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The latest mortgage figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), revealed that gross mortgage lending was virtually static at £34billion in August, compared with £34.1billion in July. And it was only £1billion higher than August last year. This is unsurprising given the growing evidence that the housing market is finally slowing as a result of the five interest rate rises that were seen between August 2006 and July this year. However, what is surprising is the fact that there was a marked shift in the type of borrowing over the last 12 months.
Lending for house purchases and mortgages has fallen over the past 12 months both in the numbers of loans advanced, and the value. Buy-to-let lending on the other hand is still rising.
The CML’s figures revealed that the value of ‘other’ lending, which is predominantly buy-to-let, increased from £5.7billion in August 2006, to £7.8 billion in August this year – a rise of 37%. Over the same period, lending for house purchases fell 2.5% from £16.1billion to £15.7billion. The number of people taking out mortgages for purchases fell from 111,000 to 99,000. This trend is likely to continue as the housing market slowdown takes hold.
House prices fell by 0.6% in September according to Halifax, although they are still 10.7% higher than a year ago. The rate of growth is expected to slow to around 7% by the end of the year and many economists think prices will rise by around 3% or 4% next year. Capital Economics, a consultancy believes prices could drop next year.
The slowdown in the residential markets is one of the reasons behind the continued strength in buy-to-let. Thousands of people cannot afford to buy and many are reluctant to take the plunge now, in case prices fall. Demand for rental property is therefore strong which helps explain why buy-to-let lending is still on the up.
However, the CML’s figures take are for loans completed in August - before the credit crunch and crisis at Northern Rock took effect. In recent weeks, a number of buy-to-let lenders have tightened their criteria. Rates on most deals have gone up while lenders such as Gmac, have reduced the amount they will lend. Gmac will now lend a maximum of 75% of the property’s value, down from 90%. Others have increased the amount of rental cover they require – Advantage for example, which used to only require the rental income to cover the mortgage, will now only lend if the rent is 110% of the monthly mortgage payments. These changes will make it harder for borrowers to advance a mortgage, so over the coming months buy-to-let lending is likely to slow.
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I assume the CMLs figures just represent new loans completed during the period, and don't deduct the value of loans settled in the same period? If that is the case, how much of the £ 7.8 billion is remortgages by but to let investors? More lending doesn't necessarily mean more buy to let properties being purchased. I certainly wouldn't interpret these figures as meaning that there is an unseen army of "savvy" but to let experts out there busily securing their future fortunes! It is amazing how the property market throws off so many media articles looking to bolster it, with varying levels of subtlety! I do wonder how much longer the power of suggestion can support our property market against all the facts. The number of properties marketed as "no chain" in my area suggests to me that landlords are selling at least as much as they are buying. The Capital Gains Tax changes announced this week may tempt more buy to letters to sell next year.
A Patrick, Bath,
ed - why would falling house prices bring down your house of cards? short-term falling house prices only cause a loss to sellers. those who are buying to let do not plan to sell in the shrot-term. who knows? perhaps they do not rely solely on rentals to cover their mortgages. it is not misguided to think that property is a one-way bet. long-term, it undoubtedly is. the people who will have problems are not those who have misjudged the movement in house prices, but rather those who have not allowed for any relative loss of income, whether rental or personal.
jem, london, uk
Buy to letters going into the market now are amateur greedy speculating fools. They are buying because of their misguided belief that property is a one way bet. Professional landlords regard yield as an indicator for value and in this market there is no value. I also suspect that the house price data is massaged by compilers (who are best served by high inflation ) to put over a more positive spin on the situation. If a flat goes on the market at 125,000 and has no buyers, the vendor may drop the price to 100,000. If the flat then sells for 102,000 is that chalked up as a 2% rise or an 18% fall from asking price?
Buy to lets also tend to release equity from properties to put down deposits for more properties. Each transaction is increasing the leverage of the initial capital. It will only take a small readjustment in prices and their loses become magnified hugely. It is a financial house of cards.
Ed, London,
The one thing which confuses me is, where are all of these idiots who are still buying to let coming from? Don't they read the papers or listen to the news? All indicators are that the market is on its way down yet they are still buying and presumably some idiotic banks are still lending to them. Can't help but think that fools and their (borrowed) money are easily parted.
Clive, Sussex, UK
Buy to let investors will bring the market down when they start bailing out. Interest rates on all mortgages are set to go up because of the banking crisis. This will stifle demand. Once the govenment has some success in releasing more land to build houses where people want to live (not flats in city centres) there will be a rush for the exit. Once property prices start the downward slope it could develop into a slide. Who knows where it will stop. It could have a significant effect on economic growth as people stop buying and start saving for that future bargain house. Everything is done to extremes these days, from the oscilations to the stock market and exchange rates to the amount of rainwater falling in some areas of Britain, now calculated in inches sometimes ! The end of the world is ..............
Diddly do, Liverpool,
Well Said, Andy
The property crash is imminent, and I am looking forward to the smiles being wiped off the faces of all smug by to letters.
Lawrence, BRISTOL,
"Capital Economics, a consultancy believes prices could drop next year."
Erm. This is what annoys the hell out of me with you journalists. If Halifax said that house prices dropped last month, what do you think that means exactly? IT MEANS HOUSE PRICES REDUCED IN VALUE!
Forget annual figures. If you want a an accurate picture of whats going on in the market look monthly or probably quarterly!
Stop kidding yourself about house prices. They are falling. Fact.
Andy, Salisbury, Wiltshire