Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
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The property market has enjoyed an unexpectedly robust summer, figures showed yesterday, suggesting that the cost of borrowing might have to rise further before the full effect of a forecast housing slowdown takes effect.
Figures on mortgage approvals from the Bank of England showed that there were 115,000 new loans taken out in July, unchanged from the previous month despite the Bank raising rates that month to their highest level in six years.
Approvals figures are often seen as an early indicator of the direction of the housing market. Analysts said that mortgage demand had been slow to react to the five increases in rates over the past year.
In another unexpectedly strong figure, Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 0.6 per cent in August, up from 0.1 per cent in July.
That meant that the three-month rolling average rate was unchanged. However, the annual rate softened to 9.6 per cent from 9.9 per cent the month before.
Nationwide said that it expected the market to lose steam later this year and for house price growth to end the year in the middle of its forecast range of 5 to 8 per cent.
The building society said that the slowdown would be caused by weaker affordability, higher interest rates and lower expectations of house price growth.
Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “While it has taken some time for these factors to bite, there are now clearer signs of slower demand in the market reflected in the collapse in new buyer enquiries.
“In addition, the stock-to-sales ratio, which leads house price inflation by five to seven months, predicts a continued slowing in the annual rate of house price inflation.”
Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: “The fact that mortgage demand remains strong for now no doubt explains why house price inflation has so far softened only slightly.”
The research group said that prices had lost momentum since the start of the year and would continue to soften gradually throughout the year.
In July, mortgage-holders who were following the City consensus view would have expected the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates to 6 per cent, pushing up the cost of their loans even further.
Although an immediate increase is now thought to be unlikely, borrowing costs could rise anyway as a result of the worldwide liquidity drought that has sharply pushed up the cost of interbank lending.
Oliver Gilmartin, senior economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said: “The stronger mortgage lending data will add weight to those on the MPC who believe that another interest rates rise may be necessary before year end.
“However, volatility in credit and financial markets will remain the key determinant for the rate-setting committee going into the winter period.”
Other figures from the Bank showed a strengthening in unsecured lending. Consumers borrowed £1.1 billion in bank loans, overdrafts and on credit cards in July, the highest figure since last November.
Borrowing on credit cards, in particular, rose at a much faster pace than the recent average.
Ross Walker, of RBS, said: “UK households’ appetite for borrowing remains remarkably resilient.
“The full effects of the monetary policy tightening over the past year have yet to be felt, and any additional increases in funding costs resulting from the credit market fallout have yet to register.”
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More new loans but with a lower total value! And a UK sub prime crises yet to surface! They've done well to keep it under wraps this long.... You do the math....
ryan, zuich, aargau
This week, the Bank of England published its latest monthly figures on lending to individuals. If you take its numbers and add them up on an annual basis you will see that lending secured on dwellings over the period August 2006 to July 2007 totalled £113.47bn, a figure which has hardly changed since February 2007. That said, the corresponding total at July 2006 was £103.79bn which infers a percentage rise of just over 9 per cent.
In terms of consumer credit, the annual total rose very slightly in the year to July 2007, to £11.07bn, it had reached a low of £10.91bn in the year to May 2007, but was £15.4bn in the year to July 2006. This has fallen by 28 per cent in the past year.
Taken together, these numbers suggest that people have already started to curtail their borrowing which might even be now on the decline.
If this trend continues over the next few months, as seems likely, it is only a matter of time before we see an overall fall in house prices and interest rates.
Frank, Oakham, Rutland
With a tightening of income on a considerable level, combined with higher rates the only way the general public can continue to borrow ever higher is through the sub and near sub prime routes. These routes are driven by the big banks, no different to the US as of previous and current events. So until someone really gets seriously kicked in the shins in the UK the lenders will continue to over lend and fuel the market which of course will lead to higher levels of misery in the future. At least in the US news they blame fair and square the banks primarily and only partly the consumer. While in the UK its is all the fault of the consumer. The media generally in the UK needs a kick up the arse with a reality check of accountability.
Paul, London, North America