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House prices are set to fall by 6 per cent over the next two years, according to a report from Capital Economics, a leading consultancy.
Britain will follow the United States, Ireland, Spain and France by suffering from the end of the global housing boom, it said. Its report forecasts a gloomier scenario than was encountered during the slowdown of 2004 and 2005, when property inflation slowed from 20 per cent to 2 per cent.
Ed Stansfield, who wrote the report, said that average house prices were likely to fall 3 per cent in 2008 and 2009. Last week Halifax announced the first fall in house prices this year.
Mr Stansfield said that affordability had worsened over the past two years, and that problems in the credit market would make it more difficult for people to remortgage.
The report found that monthly repayments on a new mortgage for a typical homeowner were 16 per cent higher than two years ago. The City’s liquidity crisis meant that mortgages would become more expensive, particularly for people with less equity. “Lenders are increasingly differentiating between lower and higher-risk borrowers in terms of the mortgage rates on offer,” it said.
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KennyG, Brighton. I agree, I was a bit lax with my language - although I've just read a report which suggests a 50% downturn is on the cards http://www.ukprwire.com/Detailed/Real_Estate/Fears_that_prices_could_fall_by_50_per_cent_10687.shtml
Let's stick with a 20% fall initially (not too far fetched looking at the US), that wipes out all of my hypothetical investor's profit plus a bit more if sale fees are taken into account. That would depress me enough, never mind the fact that every 1% fall above the 20% represents 50k of negative equity. If prices can rise 20% per year they can certainly fall by that amount. As economic fundamentals underpinning house prices were left far behind a significant time ago, all bets are off regarding just how far and how fast the market may fall. I think back to a few years ago when the world seemed flush with dot com millionaires. A few weeks later - dot com paupers.
Clive, Sussex, UK
Indeed, George, 6 per cent is a conservative estimate of the fall. And again, yes, it will of course be London that props up the national figure. Expect price drops of at least 10 to 15 per cent elsewhere. Potential First-time-buyers are all becoming aware that to buy a property now, at the top of the market, would be ludicrous. Come spring, there'll be bargain after bargain as the homeowners who weren't quick enough desperately try to sell up and reap some of their property 'profit'.....
Mr Willbee, Middlesbrough, UK
Sorry, Clive, I think your calculator batteries must be running low.
You say: "Don't think I'd be quite as complacent if I was, say sitting on 5m of BTL property and 4m of mortgage debt. The market doesn't have to fall too far for a 1m profit to turn into a similar sized loss."
My calculator says the market would have to fall 40% to turn that 1m profit into a similar sized loss - and I certainly wouldn't describe that as 'not falling too far'!
KennyG, Brighton,
Just read an email from primelocation - a long list of properties, many of which I recognise from earlier emails and all showing an asking price reduction of 5% or more. That's in a prosperous part of the SE commuter belt and the fall represents a couple of months. This time Ed Stansfield my be wrong again but in the opposite direction - 6% down might be the tip of the iceberg. Happily, I don't care - one property, no mortgage, no intention of moving. Don't think I'd be quite as complacent if I was, say sitting on 5m of BTL property and 4m of mortgage debt. The market doesn't have to fall too far for a 1m profit to turn into a similar sized loss. Isn't the golden rule for the professional gambler to know when to leave the table, to quit whilst ahead? And the unsuccessful gambler, s/he thinks that the run of luck will last forever, watches winnings turn into losses and leaves with nothing - or worse!
Clive, Sussex, UK
Would this be the same Capital Economics that encouraged us to 'get ready' for a 20% fall in house prices in 2005 and a 6% fall in 2006? There is a saying that runs along the lines of "the economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecastersâ. The difference? People remember what Michael Fish said 20 years ago but perhaps need reminding of what economists - particularly at Capital Ecomomics were confidently predicting only a few years ago.
Simon, London, UK
I'm sorry... is that the same Ed Stansfield of Capital Economics who, in February 2005, predicted that UK house prices would fall more than 20% in the following two years?
If so, let's remind ourselves of what actually happened... er, house prices ROSE more than 20% over those two years.
Pardon me if I don't fly off into a panic over their latest doom laden prediction!
I don't know what will happen to house prices over the next two years but I can guarantee you one thing - Capital Economics will, once again, have got it wrong.
It makes you wonder why they bother making these predictions â and why newspapers bother printing them. I could do better rolling a pair of dice!
KennyG, Brighton,
Only 6 per cent - no chance! Once the slide in prices becomes entrenched (arguably we're there already) there'll be no stopping it. Maybe some top end properties in London will continue to make the stats look a bit better, but 'ordinary' properties around the country will fall by sums well into double figures - around 50% to return to historical averages. The party is well and truly over!
George, East Sussex, UK