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Soaring public disgust at China’s shoddily-built “tofu” schools could cost the country $60 billion (£30 billion) in “quake-proofing” the country – half as much again as the bill for hosting the Beijing Olympics.
The calculation, made by analysts at Société Générale, came with a warning that this month's earthquake would have a “profound impact” on China’s investment spending.
The sum forecast by the French bank is needed to bring public buildings up to legal quake-proof standards and sharply increases the economic damage expected from the Sichuan earthquake.
Analysts believe that the Chinese Government may be forced to quell public dismay at what amounts to over a decade’s worth of questionable building standards in public infrastructure and construction.
“As public anger and grief grows, the Government will most probably be forced into a nationwide audit of all public structures,” Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Société Générale, said.
Mr Maguire said he believed the Chinese authorities would make the reconstruction effort a national review and reinforcement programme, rather than begin a hasty attempt to rebuild Sichuan. “This could more than treble the direct economic loss from the destruction of property to $60 billion,” he told investors yesterday.
Images of the earthquake’s aftermath – played repeatedly on Chinese televisions for the past two weeks – have exposed the costs of rapid economic growth. The glittering new towers of Beijing and Shanghai may meet international quake-proofing standards, but the rules have been more loosely applied in the provinces.
While high quake-proofing standards were introduced by law in 1990 in China, observers say that it is highly unlikely that those codes were consistently followed or enforced outside the largest cities.
Millions of Chinese have now seen images of the father of a girl, who was crushed to death in her classroom, condemn the school as a poorly-built “tofu” structure.
Until last year, local governments were expected to bear half the expense for construction of local schools – a demand on strained provincial coffers that is believed to have led to corner-cutting, collusion with building contractors and widespread use of sub-standard building materials.
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