Tom Bawden
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times
Fallout from the sub-prime mortgage crisis wreaked further havoc yesterday as Bank of America, Wachovia and PNC all said that investment write-downs would be worse than forecast as the credit crunch worsened.
Bank of America, which said last month that it may need to write down the value of its mortgage bond portfolio by about $3 billion (£1.4 billion) this quarter, conceded that the losses would probably be considerably higher. Wachovia, separately, doubled its provision for fourth-quarter loan losses to about $1 billion, while PNC, in Pennsylvania, said that it would take a $110 million fourth-quarter charge, most of it relating to residential mortgages. Meanwhile, shares in Sallie Mae fell by 13 per cent, the most in 14 years, after America’s largest student lender cut its profit forecast for 2008 by 17 per cent.
Kenneth Lewis, Bank of America’s chief executive, said at a conference in New York, sponsored by Goldman Sachs: “You certainly can assume results will again be quite disappointing. Our trading revenue has been considerably depressed by the lack of business activity and widening spreads in a number of product catergories.”
The credit markets “have turned down again and will probably remain challenging into next year,” he said.
At the same conference, Kennedy Thompson, Wachovia’s chief executive, described the credit markets as the toughest in his 32-year career and said that no one knew when the situation would improve. “None of us know what inning we are in. We know credit quality isn’t improving out there,” he said.
The root of the credit crunch lies in the sudden jump in defaults on American sub-prime mortgages in the spring, after several years of increasingly lax lending by brokers and home-loan companies.
This has fed through into a broader credit crunch as multibillion-dollar losses on Wall Street reduce the banks’ scope for lending and make investors more cautious about buying bonds and other securities.
Yesterday Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, described the sub-prime mortgage crisis as an “accident waiting to happen” as a period of unprecedented global growth lulled investors into a false sense of security. “The root of the current crisis, as I see it, lies back in the aftermath of the Cold War, when market capitalism quietly, but rapidly, displaced much of the discredited central planning that was so prevalent in the Third World,” Mr Greenspan argued in an article printed in The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
“The resulting growth of fairly educated low-cost workers in those countries, together with an increase in their exports, combined to keep down wages and inflation in the developed world.
“Interest rates are, in part, designed to reduce the impact of inflation, which erodes an asset’s value in real terms. As the outlook for inflation continued to remain low, so interest rates came down and borrowing for mortgages and other assets went up.”
Mr Greenspan noted that home prices had risen sharply around the world and that increases in the United States were only “average”.
He believes that there was little that the Federal Reserve could have done to prevent credit markets from seizing up in August: “After more than half a century observing price bubbles evolve and deflate, I have reluctantly concluded that bubbles cannot be safely defused by monetary policy or other policy initiatives before the speculative fever breaks on its own.”
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Our markets will continue to bluster and defibrillate until Congress rightly puts the money printing press back under the American people. We should NOT be paying interest on our own money. Congress needs to pass laws requiring banks to do away with their "off balance" sheets. There should be a limit, say one year, for them to show their losses so that our economy can recover. We should never save the stockmarket over inflation for the people. Greed has been the driver and its time we come back to morals.
Kah, Cape Girardeau, MO
It should be added that crap shooting appraisers hitting their numbers for the lenders and bait and switch loan brokers also added to the party. Just throw the house keys on the counter and stop making payments which are going down the rat hole. Let the seller beware !
Richard Leigh, El Cerrito, CA, USA
Greedy investors, dumb lenders, racist fraud perpetrators, bought and sold regulators, trough gouging flippers please don't slam the door on your way out ! Bank reserves adios pepe !
Richard Leigh, El Cerrito, CA, USA
It would n't have taken much insight to see that cheap credit was being hedged into housing and the building plots beneath them instead of managing demand for goods and services.Perhaps the dull young men wasting time and money creating complex algorithms to predict economic trends to no purpose whatsoever would have been better off reading Henry George and Silvio Gesell who said years ago that free market economies could be overwhelmed by inflated property prices .Greenspan calls the collapse of the property bubble "an accident waiting to happen" but it was avery slow motion accident which a lot of people could see a long way off..
DBC Reed, Northampton, UK
The credit crunch is caused by the Banks to cover Bank fraud. They have bundeledfraud/ mortages-forsed by tax aprasel and sold them to Government agencys now they want a bail out for raising interest rates and forclosing on property, that to hold, they will have to put up greater reserves with the fed! Now they want us to pick up the tab.
Charles Case, Sherman, Texas
Cath: Excellent. He's still employed; now his job is to say stuff like this so that they can kill the Dollar, as they planned all along. "The Fed is powerless", Isn't he meddling in the national security of US now?
Not Limey, boston, ma
Ron Paul is raising millions of dollars today right now because people are dissatisfied with the result of the country's financial situation.
JC Bollers, Provo, UT
The root of the current crisis lies in the lack of controls and standards over how money or credit is issued for the largest credit market: mortgages. I just got a letter from country wide financial telling me about their 40 yr loan..... and I can already see another issue with them giving out 40 year mortgages to 55yr old people! Just another crisis waiting to happen in the future.....
These mortgages are again disguised as various exotic investment vehicles and rated by agencies for their risk. We need to extend controls over to the agencies that provide these risk ratings as they clearly seem to have been misguided.
Also the intervention of the Feds seem to have added liquidity to the markets and is aimed at bailing out these banks and nothing is being done to save the homeowners... and also the tax payer is going to have to pay for it in terms of increased inflation. It is time to take a hard look at what went wrong and create controls to prevent future repeats.
Sam, Boston, USA
Don't know how my Indian ancestors lived for 1000's and 1000's of years without the white folks money or world???
ShadowDancer, Flagstaff,
Mr Greenspan was part of the problem. To pontificate is easy. He should have used foresight while he had responsibility, rather than hindsight now. Do I see any apology from him?
Ian J, Woking, UK
âThe root of the current crisis, as I see it, lies back in the aftermath of the Cold War, when market capitalism quietly, but rapidly, displaced much of the discredited central planning that was so prevalent in the Third World,â
Quietly? It was with a triumphant "we won, they lost, our way is the only way, we're totally right, everyone else can go screw themselves" attitude that market capitalism, deregulation and financial deregulation was forced onto much of the rest of the world. The arrogance of the US and Britain since the cold war has been breath-taking, and major wake-up calls such as LTCM and Enron were ignored in favour of continued deregulation and a zealous, neo-liberal agenda of unfettered capitalism.
Greenspan, the BoE and governments appear to have been totally complicit in fuelling this bubble.
Cath, Edinburgh, Scotland
my view is that since mr. greenspan is a gold bug he "enabled" the fiat money disaster thats looming large on the horizon. forcing a return to honest and sound money. it may sound like a crackpot theory but,,,its my take on it judging by all i know about him and of human nature.
joseph canzoneri jr, long island , new york
Alan Greenspanâs policies merely delayed the necessary market corrections. So instead of having a few minor recessions we can now have one really big one.
Well done Mr. Greenspan.
Keith, Ashford,
This is Alan Greenspanâs latest theory on why he does not accept any responsibility for what has happened in global markets. These theories appear to be coming thick and fast from Mr. Greenspan. I am really looking forward to his next theory â¦.. not.
Keith, Ashford,