Will Romania and Bulgaria turn into Spain now that they are in the European Union? That has been their dream of transformation as they have scraped over the hurdles to get into the club. “We might even do as well as Ireland,” said one Romanian official, wistful about emulating that success. Dream on, you might say.

That is not to deny Romania and Bulgaria credit for their own rapid transformation since the end of the Soviet Union. But they are much poorer than Spain or Ireland were when they joined the EU. They lack the institutions which those countries had at that point.

And Spain and Ireland joined an exclusive club of rich countries. The latest two enter a much looser group, in which nearly half the members are much poorer than the others. Even if the EU’s appetite for paying subsidies holds up, it has to be spread over more contenders.

The powerful attraction of the dream is obvious — but its shortcomings should be too. When Spain entered the EU in 1986 (with Portugal, which joined at the same time, taking the number of members to 12), its economy, per person, was 70 per cent of the group’s average. Ten years later, when the club had swelled to include Austria, Finland and Sweden, Spain’s gross domestic product per head was still about two thirds of the average of the 15 members: €12,400, compared with an EU average of €18,900. Ireland’s was €16,100, and the UK’s €16,200 (according to Eurostat, the EU’s statistics body).

The really dramatic transformation has happened only in the past decade. Spain’s GDP per person is now 80 per cent of the average of those 15 longstanding members, which is projected to be €27,600 (£18,500) per person for 2006.

But Ireland has eclipsed that performance, with GDP per head of €40,900, well ahead of the UK’s €31,200.

Romania and Bulgaria are far behind, with GDP per head of less than a sixth of the average of the EU 15 or, adjusting to reflect the much lower prices of goods there, still just a third of the EU 15.

This is a much worse position than Spain’s when it joined — nor can Romania and Bulgaria count on two decades of bountiful subsidies. The EU estimates that in 2007, Romania will receive €2.5 billion in aid (not including farming subsidies), and will be obliged also to contribute €1 billion back to the EU budget. That is a sum which its €55 billion economy will initially struggle to absorb. For its part, Bulgaria will receive €1 billion and return €324 million, compared with its GDP of €19 billion.

The two countries have to work out what to spend this on and avoid corrupt diversion of the cash. They will have to mount a sophisticated argument that the subsidies should continue, at a time when the tolerance of the richer members is fading.

Some Romanians and Bulgarians have taken the shortcut to Spain, and simply moved there to find work in the still booming economy. According to official figures, there were nearly 200,000 Romanians living in Spain legally last year, the fourth biggest immigrant group, but some estimates say that the total is more than half a million, and that they are the largest foreign community in Spain.

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