Tom Bawden in New York
Win luxury hampers plus Waitrose vouchers & guidebooks
Mortgage banks are expected to foreclose on 1.8 million American home loans this year as already-stretched “sub-prime” borrowers contend with rising interest rates, according to new research.
The predicted foreclosures represent a 44 per cent jump on last year and are expected to leave about 720,000 mortgage holders without a house, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
A foreclosure is a legal process typically set in motion when a borrower falls 90 days behind on mortgage repayments. About 40 per cent end in a forced sale or repossession of the house, while the bank and borrower reach an alternative repayment schedule in the remaining cases.
The number of foreclosures jumped by 87 per cent to 164,644 in June, compared with the year-earlier period, according to new figures released by RealtyTrac, the American mortgage research firm.
This brings the total number of foreclosures to 925,987 for the first half of the year. It compares with 1.25 million for the whole of 2006 and is more than the 847,000 recorded in 2005, according to RealtyTrac.
A significant jump in the number of foreclosures is bad for the housing market because it leads to fire-sales and damages confidence, which then reduces prices. Declining house prices discourage consumer spending and make lenders generally nervous about approving loans, which is bad for the economy as a whole. As the world’s economy becomes increasingly integrated, an increase in the cost of borrowing and a decline in company profits are more likely to cross the Atlantic and have an impact around the globe.
RealtyTrac estimates that 58 per cent of the foreclosures so far this year relate to so-called sub-prime mortgages – home loans made to borrowers with poor credit ratings that carry a higher interest rate.
The value of sub-prime mortgages soared in recent years as the seemingly endless surge in house prices encouraged brokers to arrange home loans for increasingly unsuitable borrowers, often with no proof of income.
Sub-prime borrowers will be among the hardest hit when as much as $1 billion (£492 million) worth of adjustable-rate mortgages are reset to a higher interest rate between now and the end of the year, RealtyTrac said.
In a measure of just how dangerous the market perceives sub-prime mortgages to be, Canada Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) was forced to strenuously deny press reports yesterday that it had $2.6 billion of exposure to such high-risk loans. The bank refused to disclose its exposure, which a spokesman described as “well below” the $2.6 billion estimate.
Meanwhile, Randall Kroszner, Governor of the Federal Reserve, said America’s central bank was looking at ways to help homebuyers with poor credit ratings as lenders become increasingly wary of making sub-prime loans.
Mr Kroszner said: “We are looking very seriously at whether we can write rules that will be helpful to protect consumers in this [sub-prime mortgage] market while maintaining responsible credit from responsible lenders that can be handled responsibly by people in this market.”
Read the training tips and advice that helped our London Triathletes
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers

Our Credit Clinic has free help and advice
2007
£47,995
2008
£42,945
06/2006
£40,850
Great car insurance deals online
£33,000
Macmillan Cancer Support
Central/South West
£50k
NHS
Nationwide
£
£30k OTE
Meltwater News
Nationwide
circa £70k
Central Office of Information
London
5% below developer pre-launch price!
Luxury Appts, beautiful gardens w/ Thames views
Great Homes Available on a shared Ownership Basis
Great Investment, River Views
Visit the ‘entertainment capital of the world’
at great sale prices!
Christmas Cruises
From only £995pp
APTs East Coast now from only
£2425pp.
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Globrix Property Search - find property for sale and rent in the UK. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Greed Kills!!!
So, nobody saw this coming???
Let it crash, I have been renting long enough.
Didn't even try for a loan, as the prices were too high (Based on 6% @ 30 years).
A $350K House was not in MY reach.
Bring back the $100K prices, then I can go back to working 40 hours, save and ENJOY Life.
Yeah, the Cost of Living pay raises (2 - 3% pr. yr.) just wont eventually support the (8 - 15% pr. yr.) Housing Increases...
Simple Math Kiddies...
GREED KILLS...
The Banks still win, because of the MAXED out Mortgage Slaves that WILL Survive will still outweigh the Failed ones.
The ones who loose are the borderline Borrowers.
They will then bash your credit, so in the future, they will charge you PREMIUM Interest on any other loans (18% Auto Loans), They WIN AGAIN!!!!!
Lead Zeppelin, Gloucester, MA
Greed, Lust, Gluttony: Ahh, the seven deadly sins at their best.
And those that done the sins will bear the pain: From those who lusted after the real estate; to those who financied the deals; to those who bought the deals.
Boy, oh boy, when this derivatives market comes undone not only will the US financial markets but the global financial markets will be gone like a house of cards in a breeze.
The real estate cerdit / debt bubble is nothing more than the reflection of the financial credit / debit our country is in.
God help you if your on the wrong side of this financial ' house of cards ' markets when the breeze blows.
henry schweinbold, jacksonville, FL
The banks must be loving every minute of it. Imagine getting possession of 1.8 million homes for free. There's no loss to them since all the properties will increase in value and the millions of unfortunates who got foreclosed on had likely made payments - and all have definitely lost their deposits.
What a great time to get into mortgage lending.
The bankers must be roaring their heads off.
John Colenutt, Vancouver, canada
What company/loan officer took the Loan Application?
Who got the credit report and verifications of income. Ratio of debt vs
income to repay.
Who made the appraisal. Was he/she qualified to make it?
Who approved the loan? A loan committee, an individual?
What was the lender's underwriting standards?
Or, did any one really give a damn?.
Who packaged these loans for sale to other investors?
Who were they. Domestic or foreign?
Were these loans sold off the shelf,and the lender kept the orgination fees/points? Or did the lender keep part ownership and the servicing?
Who handled the collections of past due payments?
Were the lenders Federal Insured Lenders, or just who??
I am an old 76 year old "thank God, retired loan officer," who used to approve ALOT of real estate loans.. for many years.. VERY, VERY
FEW FORECLOSURES.
We USED to base a loan on the person, his/her credit history, the collateral of an honest appraisal and the ability to REPAY( The 3 CCC's)
What happened?
George T. Ziegler, Kearney, Missouri
Mr Kroszner said: âWe are looking very seriously at whether we can write rules that will be helpful to protect consumers in this [sub-prime mortgage] market while maintaining responsible credit from responsible lenders that can be handled responsibly by people in this market.â
Why the need to use the word "responsible" THREE times in this ONE statement?
Because the whole world banking system is utterly, completely, entirely IRRESPONSIBLE ! I don't expect any changes in that regard in my lifetime.
Steve in Maryland, Germantown, Maryland
Obviously very unfortunate circumstances for those suffering mortgage stress, and similarly for those investors who have bought the tranches of ARMs.
In Australia homeowners typically borrow with a variable rate mortgage that seems similar to ARMs. Fixed interest loans are also available but tend to used by investors. In a way this system gives the Australian Reserve Bank more ability to control inflation when interest rates are increased, and similarly to assist when rates fall. The system appears robust provided mortgages are provided sensibly.
Nevertheless we are now seeing more frequently Australian newspaper articles about rising bankruptcies and foreclosures. Most are due to mortgage stress (defined as spending more than 30% of income on a mortgage.)
Hugh, Sydney, Australia
As you point out, the banks are attempting to work out alternate payment schedules with the delinquent borrowers There is however, a significant complication. Many of the delinquent mortgages no longer belong to the banks . Over the last several years, they were sold to mortgage consolidators who included them in pools that were in turn re-sold in tranches to investors. In quite a lot of cases, it is nearly impossible to determine who has the authority to renegotiate any particular mortgage agreement. Worse, many of the delinquents can't really qualify for a loan or meet even liberal repayment terms. So, 720,000 losses strikes me as rather optimistic; the real numbers are apt to be much higher . To be polite about it, this is not a Monet.
Jungle Jim , Clearwater, Florida
I think the ARM rest number should be $1 trillion or about 492 bil pounds, not $1 billion. Excellent article othewise. It does look as if the 1.8 mil foreclosure number is quite a bit on the conservative side. Just a straight-line projection of the first half numbers gets you there but the 2nd quarter was higher than the first and nearly every month higher than the last.
Lastly, the number of homes seized will likely be higher than 40% of foreclosures. That ratio dates to a time when a lot of folks who got in trouble could easily sell for enough to pay off the loan or refinance based on a higher current price. Increasingly, those options appear to be - ahem - foreclosed.
Deron, Arlington, Texas USA
If 58% of foreclosures this year relate to sub-prime, 42% relate to so-called better quality loans such as Alt-A and prime. Little or no documentation, teaser low rates with amortization and also rife amongst Alt-A loans - the difference being borrowers' better credit records. But a good record could be obtained by no defaults over the last two years. So-called prime loans were often super-prime that met the criteria limiting size of loan and loan to value ratio. Many qualified by being accompanied by piggy-back second mortgages which lifted the loan ceiling and loan to value levels.
While this article purports to state that the sub-prime problem is as bad if not worse than feared, the more powerful message in the data is that the problem is in no way confined to sub-prime mortgages.
Brian Reading, Pukekohe, New Zealand