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America’s leading public finance watchdog has sounded a warning that the US economy is vulnerable to hostile financial actions by nations that are not its “allies”.
David Walker, the US comptroller general, indicated that the huge holdings of American government debt by countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Libya could leave a powerful financial weapon in the hands of countries that may be hostile to US corporate and diplomatic interests.
Mr Walker told The Times that foreign investors have more control over the US economy than Americans, leaving the country in a state that was “financially imprudent”.
He said: “More and more of our debt is held by foreign countries – some of which are our allies and some are not.”
Mr Walker, who heads the Government agency that is responsible for auditing the national accounts and is also the arm of Congress that scrutinis-es spending by the Administration, said that the US has been forced to rely on foreign investors more because Americans are saving so little.
According to US Treasury Department statistics, Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds, with almost $623 billion (£310 billion) of US government debt as of December last year. Mainland China is the second biggest investor, with about $397 billion, and oil exporters, which include Iran and Saudi Arabia, had $110 billion.
The UK, while the biggest foreign investor in US equities, is the fourth-biggest holder of US Treasuries.
While Mr Walker referred to Britain as “the best ally the US could hope for”, he told The Times that “anybody who looks at that list will see that some of the countries there are not traditional US allies. You will see that China, Korea and a number of Opec nations are there. Not all the countries on the list share the same economic, national and foreign polices as the US.”
The worry is that should any of these foreign nations choose to reduce their holdings significantly, it would trigger sharp falls in US government bond prices, driving up their yield, which would raise borrowing costs sharply for American consumers and companies. While most economists take the view that countries such as China are unlikely to reduce their US bond holdings because they would also suffer a fall in the value of their own investments, China could still be perceived as holding a powerful financial weapon.
Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, said: “The US has a symbiotic relationship with China. The US cannot afford for China to sell its US treasuries but, equally, China cannot afford to see the value [of its treasury bonds] slide. They are strategic enemies and are in a financially weird relationship. China’s holdings represent about a third of Chinese GDP.”
China has been buying US Treasury bonds faster than any other big country – it has increased its holdings sixfold in six years. Beijing has accumulated the bonds as a consquence of its extensive programme of intervention in the currency markets. To hold down the value of the yuan, China buys dollar assets and sells the yuan.
This month Mr Walker described the US as suffering from a “fiscal cancer'” because of the massive long-term healthcare liabilities that the nation faces. The financial burden caused by healthcare entitlements has increased from about $20 trillion to $50 trillion over the past six years, representing a $440,000 bill for every American household, he explained. He also added that in 2005 and 2006, Americans spent more money than they took home, the first such pattern since 1933.
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I feel with the way U.S. has held down East Asia for so many years , and have disrepected many other countries,i feel something will give.The Russians are seeing U.S. weaking amoung others.the United States of North America have let down there defenses and the world knows it. What goes around comes around??
robert, Alberta, Canada
David Walker, among others, has been sounding the alarm for years. Problem is hardly any Americans even know who he is. What Mr. Walker exposes is the incredible brainwashing that has taken place among most Americans. We are the victims of a large effective propaganda campaign that has made us believe us that debt is never a bad thing and that the way you earn money is through borrowing and leverage, that in tandem with the continuing debasement of the USD that only encourages the behavior further. When the USD really starts sliding, our government will convice us that it's good and we must all sacrifice and most Americans will willingly fall in line and never know what hit them. This is how the system works. Americans they're different. What we are is clueless.
christo, San Francisco,
I was thinking how nice it would be if we went back to gold and silver coins for the U S currency. Then I thought it would be great if every country did the same. A 1 oz gold coin is a 1 oz gold coin no matter what picture or flag they stamped on it. In thinking about the Amero, I think it is a good thing because it would bail out America for another 100 years. (I also own a lot of gold coins)
Robert Copeland, Carmel, In, USA
I live in NYC, and I can confirm that inflation is now raging on all essential items, food, utilities and clothing have sky-rocketed over the last year, typical of a devalued currency in a country that imports most goods. Retailers are closing up shop on virtually every street as everyone has had to radically pull back on expenses, killing local, small business. Meanwhile all we hear is the steady drumbeat of 'good' economic news: unemployment is low, inflation is low, the housing market will soon be back on top, etc.
And yet, everyone is being laid off, or expecting to be, people are beginning to offer anything to get rid of the house they purchased before the adjustable rate mortgage resets, and I'm seeing people with phd.'s applying for jobs in my child care business that pay less than $10 an hour.
GC, New York City, N.Y., USA
Finally, someone has woken up to the years of spending beyond their means. US500B for Iraq war and still counting but the FED is still printing money. So blame others for your own doing which would mean depreciating USD means less to pay for all your debt. Gold is the currency of the future when fiat money becomes the value which the dollar is printed....
thang tan chong, kuala lumpur, malaysia
So how long before we see a story about the Amero in the FT?
Bill Jones , London ,
Oh really...that this has been just realised is beyond belief!
And still China sells ever cheaper stuff to Americans and still the chinese stick even more dollars under their mattress'. Sooner or later thery will start selling their dollars that may have started today with the £10 billion Barclays deal.
Steve Byrne, Christchurch, UK
Yes indeed, America's penchant for printing greenbacks and tapping into the world's savings and export surpluses has resulted in this bizzare situation where the US is now a dollar deficit country; the world's great debtor nation with its intractable trade deficits and, federal government debt, has given rise to an increasingly pariah currency. Ironic is it not that the worlds 'richest' nation is kept afloat by massive lending from the East Asian central banks.
However, given the beating the dollar is taking on the forex markets those holding dollars in their foreign currency reserves - China and Japan - are sitting on a mountain of depreciating dollar denominated assets . Normally when this happens holders of weak currencies diversify into more reliable ones like the euro and yen. But if they do that they will only accelerate the dollar's inexorable decline seeing the foreign reserves plummet. Sooner or later, something has to give. A dollar collapse looks much on the cards.
F V Lee, London, UK
By decades of overspending, made possible by the fiat money system since 1971, Americans have simply asked to get into these circumstances. But as the point nears that the debt burden has grown so big that it can't be serviced any longer, the Fed might do what the Japanese have refused to do so far, monetize the debt. If, the US will do this saying it was made necessary in its war against terrorism. Well, at the end of its term, Bush looks more like a stand-up comedian than like a President.
Make no mistake, if only half of this will happen, it will plunge the whole world into chaos and deep depression for many years.
Herman Degenhart, Amsterdam, Netherlands/Holland