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As telecoms executives browse the latest video-enabled, rhinestone-encrusted mobiles at the 3GSM Conference in Barcelona, many will have just one thought on their mind: most of the world's population has never made a telephone call.
Telecoms companies are banking on that changing. They hope that demand for basic services in developing countries will drive growth, as more sophisticated technologies designed for western consumers misfire.
Despite a flurry of high-profile 3G announcements, there remain doubts that the technology – designed to deliver services such as video content – will recoup the billions invested in it.
In contrast, the developing world remains a massively attractive potential market. The Development Bank of Southern Africa claimed last year that only 51 million of the 1 billion people in Africa were mobile phone users.
Speaking in Barcelona today, Arun Sarin, the chairman of Vodafone Group, said the company has "a very good future" in regions such as Asia and eastern Europe.
In the more mature markets of western Europe and the United States, where intense competition has driven down profit margins, growth will only be achieved by investing in new services, such as 3G, broadband and entertainment, he added.
Vodafone has spent £5.1 billion in the past financial year alone marketing its 3G network.
Meanwhile, basic telecoms services that can be used to support economic development are seen as a key tool in the battle against poverty. Global penetration of telecoms services stands at around 30 per cent, according to industry estimates. The United Nations wants that figure to reach 50 per cent by 2015 as part of its anti-poverty Millennium Goals.
There are signs that mobile use is increasing. Bharti Enterprises, a leading player in the Indian market, has said India alone could add 150 million subscribers by 2010. The company has introduced cheap calls – costing around one-tenth of the price of calls in the United States – relying on massive volumes to drive profits.
Worldwide, after the 2 billion mobile phone user level was surpassed at the end of last year, equipment manufacturers have forecast the 3 billion user mark would be reached between 2008-2010.
More than 31,000 new clients are signing up on average for mobile services each day in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa and South Korea, according to Ron Garriques, the head of Motorola’s mobile phone division.
Handset makers are tailoring their ranges accordingly. While In the West, the trend has been towards packing more functions on pricier phones, last year Motorola won a tender from the GSM association of leading mobile operators with a low-price model that costs around £20.
Have your say on the future of telecoms here.
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