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HOMEOWNERS were warned last week that the credit crunch in the financial markets could usher in a period of stagnation for the property market, after years of robust growth.
Housing-market analysts have been predicting a slowdown for some time, but the financial crisis is likely to bring it forward as higher mortgage rates force homebuyers to tighten their belts.
House prices have fallen by 2.6% over the past month, according to property website Rightmove – the largest monthly fall since January 2002.
Rightmove looked at asking prices, which are typically three months ahead of the completion prices monitored by Halifax and Nationwide, so it is seen as a good indicator of future price trends – although the figures this month have been distorted by the introduction of home information packs (Hips) for bigger homes, which has kept some properties off the market.
Nevertheless, the financial crisis is undeniably hitting home. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said last week that confidence is at its lowest level since June 2005. Oliver Gil-martin, senior economist at Rics, said: “Rightmove’s figures may even underestimate the negative sentiment which has hit the housing market in recent days. We do not expect a crash but a sharp slowdown is likely. The biggest threat to the housing market comes from the current credit turmoil impacting the wider economy in the coming months.”
The annual rate of house-price growth has been running at double-digit levels for much of the year – prices rose 11.4% in the 12 months to August, according to Halifax. However, economists expected the growth rate to reduce to single digits in the second half of the year.
Homeowners have had to cope with five interest-rate rises between August 2006 and July this year. Bank rate has gone up from 4.5% to 5.75% adding £156 a month – £1,875 a year – to the monthly payments of someone with a £150,000 interest-only loan.
About 800,000 borrowers will come to the end of fixed-rate mortgages in between now and the end of the year. They have so far been protected from the rising interest rates, but they face a payment shock. The leap in payments could be even bigger than many are expecting because variable-rate deals look set to get more expensive as a result of the credit crunch.
Buy-to-let investors are likely to be the hardest hit because many of them have loans linked to Libor, the wholesale rate at which banks lend to each other, rather than Bank rate. It hit 6.9% last week – 1.25 points more than the 5.75% Bank rate.
Most lenders reset Libor mortgage rates every three months. Skipton building society, which is a large lender in the commercial market, recently increased its Libor rate from 5.81% to 6.63% – this will add £103 to the monthly payments of someone with a £150,000 inter-est-only mortgage.
Jonathan Moore at Mortgages for Business, a broker, said: “I think a lot of borrowers will be taken by surprise when their mortgage rate goes up as a result of the current funding crisis. They will have already seen their payments rise on the back of Bank rate increases, and some will undoubtedly be struggling.”
Tim Warrington at Landlord, a property website, said 14,000 buy-to-let investors registered with the company are currently trying to sell. Not all of them are piling out of the market because of financial difficulties; some are selling because prices have risen so much in recent years and they want to realise some profits. However, it is not good news for the housing market.
Warrington said: “Some landlords have decided that the market conditions in the UK are looking bleak so they are bailing out now while they can. If too many do this, it could send the property market into freefall. We urge buy-to-let investors to hold their nerve through these tricky times and look on it as a long-term investment.”
There is some evidence that homeowners as well as investors are starting to feel the strain, with an increasing number of people seeking to sell their property because they cannot afford spi-ralling costs.
National Homebuyers, a company that buys properties from those needing a quick sale, has seen a huge increase in inquiries over the past few months. The number of people coming to it for a quick sale leapt 95% in July, and a further 20% in August.
David Harber, at the company, said: “The number of people contacting us because they are either in or are predicting financial difficulties has more than doubled since the beginning of the year.
“Many property owners are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the state of the property market and they want a fast way out.”
Nevertheless, economists are sticking with their forecasts that growth will slow, not crash. Fionnuala Earley, chief economist at Nationwide building society, said: “There is nothing in the news that is positive for the housing market at the moment, and we are expecting it to slow down considerably. That said, we still have a supply shortage, which should underpin prices over the longer term.”
Earley expects the rate of growth to slow to 6% by the end of the year.
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Who are all these people continually harping on about a property crash, are they people who havn't done well in the property market and are of a jealous nature, I suspect yes.?
If it is first time buyers, I do have sympathy for you, it is not easy. Although, when I bought my first flat in 85, the interest rates went up 3% in one day to 15%, which was a sruggle. I was broke each month, but luckily got a better job overseas which helped wity the repayments.
Hopefully things will just go quite for a few years and let everyone atempt o catch up. Wishing proprty crashes is a short sighted view and doesn't help the country.
I also believe that programmes like Home under the Hammer and Location Location (Phil?) don't help matters, piling peer pressure on the people to move and make money.
While in London the other week, I saw an advert about signs you can put in your garden ' I do Not want to Move, Its my home'!! I liked that, as people dare not do things to their house!
Paul, Northallerton, N Yorks
Be a shame if the City and property y market both go pear shaped, it's all the busimess we have in the UK. No, just a minute, there's some farming as well.....
I look forward to voting Labour to see Brown worm his way through the crash.
Mark, oldham, UK
David, Bourne End, UK. This is a common feature of the dying days of a speculative bubble - sometimes referred to as a 'muppet rally'. I don't know why it happens, but the same did happen at the very last stages of the dot.com bubble just before it burst and it is well documented more generally with other bubbles - it's almost as if a few more lemmings just have to throw themselves off the cliff to catch up with the others. Anyway, this is a good sign - it means that the end (the crash) is finally here.
Graham, Oxford, UK
you want to see cheshire and the wirral, signs everywhere and prices are dropping too, however they still look overvalued...
some parts I have seen 80% of the culde sac for sale, same on some roads, signs lined up...
If this is not a sign what is?
mark, chester, cheshire
come down, sit and fastened your sitbells because the crush of the house market is just on its way.
d, london,
Prices falling? Not really in the Marlow and surrounding areas! Having viewed the local estate agents windows yesterday afternoon, my reckoning is a 20% increase since last year on desirable houses.
David, Wellend-On-Thames
David, Bourne End, UK
The Times seems to be obsessed with spreading the doom n gloom panic. It's self fulfilling unfortunately and will have an effect on buyers confidence in the market. Why do journalists always feel the need to paint the picture as either black or white and not the reality. The market has slowed it's rate of increase but thats hardly call for 'crash imminent' panic talk.
Dominic, London,
Prices will not stagnate. To say there will be "a " crash is simplistic" : there are too many divergent influences affecting the market. Excluding extrordianary effects viz the London sector (including propeties outside London but nonetless part of its market) the "ordinary" homeowner is or will be facing increasing difficlulty. Recent RICS reports show significant increase in reposssessions (36%) from a relatiecely low base but also concealing the greater rising tide. Look at the number of "nearly" repossessions i.e. those incidents that were retrieved after the initiation of proceedings. As the ability to remortgage adverse credit diminishes those homeowners will be incresingly tipped over the edge. These numbers are potentially massive. An increasing inablity to roll-over unsecured debt on low rate terms will exacerbate the secured debt problem. And London? Slashed bonuses, City redundancies; we've seen it before. Some factors will support the top but flight capital goes both ways.
David, Sevenoaks, UK
Reading all the negative comments of the doom sayers, I believe that following the imminent and drastic crash in property prices, there will be a total collapse of the whole of the UK Economy.
I urge everyone to panic and to keep on panicing until their aims are realised.
After all, we are all suffering from the devastating consequences of past crisies/panics, such as, AIDS/HIV, Salmonella in eggs, Listeria, CJD, Sars, Bird Flu, Mobile phones, Northern Rock and soon to come Global Warming.
I am completely baffled as to why there is still 60mio people living in this country, most in relative comfort, with many more thousands arriving daily, many of whom have the cash to buy property outright.
I think I am missing something because obviously I am not as clever as the doom sayers
Running on Empty, Gerrards Cross, Leafy Bucks
If you had read the actual report from Rightmove you would see that the 2.6% asking price reduction is an anomaly caused by the massive (41%) reduction in speculative 4+ bed homes coming on the market - because of HIPs.
In case the correlation is not clear, 4+bed homes are typically of higher price than smaller homes - hence the average asking price reduction.
Emma, Maidenhead, Berks
Frank, New York . £103 as a percentage of after tax income of 50k is more like 4%. Also, many borrowers will have borrowed 4 or more times income, making the percentage increase against take-home pay even higher. I agree that in more sensible times these percentages wouldn't lead to catastrophe. However, with over a trillion pounds of personal debt in the UK many people are already spending up to or beyond their net income every month to service total loan repayments. For these, an extra £103 per month going out may easily be the final straw that forces a sale of their property. This will lead to a major downturn in the UK housing market.
Clive, Chichester, UK
In the above article on the credit crunch and housing prices, you use the example of a £150,000 interest only Libor mortgage set to experience an increase of £103 in monthly payments.
Admittedly, this will shock some borrowers, but unless the borrower was pretending to have an income. The borrower of a £150,000 mortgage loan will probably have an annual income of £50,000. Putting these numbers together one concludes, the borrower will witness an increase of 2.4% of their income being used for mortgage payments. Unless the borrower is in a collapsing job position, they will be seeing a salary raise in excess of 2.4% thus creating a wash in expenses.
A problem yes, a catastrophe I donât think so.
Frank, New York , NY/USA
First-time buyer? Here's my advice: Don't even think of buying right now! Hold your nerve for another few months while house prices plummet, then be ready to snap up the pieces!
Mr Willbee, Middlesbrough, UK
"Property prices are set to stagnate"
Stagnate? You mean like Wile Coyote hanging up there in mid air. Come on now, the chances of prices stagnating are as good as our having an endless summer! The long awaited crash has started and it's going to be one big bang. Better batten down the hatches for the fallout.
anthony, london, england
"That said, we still have a supply shortage, which should underpin prices over the longer term.â
That shortage will be balanced out by slowing demand, as no one wants to spend the amounts they now need to spend, when people are finally starting to talk of a slump. The buy-to-let crew, as well as the savvy ones sitting on a pile of equity, will also sell up and rent back a similar property cheaper, and add supply to the market.
I don't know about you, but in some of the places I've driven through, it looks as if the whole village is 'For Sale'.
Looking at the picture - inflation (oil and now soft commods), interest rates, the credit markets, and finally the most important, public sentiment - its good news for the housing market: affordable homes for those that have strived hard all their lives.
Luke, Tunbridge Wells, Kent
I can't believe that the rubbish about stagnation in the property market is still being printed. How much more evidence do the commentators need that a crash is alreay underway? Prices are already falling significantly (2.6% last month according to Rightmove) and that was before the full impact of the current credit crunch. I appreciate that those in the property business are struggling to protect their own livelihoods, but have a bit of self-respect, please. Spouting a property industry party line that all is still okay when the edifice underpinning the current property bubble is crumbling just makes me, as a reader, think that you see me a stupid. Not a good way to gain sympathy for your point of view.
George, Brighton, UK