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Nigel Terrington, chief executive of Paragon Group, Britain’s largest buy-to-let lender, on housing
“The UK market is undergoing a significant structural change. There is a material increase in tenant demand now and into the future, which is driving demand for buy-to-let landlords. On the demand side, there is a rising population, particularly in population groups likely to rent. Buyers increasingly use property as a pension. There is a fundamental shortage of housing that will not be addressed quickly. Interest rates are higher but they are more likely to act as a greater constraint on first-time buyers. Any weakness in house prices will be seen as a buying opportunity for landlords . . . The redemption rate [for our borrowers] has been slowing as landlords are keeping their properties longer. They do not buy like an equity. It is an illiquid asset – expensive to get in and expensive to get out. The average hold period is 16 years. If they hold on for the long term, they will not be affected by short-term issues.”
Jennet Siebrits, head of residential research at CBRE Hamptons
“Growth at this rate cannot carry on but we are not in a crash scenario. The difference between supply and demand is huge. For every nine wanting to buy, there is only one property. In 2008 house prices could be between 5 per cent and 7 per cent and London is certainly going to outperform for the foreseeable future.”
Stephen Hester, chief executive of British Land, on commercial property
“I believe that real estate markets are fairly priced . . . When people mean the top, it means things could go down. I don’t think the property market is likely to go down . . . Property is not going to surge again as it is at fair value. Property has taken a leap forward in the past two to three years, but there are still decent risk-adjusted returns.”
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It would be funny if it wasn't so bad. as to economists views. I think they published the comments from a member of LSE who estimated that the property market was overvalued by about 50% (i cannot remember the exact figure). whichever way this goes there will be further misery, either for people who have bought and find themselves in negative equity, or first time buyers unable to get on the property ladder. the only winners are the banks and the estate agents, who are those who should loose for once, but no real chance there.
Ben , folkestone, uk
So a buy-to-let mortgage lender, a commercial real estate advisor and a property investment company think that the property market can only continue to rise and rise for all eternity and will always be a good investment. Considering the fact that these people all depend on the property market to make a living, I think I'll hang on to my shares and savings for now, thanks very much.
Any chance of the Times actually printing the informed opinion of some trained economists on housing who do not rely on it to make a living?
MB, Edinburgh,
Hold the front page - estate agents say property is a good investment! Shock horror!
Property at fair value? That's what the estate agents were saying in the USA a year or two back. No mass unemployment or 15% interest rates there. And yet they have a property slump. And where the US economy goes, the UK one follows as surely as good little Tony follows George.
It is bad debts that will bring the house of cards down. BTLs are losing money week after week, many others with 'lie to buy' mortgages are struggling. Each interest rate rise stems the tide of cheap money and irresponsible lending and the market cannot inflate without a constant injection of inflationary borrowed money.
Paul, Dubai, UAE
Don't u remember estate agents never tell the truth - at any a time if u ask them about property market - they say it is fair and it will go up. But perhaps it is their job to say so.
Whether property is overpriced demands on how much people want to pay for it. When the bubble burst and people don't want to pay so much, it will fall.
As the economy is still strong, banks are still willing to borrow, interest rates still relatively low, investors are still active, supply of houses is low (not city centre flats BTW), I dont think it will 'Fall' for many months.
Sad but true !
Ben, manchester,
Right, so houses are pretty much unaffordable for first time buyers.
Now rent is possibly going up (according to Terrington) as landlords cash in on the problems facing first time buyers, further exploiting the financial vulnerabilities of the young.
Nor I can't live with my parents because they live in a dead-end town with no jobs for professional engineers.
I guess I could always pitch a tent on St. James Park and watch the politicians go to work everday...
Dr. Neil Bourhill, Birmingham, West Midlands
Is this an article? were these folks asked a specific question? or did they want just to let us know that their profiteering from broad classes of the population is destined to continue forever?
I think I am missing the point here...
Michele, Richmond,
This is the funniest article I have read all year. Thanks for making me laugh.
However, should this article not be in the entetainment section of this website?
Andrew, southend, essex
All 3 views are from people with a vested interested in preventing a crash - can we have some unbiased views!??
sukh, london, essex