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Banking stocks on Wall Street bore the brunt of a brutal sell-off across the equity market in New York last night on fears that the United States was facing a 1970s-style stagflation crisis triggered by record oil prices.
The Dow Jones industrial average suffered one of its worst trading days this year, closing down 394.60 points – a 3.13 per cent slide – to close at 12209.80. But banking stocks fell more steeply, Morgan Stanley by 9 per cent and Lehman Brothers by 5 per cent.
The decline on the New York stock market was sparked by a sharp increase in the price of oil – up $11 to $139 a barrel – and official data which showed that the number of Americans out of work had risen at the fastest rate in 22 years.
The cost of sweet light crude oil shot up to a record after Morgan Stanley told its clients that the price would hit $150 a barrel within a month. The bank predicted that investors would continue to buy oil to offset the impact of the weakening US dollar on their portfolios.
After the publication of the grim jobs data, a spokesman for the White House hinted that President Bush was considering new measures to stimulate the economy, only a month after Washington returned $168 billion (£85 billion) of tax rebates to American families.
The US Labour Department reported that 5.5 per cent of the American workforce was unemployed last month, up significantly from 5 per cent in April. The rise – which equates to 49,000 people losing their jobs over the past four weeks – was the biggest monthly jump since February 1986 and left the overall jobless rate at the highest level since October 2004. Wall Street had expected a 5.1 per cent rise.
The Administration spokesman said: “Certainly, this isn’t a report that we wanted to see today. It is a number that is too high in our view but it is lower than the average of the last three decades.”
Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist for High Frequency Economics, said: “May payrolls fell 49,000, close to the consensus of 60,000, but the key number in the report is the unemployment rate, which leapt by a huge 0.5 percentage points to 5.5 per cent from 5.0 per cent.”
He said that, annualised, the unemployment rate equated to a fall of 343,000 jobs, which is “the biggest so far in the cycle” and he predicted that there would be “more to come, too”.
Philip Rones, deputy commissioner of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, said: “The over-the-month jump in unemployment reflected additional workers who had lost their jobs as well as an upsurge in new and returning jobseekers.”
Many economists believe that unemployment will continue to rise to about 6 per cent by the end of the year as the world’s biggest economy continues to slow. Although the bulk of redundancies have been made in financial services and construction, sharp job losses are beginning to be recorded across other sectors, such as retailing and manufacturing, in a move which suggests that the credit crisis that erupted on Wall Street last summer has spread across the whole US economy.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, said: “For the average American there is no debate that the economy is in a recession. That’s because their net worth is lower, their purchasing power is lower and it is tough to find a job. If you lose a job, it is tough to get back in.”
Traders were worried about the declines among banking shares after rumours this week that another Wall Street bank may be encountering liquidity problems. Lehman Brothers was forced to issue a statement this week to quell speculation that it was experiencing such difficulties.
Gloomy figures
49,000
Americans lost their jobs over the past four weeks, the biggest monthly jump
since February 1986
5
The number of consecutive months that US unemployment has risen
$139
Price reached by light sweet crude oil traded in New York after a rise of $11
394.60
Fall in the Dow Jones industrial average. At the close yesterday it stood at
12,209.80
Source: The Times
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I don't think that oil will level off until demand from China and India is satisfied. This might come sooner than later with world demand heading downward. This would not play to Russia's strength so we might see some producers cutting back.
V Cooper, Yeovil, UK
CEO of SHELL have said that there IS NO reason why oil is so expencive.
Petrobras has just found a HUGE oil field outside Brazil.
In the Gulf of mexico there is so much oil it will last for OVER 200 years.
BTW oil aint Fossil Fuel.
It's something Earth produces and will Never run out.
Jason, Helsinki, Finland.
World war three will be initiated by Israel. They can keep their Zion.
Charles, Cirencester, Great Britain
The first time that 2 of the Financial Services and hedge funds acknowledged that their profit-making needs in Oil futures is what is driving the oil futures up. But then, does the re-run of gold price increase indicate that the oil investors will lose steam?
Jagadish, Bromley, UK
didn't Bush do well? now he's managed to destroy 2 economies
Peter c, Devizes,
It feels and sounds like a new war is in the making, and people in the know are going long. For them to end in the money, Israel (and maybe U.S.A.) should attack Iran before their futures contracts expire. IMHO, things will get real interesting within a month.
Anatoly, Moscow, Russia
All of this can be laid at the feet of the Bush Administration who let the dollar fall in an effort to show an improvement in the "trade imbalance" The Fed for some reason is cozying up to them.
Nothing happens at that stratified level unless it is carefully planned.
mrw, Phila, usa
The lack of regulation of financial markets and banks is coming
home to roost, the last time things were this wild west ish
it lead to a depression, lets hope we are luckier this time,
but somehow I doubt if things can be fixed.
The lessons of the thirties are forgotten
now,
david, boston, usa
Leave the oil in the ground in 10 years it will be priceless.
Fact oil will run out and this is why the refinery capacity is being reduced to keep the flow back.
Also with the higher prices shale oil and the high soot oil is worth drilling for.
No oil company will find new fields which will be easy
Jay , Manchester , uk
With both a falling UK and USA stock market the only way to make money is to spread bet and manipulate the markets with OIl and food prices.
Typical market forces however long term we will have little to control.
Fuel savings are needed today.
USA needs to wake up 4 litre engines and 15 mpg is a no.
Jay , Manchester , uk
Of course, the fact that Hillary Clinton conceded at 9AM EST that morning had NOTHING to do with it. The fact that the smart money KNOWS that John McCain and 4 more years of endless imperialistic war in the Mideast and God forbid a nuclear attack on Iran WINS and will keep driving up oil prices.
Leslie Bell, Las Vegas, USA
The crude oil party is over. It took billions of years to form and we (largely the west) have raped this planet in only 100. Shame on us. We better find an alternative to crude oil fast because it is rapidly running out and yes, ladies & gents, it is going to keep getting more expensive.
Babis, London, UK
Pehaps the time has come to take over the oil fields, or are we to be held to ransom for the rest of our lives.
victor arram, westcliff,
Including expectations of future shortage or even uncertainty about supply in today's prices is elementary trading, not speculation. There is no shortage of oil and the market is working properly.
Of course people don't like high oil prices, but that's life.
Golodh, London, UK
The Mullahs of Iran v/s Isreal .... the conflict in the mideast continues.
Will world war 3 start in the middle east?
Vishal Patel, London, UK
The rise in OIL or other commodity prices, is nothing more than a reflection of how much the worlds central banks have been, and are now inflating their respective FIAT monetary systems.
As they inflate the supply of money, so they de-value the currency already in circulation, SO THINGS COST MORE.
Guru, Harrogate, UK
"the volatility in the oil markets is being caused by the banks."
No it hasn't. It's been caused by an unnessecary war in Iraq.
Until the world wakes up and accepts what a terrible crime the US and UK have committed, it's impossible to correct the current situation.
richard, gibralter,
Why isn't there a mention of Israel and Mofaz's afirmation of the necessity of attacking Iran in the near future as a direct cause for the spike in oil prices? Reuters has put this angle on the news in it's dispaches.
leo bassi, madrid, spain
The world wouldnt have any cheaper oil now then under the kickbacks during the Oil for Food scandle. If the US invaded for oil, then why is our oil so high? Either ive been cheated out of cheap oil or the No Blood for Oil slogan was wrong. Yes, blame the US for high oil now. US has doomed us all!
William, Atlanta, USA
I've made profit on the surge in oil prices. Frankly, with equities in all but the oil & mining sector tanking and bonds incapable of protecting my hard-earned savings from the ravages of inflation, oil's the only play in town.
Justin Thyme, Bangkok, Thailand
Exactly the same position here with gordon trying to save his political skin by pushing the governer of the boe about.
Head of the ecb rightly says that euopean intrest rates may have to rise.
bob, hants,
Who is behind the rise of oil and food price? Somebody must be getting filthy rich at the expenses of so many! Is there nothing that goverments can do, are we powerless in front of a greedy lot of investors? Who are these investors anyway? Can terrorist cells be part of them?
Maria, northampton, England uk
This is huge. Interest rates cannot possibly be cut theres no slack left. A rock bottom dollar obviously means that the price of commodities are a premium. The Euro is strong with stable inflation throughout Europe and steady growth in the central block nations. How does the US respond.
gareth, london, uk
the volatility in the oil markets is being caused by the banks - only they have the financial clout to move the markets this way. physical traders seeking to trade and hedge are being caught out time and time again by huge movements in the paper price. lets not be fooled, its not supply and demand.
zugerman, zurich, switzerland
The Fed have eased off too quickly . It was good to see Bernanke admit that inflation was the main danger but now urgent action is needed - he could increase the Fed rate by atleast 0.5%. As for bird brain Bush, pumping paper money into the problem will fan the flames & turn the dollar into confetti
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
Tony, Brighton. Government interference in free markets is disasterous. The oil price is a reflection of a weakening dollar. Baseless accusations against traders shows a lack of understanding of the real problems which is governments, with too much debt, printing money with nothing to back it up.
Edward, London,
All this stems from the bad decision to invade Iraq. Monstrous amounts of money and lives were wasted there, and still are. Huge amounts of oil flow away to the US military daily. Iraq will be seen as a turning point at which the wolrd lost confidence in the US to manage its political affairs.
Colin, shrewsbury,
In an attempt to avoid a recession the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to such an extent that the falling dollar and consequential rise in oil prices is causing a worldwide inflation nightmare.
john, milton keynes,
Let's see, Wall Street begs for rate cuts and the Fed delivers. Investors abandon the US dollar in favour of commodities, pushing the price of oil to record levels. Now Wall Street panics because of the consequence of the rate cuts it was begging for.
Paul, Coventry,
The European and American governments should temporarily stop the oil profitiring traders.
Tony, Brighton, uk
The US is doomed. More economic stimulus packages, more talking up an impotent currency, foreclosures in the Alt-A and prime sectors gathering pace, $4 gasoline, accelerating corporate bond defaults and the looming implosion of the credit default swap market . . . Buy gold, buy silver . . .
Ray, London,
$118 to $139 in two days has nothing to do with conventional laws of supply and demand
SS, Edinburgh,