Tom Bawden in New York
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The fallout from mortgage woes in the United States continued yesterday as the country’s biggest housebuilder reported an unexpected loss and made a gloomy forecast in the face of mounting evidence that the housing crisis will ricochet across the economy.
Lennar reported a dramatic swing in its fortunes, as it announced a $244.2 million (£122 million) loss for the second quarter, down from a $324.7 million profit the year before.
The group heaped further disappointment on its investors, revealing that its average house price fell by 7.5 per cent to $298,000 for the period.
Stuart Miller, the chief executive of Lennar, said: “As we look to our third quarter and the remainder of 2007, we continue to see weak, and perhaps deteriorating, market conditions. We currently expect to be in a loss position in our third quarter.”
House prices have suffered as a jump in defaults among high-risk sub-prime borrowers has combined with Federal Reserve interest-rate increases to push the average rate for a 30-year mortgage up to 6.60 per cent, reducing demand for properties.
The surge in sub-prime defaults has escalated after lenders extended mortgages to people with increasingly weak credit ratings at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 on the basis that climbing house prices would allow them to remortgage their property to meet repayments if necessary.
Lennar’s declining fortunes resonated with the industry as a whole, as the Commerce Department reported yesterday that purchases of new homes across the United States fell by 1.6 per cent in May, while their median price fell by 0.9 per cent from the year before, to $236,100.
That information came only a day after the National Association of Realtors revealed that sales of previously owned homes fell to their lowest level in four years and said that the median US house price was on course for its first decline since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
The bad news on the US housing market has heightened fears that the slump could harm the broader economy. Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, said: “House prices are at the root of everything. Not only do the borrowers and lenders lose when defaults rise and house prices decline, but interest rates rise, so consumer and corporate spending are hit, corporate profits go down and the economy suffers.”
Ethan Harris, the chief US economist for Lehman Brothers, said: “There is no doubt that the sub-prime problems are extending the housing recession, which would otherwise be over.
“Instead, sub-prime mortgages are changing the real economy. They are making it harder for companies to borrow money to invest and for buyout firms to finance deals. This, in turn, is hitting the stock markets.”
Hard to bear
— The near-collapse last week of two Bear Stearns hedge funds with significant exposure to sub-prime mortgages has heightened fears that fallout could be widespread
— Bear Stearns has agreed to inject $3.2 billion (£1.6 billion) into one of the funds, in the biggest hedge fund bailout since Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998
— Guy Moszkowski, the Merrill Lynch analyst, said Bear Stearns had not faced a “situation of this magnitude” in two decades as a public company
— The housing slide is hitting consumer confidence. The Conference Board index of sentiment for June fell to a ten-month low. Economists fear rising mortgage costs and falling house prices will restrict consumer spending
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If only we were paying $4 per US gallon for gasoline...we pay approx 98 pence per litre -- when converted to US dollars this works out to be $7.50 per US gallon.
Kathleen, West Sussex, UK
it seems bizarr that they continue to build new homes when they have over 4 million new homes unsold
surely all new home building should be stopped till they have sold the stock or existing prices will continue to weaken
mike keary, paisley,
In the US they will probably need to learn to live without their car as they will here Kenneth. We catch (generally) poor public transport to work here and it doesn't really matter about travel to work - in fact many London people pride themselves on how long they can stay at work during the day not by the mental balance / health of their children (and anybody unfortunate enough to work under them if they are promotable which is questionable)and getting home early - so travel means very little here, it will purely be that any hous price falls are due to the overborrowing.
Pete Balchin, Solicitor, Bristol, uk
Martin,
you probably do not travel much, certainly too busy cleaning your BTL.
US gasoline price went from $1/gallon in 2000 to close to $4 this summer... if that is not an increase
Michele, Richmond,
Can I just congratulate Kenneth B. Smith of Wilmington, Delaware, for the funniest post I've seen in a long time. Exorbitant price of gasoline in the USA - stop it, you're killing me.
Martin Gerrard, London,
Of course, it could never happen here ...
Jo , Cambridgeshire, UK
Atten: Tom Bawden. Re: Your colum on House Building, dated 6-26-07. The basic cause of falling house prices can be traced to the exorbitant price of gasoline at the pumps. When a home owner can't afford to pay for his transportation to work each day, he sells his home for whatever he can get, and moves into a rental unit close to his employment. This has a cascading affect, as the homes that are dumped on the market are loss leaders in comparison to new homes.
Kenneth B. Smith, Wilmington, U.S./ Delaware