Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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Britain’s mortgage lenders face a £30 billion funding shortfall next year if the Bank of England does not step in to ease the credit squeeze, the industry’s lobby group said yesterday.
As much as a third of the £90 billion required to finance the demand for mortgage loans expected next year will need to come from money markets that effectively have been closed since August, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.
But as the CML pleaded with the Bank to intervene to prevent a severe contraction in the availability of mortgages, banks were told to get their own house in order by the City’s regulator.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said that lending conditions could get worse and that lenders should forgo profits to protect themselves against a collapse in liquidity of the sort that crippled Northern Rock.
The stark warnings, presented yesterday at the CML’s annual conference in London, come at a time of deepening gloom over Britain’s mortgage market. New loans for house purchase are down by 31 per cent over the past year and all big surveys have shown house prices falling in recent months.
Funding stresses in the London money markets continue to mount. One-month sterling interest rates for loans between banks rose still further yesterday, after they leapt on Monday to a nine-year high, registering the sharpest gains for 13 years.
Michael Coogan, the director-general of the CML, said that the Bank of England needed to take the lead in restoring confidence by allowing a wider range of mortgage-backed assets to be posted as collateral against loans. He said: “It is not an arcane issue – this is an issue that could affect every consumer in the UK. If the markets don’t open up we will have a much smaller, less innovative mortgage market going forward.”
The Bank should also help to restore confidence in wholesale markets by cutting interest rates tomorrow, he added.
But Clive Briault, the head of retail markets at the FSA, said that banks should “assume that market conditions will remain very difficult for a sustained period”.
He urged them to ensure that they had adequate levels of liquidity, despite the higher costs involved at present. “But it would be prudent to pay a correspondingly high price – and to forgo some profits – to secure this protection, or otherwise to scale back balance-sheet growth,” he said.
Firms should carry out robust stress testing and examine what state they would be in if they had no or only limited access to wholesale funding for a sustained period, Mr Briault said. They should also make contingency plans for the worst outcomes.
He told lenders: “There is almost certainly more change to come. It is very unlikely that we will return to the conditions that prevailed before August . . . It is clear that some business models are no longer as economically viable as they used to be.”
Homeowners with high loan-to-value ratios on their mortgages will face heavy difficulties refinancing their loans next year and many will face unaffordable rates, he said, but banks should not forget their obligation to treat struggling customers fairly.
Mr Briault added that sub-prime borrowers might not have access to the market at any price until normal conditions returned.
The mood was darkened further by a research note from Morgan Stanley, the Wall Street bank, saying that it had removed Bradford & Bingley from its banking portfolio. “Our UK banks analysts suggest international investors should avoid UK banks at the moment, given the structural and systemic issues,” it read.
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It would appear that Mr Briault wants to have his cake and eat it. On the one hand he is saying you naughty banks you have lent recklessly so get a grip. By the way you must not get a grip by recovering your most reckless loans. Either the FSA wants better management of loans or not but to dictate how these should be achieved with no repercussions falling on the FSA is somehat trite.
John McDonagh, Sale,
Too many people have borrowed too much money they simply cannot repay and cutting rates to zero will not help these people. It would probably encourage them to borrow even more!!
The banks are in for a tough time and they deserve to be punished for their reckles lending over the past several years, just as those who borrowed too much.
The buy it now pay later culture has to stop sometime and there has to be soe pain to stop it happening again.
Darren, Chelmsford
darren coates, chelmsford, uk
Banks keep bleating about "when the credit markets return to normality"...the point is they have returned to normality and the reckless lending practices of the last 6 years are just an aberration, along with the insanley high houseprices that reckless lending has fuelled.
If banks want to lend more money they need to do it the normal way..ie attract deposits and lend that out..
Adam Granite, newcastle,
Why is it that when you type the pound sign (£) in a reply it appears with a funny character before it? Can't somebody fix that?
John, London,
The fact of the matter is there is still a lot of crap on banks balance sheets. ABN, Barc, Goldman's et. al. all have significant right downs to still announce. The market knows this and it is reflected in their share price, with investment banks down up to 50% this year! Resultantly as banks have their own balance sheet to prop up and own liabilities to write down, they know that by lending USD to each other they are only increasing their exposure to the current crisis.
In my view the BOE pumping funds into the inter bank market is really only a short term fix to help stabailise partly the property market. Essentially it is the end of a cycle, after a ten year bull period it is now time for the cyclical downturn.
Jor, Radlett,
It seems to me the advice itself adds to the fears and thereby the problem itself. This will only lead to more capital hoarding and sclerosis in the capital markets.
Not dissimilar to the great requirement it made on life insurers to sell shares at the bottom of the market to 'protect' their capital.
The FSA could do their job a little more quietly and a little more in advance....stress testing an outbreak of bird flu but not a credit crunch...give me strength.
harry e, London,
Lobby groups and vested interests,including the government,are piling on the pressure on the MPC to cut rates. It is truly indecent to see that reckless borrowers/lenders are considered far more important than savers.
Obviously we know which way the MPC government appointees are going to vote.
Given that the control of inflation is the mandate of the MPC as has ben stated many times in the past then the only rational decision is to raise rates.
I accept this would be ,to say the least ,difficult, so a hold decision is vital.
To cut rates now would be truly irresponsible,both in the short term and medium term. Who knows about long term anymore?.
nic, royan, france
The FSA has as usual stepped in with totaly inappropriate advice after the action. By suggesting by impplication that institutions hoard cash they are only going to make things much more diiffcult. It is high time the FSA was put out to pasture.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
R.D. Marshal is spot on the ball.
The government cheats by taking liabities (PFI)off its balance sheet for political purposes. Why should we all not join in?
Stephen Green, Correns, France
"If the markets donât open up we will have a much smaller, less innovative mortgage market going forward.â
Unfortunately it's the 'innovation' that has caused all the problems.
Rick, Manchester,
For once the FSA has an idea that is sensible" lenders should forego profits to priotect themselves against a collapse in liquidity" But given the inherent greed of banks there is as much chance of them doing that as all of us suddenly able to walk on water.
What has become clear over these past months is that our Regulators have been living on another planet and kept there by smooth talking bankers desperate to protect their own over valued portfolios of overstated derivitive and other incomprehensible products.
All other companies have to take these errors of judgement on the chin but banks think they can spoof everyone insofar as their assets are worth more than those of other industries.
It 's important banks after 10 years of abusing the system get real and mark there assets to market, bringing everything off balance sheet onto it so that we get the real picture. As of course should this government. What are the odds on both scenarios happening, in short ......zero
Robert D Marshall, London, UK
Why is it that amongst all the doom and gloom regarding the banking crisis/credit crunch, I am still receiving, virtually on a daily basis, letters from Credit Card Companies offering me 0% interest on credit transfers and 0% on purchases and letters from Banks and Building Societies offering me loans at competitive rates?
I agree that I have probably the highest possible credit rating and don't need all these offers but surely there must be tens of millions like me in this country who will keep this country afloat. We are not all up to our eyes in debt, worrying about how we will pay the mortgage.
Running on Empty, Gerrards Cross , Leafy Bucks
Sell and sell fast. Later would be too late..Applies to properties & banking shares..
Kara Swart, London, UK
The Fed Reserve has cut US interest rates by 0.75% and even here LIBOR rates are up. So how does cutting UK interest rates help with the credit cruch. Banks are hoarding cash; not willing to lend to other banks in case they need it themselves. Loans of over $490 billion were made to private equity firms in the 8 months to August 2007, which loans are sitting on the balance sheet of banks (which they cannot syndicate - because investors have fled). When the banks sell those loans to investors, then the credit crunch will come to an end. Investors are willing to buy those loans at a discount. What the banks should do (but won't do) is sell those loans at a loss [say 94p-95p in the £] to clear out their balance sheets. Until those loans are sold, banks will keep running to central banks to assist them and financial markets will seesaw.
Nathan Petrelli, Swindon, England
That sleeping policeman the FSA comes out with advice after the event yet again. If the FSA were a guarddog it would be toothless only waking up when the burglars had trodden on its tail on their way out. Blessed with 20/20 hindsight it struggles to its feet to pose for the cameras before falling asleep, waiting to be stirred into inaction by the next financial calamity it should be on the look out for.
Alan, luton,