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As Americans wrestle with their turkey and cranberry sauce today, they can raise a glass of Napa Valley Shiraz in thanks for being part of the wealthiest economy in the world.
The nominal gross domestic product of the United States is about $13,900 billion (£6,740 billion), far ahead of any other country.
The US economy is so vast that even the most aggressive estimate of the costs of the war in Iraq — at $200 billion — represents little more than a typical rounding error for America’s annual accounts.
As they move on to pumpkin pie, ice-cream and Californian dessert wine, they might also be thankful that unlike Japan, their nearest rival in terms of wealth, they have not been in recession for 17 years.
Although Wall Street reckons that the US economy will slow, and possibly slide into recession in the next 12 months, like all developed economies, the US is, and will remain, stable.
Even as the Wisconsin cheese is passed round, Americans should also find reasons to be thankful for the weakness of the once-mighty dollar.
For the average American family, the cheap dollar is effectively a free lunch. As the greenback has tumbled to its lowest for a quarter of a century, exports have boomed, so much so that America’s non-oil trade deficit is on course to be erased within three years.
Typically a weak dollar would result in higher-priced imports, which would increase inflation. However, this time around companies exporting to the US have kept a lid on price rises to maintain market share. Even though Americans have had to grapple with sharp food and fuel price rises, in the year to September, official figures showed that core inflation was running at just 1.8 per cent.
While hardly in the generous spirit of Thanksgiving, many Americans will be able to exploit the misery of the US’s biggest car companies. Saddled with massive pension liabilities and coping with brutal competition from Far Eastern rivals, the price of a Ford or a Chrysler has fallen to the lowest levels for years. Moreover, although the pump price for fuel in America is about $3.15 a gallon — the topic of much grumbling on the forecourts — the price is still well below the £1 a litre that motorists in the UK have to pay.
Americans should also be grateful that the next 12 months may prove to be the best time in a generation to buy a property. Wall Street expects the US housing recession — already the worst for 16 years — to last at least another year. However, some properties in areas of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada that had lost 40 per cent of their value are now showing signs of a modest recovery.
As they venture into malls tomorrow for what is traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year, Americans will find significantly discounted clothing, electrical and DIY goods. Retailers expect $19.1 billion to be spent by 132 million shoppers, a rise of 3.5 per cent on last year. That would represent the slowest rise in spending on Black Friday — the day after Thanksgiving — for five years.
Luxury-end department stores are braced for the worst slowdown, as Americans eye their slowing economy and resist the temptation of treating themselves, instead looking for bargains in cheaper stores. That won’t stop many eagle-eyed shoppers heading for Barneys, where a New York A-line black dress has been reduced from $795 to $479.
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"However, some properties in areas of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada that had lost 40 per cent of their value are now showing signs of a modest recovery."
Wow, I live in California and would love to know exactly where this modest recovery is taking place. The US is staring down the barrel of an insidious housing depression and credit crunch. There are NO signs of recovery to be found. If anything these problems are intensifying,
John, Redondo Beach, CA
You have to admire the USA. They have played the best poker hand they could with a seemingly poor set of cards. It will probably mean Europe and the emerging markets (India / China) leave the table a lot lighter than they could have imagined.
They are the biggest, most dynamic economy for good reason and will continue to deal the cards for sometime to come. Like it or not...
ginge, Dubai, UAE
With all of its problems, America will continue to weather the ups and downs of the global economy as long as it maintains its rule of law, stays a meritocracy and avoids the inefficiency of the corruption tax. China and other parts of the world may appear to make great surges, but the US will stay at the table of greatness until its democracy fails to correct its internal evil like it has done since inception. BUT, if that introspective democratic spirit is ever quenched, American prosperity will be short lived.
Kurt Heckman, Hagerstown, Maryland USA