growth potential.
Coupled with (even) conservative predictions that demand will outstrip new-build, I believe that homeowners and investors alike are prepared to sit tight, or to "let", in order to protect margins.
I therefore believe any price flattening or "blip" will threlatively short-lived.
Paul Lawrence, Kidderminster, England
Who are you kidding Halifax? This is just another ploy to try and regenerate interest in the market so Halifax can lend more money! Halifax like all mortgage lenders need new borrowers.
George, Glasgow, UK
The problem with the UK housing market is a shortage of supply in quality accomodation combined with an awful loss of dross. This is further complicated by greedy agents who try to force up prices for their own purposes.
I bought a property in W4 in October. It took 7 months of endless searching across an area bounded by Putney and Ealing. My wife and I ruled nothing out but got totally fed up with poor agents, greedy vendors and a market that meant that finding the right property became a full time job.
Estate agents are at the root of this problem with their eyes on their own interest and their duplicious false promises to buyers and sellers alike.
David Sindall, London, GB
Malcolm,
you might want to speak to an IFA, as no-one in their right mind would consider giving personal advice (even if like me, they are Authorised by the FSA to do so) on a public forum with limited information available.
Tim, Expensive but loveley Bristol,
Stephen
Are you totally insane or just blinkered to reality? Undersupply! Have you seen how much inventory there is available in the UK? Have you taken a look on rightmove at all the NOT moving stock and the un-rented houses?
House price increases benefit NO-ONE! It is utter and total madness to want a house to rise in value and in fact why should it rise in value?
This game and it is a game is now over and no matter how much the VI's try to convince the sheeple that it is'nt over it is all the same. You can now look forward to massive inflation as world governments try to inflate away the debt, unemployment and recession and best of all and my personal favorite of all time is that houses will fall by at least 50% in real terms by about 2010.
Hurrahhhhhh
Mark, Peterborough, UK
Dear Sirs,
I have been advised this week that my retirement fund consisting of 50% cash & 50% property held with Friends Provident that the element held in property will not pay out for some 6 months.
I retired on the 31-12-07 & anticipated having both my lump sum & monthly pension being paid out in Jan, however as 50% of my fund is held in property & as they changed the rules from 20th Dec 07 that you have to wait 6 months before they will pay out I am very concerned that during this period if the property market was to crash so would my pension.
Please advise if this is what all pension fund providers are doing & if indeed this is legal, also what recall may I & others have on the goverment to assist with any such loss.
Thank You
Malcolm Mayne, South Shields, Tyne & Wear
Sorry to burst your bubble Stephen but over stretched borrowers in the UK won't be given more loans to blow on over priced property. As for lack of housing inventory, take a trip down to your local estate agent and ask if they have any property for sale on their books. The UK is tied to the US and we will go down with them. As the sterling weakens more we will find inflation picking up fast. House prices may not drop in real terms but when petrol costs 3 GBP a litre and bread 5 GBP a loaf who cares if a plasma TV is 10 per cent less than last year. Gordons miracle is being exposed for what it is. One large spree on the countries credit card.
Edward, London,
The housing market has reached a very interesting junction in a tug-of-war between under-supply and increasing uncertainty caused by lending conditions. I believe that the current acute lack of supply will win through, limiting the potential for a significant fall in prices. I suspect that only a further economic shock or escalation of existing UK inflationary pressures might upset this outcome, and lead to a house price correction which is helpful to those unable to step onto the elusive property ladder.
Stephen Chapelhow, Newcastle upon Tyne, England