The President rejected the Kyoto Protocol — which called for a US reduction of 7 per cent on 1990 levels by 2012 — as “fatally flawed” and likely to damage American industry.

But José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President, will arrive at the White House for talks in an optimistic mood and set out his proposals for introducing a higher target.

He is expected to repeat the dire warnings of economic disaster that were made in the Stern report last year. An EU study that will be published this week will paint an apocalyptic picture of thousands more people being killed because of climate change within a decade.

Mr Barroso will emphasise that the discovery of alternatives to fossil fuels would protect the US against long-term supply uncertainty from the Middle East and Russia.

European officials admit that the target of 30 per cent emission cuts for all developed nations is ambitious. But they have been encouraged by recent signs in Washington.

The new Democratic leadership of Congress has promised to put global warming at the top of its agenda. Barbara Boxer, the new chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, is among those who are pressing for the first US-wide legislation to cut carbon emissions. Her Republican predecessor, Jim Inhofe, described global warming as the “greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people”.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Governor of California, signed an agreement with Tony Blair last year to develop new technologies to combat climate change. California, along with seven northeastern states, has introduced its own Kyoto-style targets to cut emissions by 25 per cent by 2020. US companies have also expressed interest in “carbon-trading”, which would allow permits for producing greenhouse gases to be bought and sold on global commodity markets.

Mr Bush has softened his once-sceptical language on climate change. He has said repeatedly that he now accepts that it is a serious problem. EU officials were heartened by the President’s State of the Union address last year, in which he stated that the US was “addicted to oil” and should “move beyond a petroleum-based economy”.

There has been steady pressure on the US Administration from Mr Blair, who held face-to-face talks with Senator Boxer before Christmas. In a recent interview, the Prime Minister said that Mr Bush had made a “pretty bold” statement in the State of the Union address which he should follow up with “a framework that can help cure that addiction”.

The European Commission leader is seeking agreement on a common position in negotiations for a new global warming treaty. The 30 per cent target has yet to be agreed by EU member states and is expected to be formally proposed by the European Commission on Wednesday.

A source close to Mr Barroso said: “The US did not sign up to Kyoto but has now recognised that climate change is happening. The Stern report makes the economic case.”

Heat is on

The North Sea Coast will become the new Riviera by 2070, a climate change report for the European Commission will claim on Wednesday. It will say that a temperature rise of 3C (5.4F) in southern Europe would cause 87,000 extra deaths a year

Source: European Commission

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