Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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The Bank of England’s Governor braced borrowers for still higher interest rates tonight, warning that “persistent inflationary pressures” meant that it “may need to take further action”.
In a hawkish speech to business leaders in Wales, Mervyn King reinforced his tough message with a reminder to businesses and households that they must factor in the prospect of dearer borrowing in their budget plans.
“It is unwise to borrow so much that the repayments are affordable only if interest rates remain at initial levels,” he told a CBI Wales dinner, in an apparent warning against financial complacency.
Ahead of figures today that are set to show a further drop in headline inflation, Mr King said that its recent jump above 3 per cent “does look temporary”. Cheaper fuel was likely to keep inflation falling “for several months”, he added.
However he emphasised that the Bank must instead focus on the medium-term, and that, “even accounting for the temporary influences, more persistent inflationary pressures have picked up”.
He spotlighted growing attempts by businesses to raise prices as spare capacity has been taken up by strong demand stoked by a buoyant world economy, as well as the fastest growth in business investment for almost a decade.
Stronger demand had yet to be offset by any consumer slowdown (despite past base rate rises), he pointed out.
Mr King also underlined his anxieties over present, very rapid growth in money supply and credit, as well as a “drift up” in expectations of future inflation among businesses and individuals.
“There has been some underlying upward pressure on inflation that is in part hidden by the volatility in domestic energy prices,” he insisted.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee would now be closely watching gauges of spare capacity, of companies’ pricing plans, and of inflation expectations, he said.
“If these indicators remain elevated, the MPC may need to take further action.”
The Governor conceded that a 14 per cent annual growth rate of bank lending, a pace last seen in 1990, could be partly driven by heightened demand by households and companies to hold more capital — which he said would have “few, if any, implications for inflation”.
But amid divisions on the MPC over the importance of strong credit growth, the Governor spelled out his view that it posed a clear inflationary threat. “It would be optimistic in the extreme to suppose that the rapid growth of money and credit could be dismissed solely as a positive shock to the demand for money,” he said.
He also argued that while strong inward migration from Eastern Europe and elsewhere had helped reduced risks from pay pressures, this had not completely offset the impact of very strong demand.
If inflation was to remain around its 2 per cent target, Mr King suggested that companies would need to “expand employment to relieve pressures on their capacity, and they will need to do so with only limited impact on pay”.
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Buoyant UK May sales [despite rain], an economy growing at close to capacity, low inventories by business, record export orders, high consumer confidence in the economy etc all suggest interest rates should be significantly much higher than 5.5%.
Rising yields in bonds worldwide show that financial markets believe global interest rates will move higher to curb inflation and increased consumer spending. Yet the MPC dithers in raising interest rates.
Consumers now spend more on themselves (food \ luxurious goods \ cosmetics) - a quasi narcissus complex. Interest rates of 5.5% will not dampen consumer spending. This is confirmed by the US May retail sales figures. Despite gasoline prices rising to a record $3.24 a gallon, US consumer kept on spending and driving in May 2007. We have also become averse to debt. The narcissus complex coupled with our aversion to debt means consumers will borrow to spend on themselves and the MPC should take note.
John Fernandez, London, Uk
The MPC's big mistake in my opinion was the 25 basis points cut in the base rate to 4.5% in August 2005. That is the root cause of the latest surge in property prices and the 'correction' one year later was very much as other correspondents here are saying, "too little, too late".
To keep eveything under control, UK interest rates are now going to go higher and stay there longer than they otherwise would have.
CoogarUK, Dorchester,
If Mervyn King thinks inflationary pressures are building and that action is needed, then he could do better than making speeches about that in Wales: he could actually raise interest rates. It is part of his job to control them after all. That is one good thing about being Governor of the BoE - you actually have an influence over interest rates so you can take action when inflationary pressures are growing. Unlike the rest of us and the members of the audience at his speech who presumably are wondering why interest rates are still on hold if the Governor is so concerned about inflation??!!?
MB, Edinburgh,
Mr King is acting in the interests of the banking community and not in the interests of citizens of Britain. It is a false economy to believe in any of the statistics he uses to lay pain and suffering upon those struggling to keep up with rising interest levels on debt. Is he saying that people shouldn't borrow money for fear of rising interest rates perpetrated by him and his money hungry mob of tie wearers.
Mr King speaks with forked tongue and I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw a bar a bullion. He will be the architect of Britains ruin.
Dr A Fellows, London, UK
So we're told inflation is likely to fall further over the coming months because of cheaper fuel? I thought fuel prices and oil had risen recently again?
The cost of housing continues to grow at over 10% a year and yet the official inflation rate is expected to fall back to 2%, do these figures have any credibility any more? They seem to be geared around keeping rates as low as possible.
Simon, Chester, UK
The sad reality is that the BOE is not really independent at all.It is full of Labour government appointees.
They are rapidly losing credibility and never attained that which the old German Bundesbank had.
Inflation from where I am standing in central London is out of control with some house prices apparently jumping 40% in the first quarter.
Chasing inflation is a very dangerous game and interest rates could well be back at 10% before they hit 5%.
The BOE didn't raise rates last week because they were scared about what the stock market will do!
The sooner they take the medicine(i.e raise interest rates),the sooner inflation can be tamed.
The current strategy is both naive and dangerous
James.P. Blyth Currie, London, UK
Mervyn King and the MPC have been the curve for a considerable period of time now. They are also using a measure of inflation ( CPI ) which bears little resemblence to the prices of goods and services which people use throughout their real lives.
Gordon Brown has been in danger of losing his ill-deserved reputation for 'prudence' for a very long time now. Still, he can always use the MPC as his scapegoat as their credentials for fighting inflation disappeared around the time Eddie George retired.
Rick, London, England
Meryn King's testimony reads as a litany of the BoE's failure. The BoE has patently failed to meet it's target and crucially, has let inflation expectations get out of control through it's persistent weakness.
I emailed the Mervyn King last year urging for an early, sharper rise in rates to anchor inflation expectations. Instead, the BoE has dithered and dithered while inflation has become endemic. The well flagged quarter point rises coming after months of procrastination have done little to convince people the BoE is serious.
King believes monetary policy should be "boring" i.e. predictable. Unfortunately, predictability makes people complacent and sends the wrong signal to a fast growing economy where high levels of debt are seen as acceptable. The BoE should have made a 0.5% move much sooner to crush inflation early.
Now we are faced with the real danger that rates have to rise higher than anyone expects, or would have been necessary were it for prompt action.
Haroon Abbasi, London, England
Oh some people have short memories! For the first part of the MPC's existence they mostly undershot the inflation target. The clamour then was to lower rates. Recently they have overshot, mainly due to the rapid rise in energy last year. Trying to control inflation with interest rates is like trying to move accurately a weight on the end of a spring, by holding the wrong end! It's very, very difficult. But in my opinion the MPC is the best option we have ... and their overall record is very, very good.
Bill, Reigate, Surrey
Is this the unacceptable face of capitalism, where low interest rates have forced our young people into huge debt to buy housing? Now the rates seem to be going up, potentialy causing thousands of people anguish. (The politicians would love us to believe that) Or is it simply the fault of our government with it's prescriptive centralised housing policy, (policy-what policy?) building thousands of empty flats, (coupled with a huge shortage of houses in places where people actualy want to live) flats are owned by speculators and those buy to let people who no longer believe in the safety of pensions. This I think is government meddling at it's very worst in all areas of life and it's all going to end in tears.
What we want is less of that dreaded word 'government initiatives' like H.I.P.S. and more resignations.
Newton, Liverpool,
Javed - banks already have different borrowing costs for different purposes! The 'Base Rate' is the rate at which 'High Street Banks' borrow from our central bank, the Bank of England. These High Street Banks then adjust rates according to risk of the borrower. In addition, I would say that most people (and indeed the MPC) were very happy when rates were low since it was driving house prices (and other asset prices) up. The MPC were unconcerned with this house price bubble, so they should be unconcerned with any bursting of the bubble - there should be no asymmetry in their response. Their mandate is inflation - long may it remain so.
Robert Smalley, London, UK
Why is Retail Price Inflation 'bad' yet Asset Price Inflation 'good'? The latter appears to be the real threat to economic stability...
Mike, Tunbridge Wells,
This old general purpose interest rate should be overhauled. Why can't interest rates be different for different types of borrowing? This shot gun approach is too damaging and may cause the country to go into a recession.
javed, london, uk
With the high cost of housing and food prices going up I'm looking for a 7% increase in my professional service charge. It's all about inflation now. The BoE have mismanaged asset inflation because they have been more interested in sustaining consumer demand rather than the real mandate they were given for managing inflation.
MGS, Stoke on Trent,
For all Mr King's rhetoric, the truth is the MPC is chasing inflation not controlling it. When interest rates go up, interest on newly issued government gilts also goes up. The amount the UK pays to service the debt goes up and correspondingly the UK's debt increases. The MPC erred in leaving interest rates too low for too long and then hestitating in raising interest rates until August 2006..
Peter Jones, Peterborough, UK
Hands up all those that believe that 2.8% is the TRUE rate of inflation in britain today. So how accurate are current intrest rates,
PM, Kendal, England
CWW of Suffolk is correct.
Whilst the consumer continues accepts the hype of CPR at around 3% or RPI at 4.5% then borrowing money will always seem both accessible and cheap unless it is matched by the REAL inflation rate of 8 or 9%, currently hitting most peoples domestic and daily expenditure.
William Grierson, Kimpton, Nr Hitchin, U.K.
Demand for short term industrial credit and further upward pressure of consumer credit highlights the downside of the blunt instrument of interest rate control by the Bank of England. Pehaps the Chancellor should have a seat on the M.P.C.
John Reay, rhyl, wales
The interest rate has been FAR too low for FAR too long. Recent hikes are FAR too little FAR too late. Even within its remit there was no real need to lower the rate SEVERAL times, particularly after 9/11. The MPC have had loads of opportunities to restore the rate back to neutrality which I reckon is now in the 8-9% territory which is historically the long term average and it's still lower than it was in 1990 but the economy today is much stronger than it was all those years ago...
CWW, Suffolk,
Banks and our leadership suck :-( boooo
Where do you think we get the money from for all these extra rises, soon ill be having to lean on my credit card to help me get by, Get a grip, useless the lot of you.
JOIN THE EURO, JOIN THE EURO,JOIN THE EURO
Steve, blackpool, lancs