Gabriel Rozenberg
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Until very recently, Britain’s attitude to the sub-prime meltdown in the US was: “It couldn’t happen here”. But worries are growing that echoes of the American experience could ripple across the Atlantic.
As two mortgage lenders, Unity Homeloans and Infinity Mortgages, announced yesterday that they were closing their sub-prime mortgage product range to all new business with immediate effect, Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, sounded the alarm over Britain’s culture of debt. “The stresses and strains now being seen in the USA and in Germany may well be felt in Britain before too long,” he said.
The cracks are starting to show. Last week the Council of Mortgage Lenders sharply revised up its estimate of home repossessions. The numbers are pretty low compared with the US, and are dwarfed by the experience of the early 1990s. What really got analysts nervous was the number of repossessions as a proportion of mortgage arrears. By the look of the CML’s data, nearly 40 per cent of mortgages in arrears now lead to repossessions, up from 12 per cent just three years ago. The figure is far higher than anything seen in the 1980s or 90s and suggests that sub-prime lending is a larger phenomenon than previously thought.
David Owen, of Dresdner Kleinwort, said: “Lenders in this area are not giving households who run into financial difficulties the luxury of several months grace. Think what could happen if house prices fell.”
However, house prices show little sign of falling. Unlike in the US, a squeeze on the supply of homes has underpinned prices. The massive levels of defaults on loans in the US are therefore less likely to come to Britain. In addition, the CML says that the wilder inventiveness of the US sub-prime mortgage originators never spread to the UK in the first place.
One man who remains sure that the problem is manageable is Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England. This week he repeated that repossessions remained at a low level. The increase, he said, “doesn’t in and of itself at this stage constitute a major macroeconomic threat.”
But the absence, for now, of a large sub-prime problem in Britain does not mean that its stock market is immune to the problem. In fact, European banks such as HSBC and BNP have proved themselves markedly exposed to worthless mortgage-backed bonds and collateralised debt obligations.
Kevin Duffy, the managing director of Robert Sterling, the mortgage adviser, said: “We are seeing the contagion coming over from the Atlantic. The organisations lending that money in the US also have a stake-hold in the UK market so it is clearly going to have an impact. The question is also whether we are going to make it through the next few months without one of the big players withdrawing. That’s the $64 million question.”
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bring back the good old days where if your didnt have have money you didnt spend the money.mortgages in the UK are as easy to get as in the US, and in the enxt 1-2 years the US problem will have a ripple effect across the pond. I have a UK friend who got 250K mortgage, and to prove his income he made his own pay slip on his home PC, the bank never rang his "bosses" phone number which was just his mate waiting for the call. Both economies are "false" economies as everything is bought on credit, from the house and car, to the holiday and fridge.the whole system has been too easy to get money.
luke, perth, australia
There used to be a time when banks, building societies and money lenders wouldn't lend large amounts of money to people who were, putting it simply, poor. When greed became a prime motive with the money chancers, they gave to all, like a charity, and don't bother to read the two inches of small print in grey ink at the bottom of the document, it might put you off. It was bound to happen, and now its happening.
Phil de Buquet, Newport, England
I'm pleased to see that the Council of Mortgage Lenders has revised its forecast of repossessions, thereby admitting its failure to lend responsibly in the past. Which of the Mortgage Lenders will be the first to fail, do you think? If youve got money invested in anything calling itself a Building Society, get it out, before the banks that own them dump them.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
"In addition, the CML says that the wilder inventiveness of the US sub-prime mortgage originators never spread to the UK in the first place."
When you are part of the system this garbage always come from the lips of those in the industry. Of course it spread. In fact the UK created many of the tricks. Why do you think the city is full of very clever, very highly paid people? Sub-prime mortgages were in the system nearly a decade ago, albeit propelled by the gutter lenders but it was and is there. And they got the money from the big boys back door. It is not until you hit a buffer that the truth comes out. The UK is not there 'YET'. Until now the UK control freaks have buried their heads in the sand. Why can't responsible people face reality?
Paul, London, Canada
" Cracks" will soon turn to "Canyons" on both sides of the Atlantic. You say "worries are growing that echoes of the American experience could ripple across the Atlantic."
The mortgage markets are constructed on the same principle in UK, as in the US , and all the esay money has been made avilable by " pyramid selling" to gullible public by brokers who are on commission on the basis of the originators selling on these to other unsuspecting so called sophisticated investors as CDO's, and make their money before the house caves in . So don't be too smug and think that UK will escape the contagion. When the fixed rates start expiring and interest rates go up starting next month onwards hear the squeals.
The old adage of " buyer beware" applies - only in this case it will be individuals suffering and all the big boys will be bailed out by the BOE.
vik , Wien, Austria
The core of the problem is the money system itself. This has evolved over a long period of time and has been determined by the Money Changers. It is run by them for their benefit.
The government simply sits there and whistles in the dark and the people are overwhelmingly sitting in the dark with no idea of how the debt-based system actually works.
Alan Heaton, Frankfurt, Germany
It'll never happen here. There's just that special quality to the Great British bedsit that means it really is worth at least 300k. And always will be.
Don't panic.
MD, London,
i think it would be better if the font was turquoise and there were irrelevent pictures.
Scghosbe, Swindon, UK
I don't believe there is a housing shortage in the UK in itself - although there is probably a shortage of properties for sale. That would be due to the Government's policies over the last ten years, specifically:
⢠John Prescot's schlerotic planning system
⢠Gordon Brown's stamp duty hikes
⢠Tony Blair's HIPs
⢠Mass immigration
MarkS, Leeds,
Don't kid yourself that there aren't "Sub-prime" problems here in the UK. Mortgage Fraud is and has been endemic in the UK. Untold numbers of borrowers have been persuaded to lie about their incomes in their mortgagae applications. The result of this vast pyramid selling scam - that is that the co-called "housing market has become - has been huge inflation of prices as people pile in on the pyramid scheme - i.e. the "housing market". There are well documented investigatins which have revealed large-scale mortgage fraud; note especially rhe BBC Money Programme on "Mortgage Fraud". [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm]
The jury is definitely out. Chickens may come home to roost yet. The spurious and irresponsible lending multiples of recent years are poison in the mud. Watch out!!
Paul, Salisbury, UK
This whole affair brings into serious question the wisedom of the decision to remove housing costs from the inflation target ( the move from the rpi measure which included some but not all housing costs to the cpi measure which excluded all housing costs).
Since the Bank Of England uses this measure to set interest rates this has been a contributary factor to the enormous growth of debt in the economy.
A better approach would have been to use an inflation target which includes all costs including housing costs to more accurately reflect the cost of living.
One also has to ask the question where is the real money coming from to pay for the annual double digit increase in house values .
Concerned, NI, UK
Whats new ? Capitalism rotten like the people that run it.
The whole idea of futures is just about one thing. Lets get
rich quick; if we pervert things alitlle the IMF will lets us off.
Shame the rest of us can't play by these rules.
I'm not qualified to say that our economy is 5 years behind
the states, so maybe meltdown is closer afterall....................
who knows ?
M walker, Nr Bromsgrove, worcs
I largely blame the unnecessary low interest rates since 9/11. May have done wonders in the short term but for the longer term - an utter disaster which will take years to rectify. It's payback time. The world's Central Bankers have failed to learn from mistakes of the past. Simple as that...
CWW, Ipswich, Suffolk
Anything that could help plunge house values in the Uk would obviously be a short term catastrophy but in the long term an adjustment of house values to a reasonable level is well overdue. ... and must be faced up to
Britons feel comfortable about general debt because they feel secue and wealthy from the value of their property... But its like keeping liquid gold in a paper bag ....
andy, Lyon, France
In a credit crunch the first to feel the pinch are the most indebted societies with the lowest rate of personal savings. As credit is withdrawn from the market liquidity dries up and inflated asset prices can no longer be supported. Although subprime is much lower in the UK than the US it has been on the same credit binge from which it will suffer the same hangover.
Tom, Jimena, Spain
Maybe the should call "Picture" those "very helpful" people of the telly, maybe they can help to sort all these problems! - Not
U Ali, Bradford, UK
So the UK market suffers from lack of supply and never experienced the wilder inventiveness of the US market and will therefore not see house price falls?? Well, keep on talking up the market and that might just be true for a little while longer - but not forever.
If there's a shortage of housing supply in the UK, how come rents have been more or less static for the duration of the housing boom? In my city, rents have gone up by about 20% maximum over the past 10 years, compared to almost 200% rises in house prices. Also, if the market in the UK wasn't as wildly inventive as the US, how come almost everyone I know can name at least one person in their circle who has taken on a mortgage they can't afford either as an interest-only deal or one that's about 5 x their income?
Dream on: the US market trend is on its way over the UK - it's just a matter of time.
MB, Edinburgh,
Bad management and poor quality lending lead to disaster. Incredible that the new era of Bank mangement has no knowledge of the past rules that apply to banking. The get rich culture now so apparent in all big banks, is going to cause havoc. Royal Bank of Scotland for example has followed a shareholder first policy for 5 years. The depositer has been treated like dirt and this is going bring its just rewards.
HKSB has been fooled into Mortgage lending in the US. No British bank has ever made money from buying a US bank as they are all sold at full value prior to the real balance sheet being revealed.
John, Brenford, Essex