Tom Bawden in New York
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New year celebrations may not always usher in a better year. As Wall Street reflects on the misery of the past six months – the credit crisis, sub-prime losses, executive sackings and share-price slides – many say that the worst is yet to come.
As Goldman Sachs pointed out last week, Citigroup still has an estimated $25 billion (£12.5 billion) of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) on its books, the bundled packages of sub-prime loans that are now perceived as so risky they are effectively worthless.
Merrill Lynch, which is expected to admit to writedowns of almost $12 billion in the fourth quarter alone, has about $8 billion of CDOs in its portfolio. According to Goldman estimates, JPMorgan is exposed to around $5 billion of the securities.
Even though American banks have collectively written off at least $60 billion in combined sub-prime-related securities, James Owers, Professor of Finance at Georgia State University, says that “the worst credit crunch in modern history still has some way to go yet . . . The repercussions will eventually be more widespread than the savings and loan crisis.” (This occurred in the 1980s and led to the closure of 1,000 American building societies, with the loss of $150 billion).
Goldman Sachs said that “it will be a couple of quarters before the current credit crisis will be fully digested by the markets”.
The bank also thinks that its rivals are unlikely to be able to hope that they can offset the misery of their sub-prime investments with revenues from investment banking and M&A, both of which it expects to stagnate in 2008.
Yet while few Americans are likely to feel sympathy with Wall Street bankers, they may worry that banks’ reluctance to take on more risk and extend credit lines to American businesses could push the country into recession. Moody’s Investors Service pointed out to clients last week: “The continued uncertainty of what land-mines remain on bank balance sheets has the potential to spill over into restricted lending to industrial firms.”
The fallout from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown has hit all lending. Private equity firms have been hit particularly hard because, typically, they finance about two thirds of each leveraged buyout with debt in high-risk deals that, in this climate, are causing the banks to balk.
The impact on private equity deals has been enormous. Some deals that were agreed before the credit crunch took hold, such as the takeover of Home Depot’s building supplies unit by a consortium including Carlyle, saw their prices cut dramatically – in that case, by $2 billion. Other deals collapsed as the private equity firms were unable to secure financing or were not prepared to complete the transaction. In October, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Goldman Sachs walked away from their $8 billion takeover of Harman International, the audio speaker maker. JC Flowers’s bid to buy Sallie Mae, the student lender, for $26 billion, fell through.
Risk on Wall Street
— Citigroup Tipped to cut dividend by 40 per cent and to write off $18.7bn in Q4. Expected to raise up to $10bn of new capital. Sitting in $25bn of CDO investments
— Merrill Lynch Expected to write off $11.5bn in Q4; still exposed to $8bn in CDOs
— JPMorgan Expected to write off $3.4bn in Q4; still exposed to $5bn of CDOs
Source: Goldman Sachs Note December 26 2007
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I live in Australia where people still seem to think China and India will make us immune to the subprime melt down. I beg to differ but real estate here is still going through the roof. I am amazed how the main stream media gloss over the economic predicament the US and world economy is facing. Just consider the economic data this time last year compared to now. It is like chalk and cheese. The frightening thing is that none of the presidential hopefuls appear to see the core issues of the problem. Too much ever increasing government and private debt and an economy dependent on massive consumer spending plus excess liquidity to drive up asset inflation. An unsustainable economic black hole. (I won't mention the war or inflation.)
You can't implement the solution if you can't identify the problem.
I am amused how all these self proclaimed capitalists become frantic socialists running to the government nipple when their bets go bad.
How bad is it in your estimation? A big capital "R" Recession no matter how much government stimulus? One thing for sure is that Helicopter Ben can't reduce interest rates lower than 0%.
Edward, Abergowrie, Australia
One area that gets little coverage is the impact of the mortgage meltdown on the holders of 2nd mortgages/TDs.
Many borrowers got "piggyback" 2nds on purchasing a home,and homeowners took out a lot of home equity loans in in the past several years.
With the prices on homes coming down, holders of 2nds have
little or no protection in case of default on the first mortgage, and will lose 100% of the value of their loans. The holder of
the first mortgage can foreclose and recover a major portion
of the balance owed. Holders of 2nds are likely to be "sold
out" and recover NOTHING. Many of these loans are held by
banks and credit unions - there may be a big surprise coming.
Analysts and investors need to take a closer look. The Federal Reserve has reported that purchases in 2005-6
involved a 2nd TD/mortgage in over 20% of the transactions.
Looks like another "black hole" to me with billions of dollars
in the loss column.
Phil Reynolds, Rancho Murieta, California
Real estate investing isn't inherently worse than any other type of investing. The problem was that institutions were investing without understanding the risks and without taking adequate measures to protect against these risks.
The problem wasn't that the Fed made money too cheap, the problem was with lenders who, empowered by securitizations, made money to easy to get. This isn't about teaser rates on loans. It's about high LTV, high DTI, low FICO loans with no income verification.
Dan, Shreveport, LA
I wish I could be shocked by this. Just a little bit. My small bit of to-date-inconsequential satisfaction has been to vote against all US incumbents.
Rick, Orlando, USA
As in every boom and bust since the Federal Reserve came into existence, bank profits are privatized and losses are socialized. Taxpayers should prepare for a historical wealth transfer.
Jerry Davis, Kannapolis, NC
I think we are about to see what the current Fed is made of.
The consumer is stuck with his debt, and no help will be forthcoming. So any solution to the credit crisis will be for the benefit of the commercial and investment banks.
What difference does it make to the nation at large whether another LBO ever happens or whether another CDS is ever traded? What difference does it make if every firm on Wall Street has to cut its salaries, bonuses, and dividends to the bone?
The Fed will either release a flood of liquidity in order to refloat all the beached whales of Wall Street, and in the process create a tsunami of inflation, or it will show some balls and make all bear the burden in proportion to the gains they have made by its own ruinous policy.
Howard Johnson, Knoxville, TN
These 3 letter credit packages have to be worth something,
maybe 60 cents on the dollar.They are houses somewhere
which are assets. Maybe this will keep wall street out of houses for at least 10 years.
Joe Sixpack, Peoria Il.,