Gabriel Rozenberg and James Rossiter
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The housing market will face two years of blight stemming from the impact of the global credit squeeze, with prices falling continuously over much of southern England, a report forecasts today.
Prices are set to fall by as much as 4 per cent in the West Midlands by the end of 2009 and there will also be sharp drops in the East Midlands, the South West and Northern Ireland, according to Experian, the economic forecaster.
However, London is tipped to buck the trend with a 6 per cent rise, slightly above inflation, the report says.
Andrew Burrell, of Experian’s business strategies division, said that GDP growth would slow to just 2.1 per cent next year, from 3.1 per cent in 2007, with an even more abrupt downturn in consumer demand.
The situation could worsen if market interest rates fail to fall in line with official rates, the report said, because lenders would be forced to cut back on issuing new mortgages, resulting in price falls in all regions.
Redrow, one of Britain’s largest builders of affordable homes, added to the gloom surrounding the housing market yesterday as it gave warning that its sale volumes for the second half of this year would be 10 per cent below those achieved last year.
The housebuilder blamed general uncertainties in the banking sector for the sudden drop in buyer confidence since September.
Redrow’s warning has wider resonances beyond the new homes market because it targets the type of buyer who promotes activity in the broader residential homes market.
The housebuilder’s Debut range of starter homes sell for about £79,000, while its core Signature brand of houses and flats go on the market at approximately £168,000. Buyers of these homes are typically first-time buyers or young homeowners who are looking to move up the property ladder.
Redrow’s warning comes just a day after Bovis Homes, one of the country’s leading specialists for selling mid-market homes in the regions priced at less than £250,000, said that its sales volumes this year would be down on last year.
Last week Taylor Wimpey, Britain’s largest builder of new homes, blamed buyer fears about the health of the wider economy as it gave warning that its 2007 UK sales would be 5 per cent lower than last year.
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There is no housing shortage, just a speculative bubble. There will be no surge of housing required for immigrants as when the work dries up most of them will go home or to the next 'hot spot'.
We need a housing correction and thankfully it is on it's way. The BoE should do nothing to prop the market up but let it find it's own level.
Most insiders removed themselves from the risk six months ago......
Tim, Aylesbury, UK
Are we just stupid.Do we expect house prices to everlastingly rise until a modest semi in an ordinary area costs half a million pounds.
Stop implying that a fall in prices is a disaster--it is a blessing.
The alternative is frightening. Frightening not just for young adults today, but for their children tomorrow.
The damage low interest rates and excessive lending/borrowing have done to many,many people is truly scarey.
nic, Royan, f
I sold my buy to let earlier this year for a good profit, I fixed my mortgage at under 5 percent for two years , put the profit in a fixed interest account at over 5 percent , all done on my own judgement ,not an expert opinion in site !Got to ask what value all these experts are to anyones financial well being .Its all very well predicting house price falls in the present environment but what about six months ago?
andrew, leeds, west yorks
Interest rates were to low for to long in the first place, action sooner on would have reduced the problem we have now. Prices need to fall and look as though they will considerably.
With money in the bank I would like them even higher... and lets not forget the banks need to encourage savers now more than ever, if they cannot trust each other enough to lend money they need my cash more than ever!!
Ginge, stockport, UK
The simple solution to this skewed market is to increase supply. Prices just won't fall much until this happens, especially in the South East.
The affordable homes nonsence is a waste of time. It is an effective tax on development, reducing supply and therefor raising costs. I have been directly involved in the decision making process that has come to that conclusion in at least three occassions.
Although the solution is simple, the challenge remains how do you encourage the housebuilders to churn out the houses in period where it makes sense for them to build up land banks and go slow on production.
Sam Slam, Glasgow, Scotland
What? Prices to fall by 4% in the next two years? WOW! So the last four months' rise will be negated.
Actually I am fed up with all these stupid forecasts. They are put out by people who, in the end, take no responsibility for what they utter. In the light of all past experience, nobody has a damn clue about what the prices will do.
Dick Parsons, Stevenage,
These predictions are laughable really. During the period 2000-2007, the pundits have all been wrong about house prices. Among the worst have been the lenders who consistently underestimated how high and fast prices would rise. As we move into the inevitable downturn (because all markets turn, eventually) they will also underestimate the falls. Typically the falls take as long, or longer than the rise, so we can expect falls for 5-7 years, but with the worst of it over the next 2-3. If the experts tell us it can fall 4-5%, believe me it could easily fall several times more than that! Think 30%, as this is the amount of the rise which can be attributed to speculation in residential property. Easy come, easy go.
Robert Twizell, Reading,
And what has happend to the Governments promise to build 270,000 new homes each year to meet the targets set for 2020? Clearly the number of completed homes is going to drop to below the current levels of of around 165,000 each year.
Christopher Glendinning Miller, Bedford, England
2% here 3% there - you wish! The rise in value of bricks and mortar over the past 5 years couldn't have been predicted in a lunatic asylum! Although it does seem the nation (lady muck)has lapped up it's new found wealth - mind you, apart from the credit card, it's the only feeling of wealth it's going to get because certainly salaries have in real terms being static over the past ten years. As the Germans say: "enjoy the war the peace will be terrible".
Tim Walton, Leeds, England