John Zaracostas in Geneva
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Global trade growth is expected to slow to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent this year but China has overtaken the US as the world's second-biggest exporter, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said yesterday.
Heavily influenced by the turmoil in financial markets and the sharp economic slowdown in leading western economies, global merchandise trade is forecast to rise by 4.5 per cent this year, against last year's 5.5 per cent.
But the WTO gave warning that a stronger slowdown in global economic growth “could cut trade much more sharply, to significantly less” than the projected level of 4.5 per cent.
Dr Patrick Low, WTO chief economist, said that in view of the downside risks, the agency will probably have to revise its projections in the third or fourth quarter of this year.
The turmoil in the financial markets, he said, “has not yet fed through, as it might, in the real economy.”
WTO economists are also sceptical about how long emerging developing countries that have spearheaded global growth “can maintain a strong pace in the face of sluggish demand in major developed markets and rising inflationary pressures.”
In 2007, buoyed by strong performances by dynamic emerging economies such as China. India, Brazil, and Russia, world merchandise trade in value terms increased by 15 per cent to $13.6 trillion (£6.8 trillion).
Emerging countries accounted for more than half of the world's trade growth last year, Mr Low added.
Meanwhile, trade in commercial services, boosted by big increases in transport and travel services, last year increased by 18 per cent to $3.3 trillion, said the WTO.
Another stellar performance by China, which recorded a 26 per cent rise in its merchandise exports to $1.2 trillion, enabled it to surge ahead of the US to be ranked the world's second biggest exporter and is breathing down the neck of top-placed Germany.
The UK's decline in recorded exports of 3 per cent to $436 billion, associated with fraudulent VAT declarations, pushed it down one slot to eighth place behind Italy.
However, the UK retained its position as the world's second largest commercial services exporter, after the US, by registering a 17 per cent increase to $263 billion. Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, said that the turmoil had not so far led to a disruption in global trade but cautioned, “protectionist pressures are building as policymakers seek answers to the problems that confront us.”
He said that the best way to reinforce the global trading system would be to conclude the Doha global trade talks, which were launched in November 2001.
Mr Lamy told senior trade envoys yesterday that with the global economy “in rough waters”, concluding the Doha round “can provide a strong anchor for the world economy.”
Ministers from about 30 leading trading nations, including the EU, the US, Brazil and India, are tentatively expected to meet in Geneva in the second half of next month to try to reach a breakthrough deal to lower barriers to trade in farm products, industrial goods and commercial services. Previous efforts had ended in failure.
Articles from our sister site WSJ.com:
You may be asked to subscribe to read certain articles
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
I wouldn't rely on that 2% of gdp figure. China is very opaque with their figures. Would you be surprised if it for 5 or even ten times that figure?
devin jackson, santa monica, California
China does invest a sizable portion of it profits into its military complex; however, the United States invests a much larger share of its GDP into the military. Currently, the United States spends around $623 billion (or 4.5% of GDP in Official Exchange Rate) on defense which overshadows Chinaâs $65 billion (or 2% of GDP in Official Exchange Rate). The United States has to borrow from China and much of Asia to fund both its current account and trade deficit. So how long will the United States still be able to feed itself?
Robert, Los Angeles, United States
Michael of New York, the US is borrowing a lot of its imaginary profits into its army. Interesting times indeed, but probably not what you imagined.
Sam, Chicago, IL, USA
Jamie, one of the UK's biggest exports in the last decade or so has been oil. I don't know what the current figures are, but I once found a site which gave the UK's top exports by value to France and oil was first or second on the list. One of our top "food" exports is Scotch whisky! Our big manufacturing export is arms equipment, eg. the BAE contracts with Saudi Arabia under investigation. Apart from some big pharmaceutical companies like Glaxo, much of our remaining exports are foreign owned companies manufacturing here, e.g. Nissan. We have gone down the American route of borrowing from the rest of the world to finance a standard of living which hasn't been earned. To finance this we are slowly selling our big companies to foreign owned ones, recent examples being S&N, O2, after which their profits are repatriated to the owner countries and in the long term that makes us poorer. You don't see France, Japan or Germany doing that. At least the USA can feed itself!
Alan, Newcastle,
I'm surprised nobody mentioned anywhere that China is investing a lot of its profits into its army.
Interesting times ahead.
Michael, New York, US
Oil reaches $114 and the majors look for new supply everywhere. As they recently found a new oil field in a few thousand meters down the ocean,someone hast to build the tools to get it up. Then do a litle research and figure where the heart of oil drilling engeneering -export- can be found...Prost!
david, Maastricht,
Tara in London...its the Germans! In 2005 they exported twice as much as we did. More even than the UK and Italy combined. Impressive...
steve, watford, UK,
Germany don't export many consumer goods, but rather high quality, hi tech manufacturing machines and materials.
As a British citizen, I'm jealous of their manufacturing prowess. Simply put, Germany is the most advanced manufacturing economy in the world and all we have is a bunch of cowboys selling debt to each other.
I struggle to understand how the UK is 8th on the export list? What do we actually export other than 'financial services'? Whisky?
Jamie, Halifax, West Yorkshire
Germany... read the article
David, Woking,
Who's the first biggest exporter then??
Tara, London,
Good that the developed nations are not engaging in Trade Wars with emerging economies like what was going on betweeen The EU and The USA even as recently as a decade ago .
Gurumoorthy, Trichy, India
You don't mention in the article that if you remove dangerous and cheaply made export goods from the total, along with illegal weapons and nuclear material bound for terrorists and dictators, and export goods made by children under the age of 12 and labor camp hostages in leg irons, then China ranks at 126 in the world, having jumped ahead of Burkina Faso and Lichtenstein.
Pogue Mahone, Dublin, Ireland
Max from FL, I guess your look-up skills are not very honed, try: http://tse.export.gov/NTDChartDisplay.aspx?UniqueURL=bogabd45u3ygpfukmm1odur2-2008-4-18-5-44-36 to see some US export figures & products.
Peter, DC,
An interesting aside. I was interested in US exports and was innocent enough to google, "top 10 US exports", and actually expected an answer. None was forthcoming, at least in any simple, discernable form. (Thirty years ago, I could have looked for a list and found it in almost any encyclopedia or some other publication). I finally realized that we are exporters of very little in any real volume except for Soy products, (top 'o the list), food, and the rawest of raw materials. Germany, on the other hand, exports some of the best manufactured goods produced anywhere in the world, as do most other "First World" countries. Not good for the US...not good at all. It will drop us to a "Second World" status in quality of life faster than you can say Dubya is a dunce. Suggested study: read the results of Roman Imperial policy on local Italian Industry. Makes for interesting, frightening reading.
Max Cadenhead, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA
UK - the world's second largest commercial services exporter? How is that possible with the high tax and cost of doing business?
Gabriel, Heald Green, UK
Doug, US - How can you 'import to' somewhere? Do you mean from Iran, or export to Iran? Messy.
And surely the Adidas stuff, made in Asia, doesn't count as part of their total?
Jeff , Manchester,
Germany is just one country of the 27 nation EU. Maybe you should rejig the figures and include all the nations. The US and China would be way behind.
Jon Kingsbury, Sodbury, UK
The Germans build some of the best machines in the world, and they sell a lot of them, because other countries are unable to equal the quality and continued innovation which German companies have to offer. If you go the Mint in Washington and look who made the printing press which prints the Dollar you will find that it was made in Germany. Without German machines many economies would grind to a halt. With that much influence it is best not to be too self congratulating. It makes for enemies and the Germans have become pacifists.
jock Isenhardt, Toronto, Canada
Germany is in fact the world's number one exporter - $1.36 trillion in 2007. It has the world's third largest GDP - $3.3 trillion, behind Japan and the USA. It will probably slip to number four in GDP next year and be passed by China. However, remember these numbers are open to interpretation. Currency values fluctuate widely. Also, Purchase Power Parity, which measures the actual "dollar" costs of living in and doing business in a certain country, can be quite extreme.
Steve, Seattle, USA
The reason the German numbers are consistently high (in $$ terms) is because of the type of product they export: high end Industrial machinery, precision equipment, tools, etc as well as large numbers of transport machines, ranging from (very expensive) high speed trains to high end cars, as well as chemicals & raw steel (much in demand). They also export a lot of niche food products, especially to the US. It is difficult for competing countries to capture this market, and lots of other countries need/want the products. China is competing with low end, mass volume products on a huge scale. It may catch up within the next 5 yrs or so, but Germany will be in the top 2-3 for many more years.
F. McKane, Fremont, California, USA
Remember, these exports are based off value, and medical equipment techonology, machining technology, and advanced engineered products are Germany's specialty. In terms of tonnes, China certainly exports the most. In terms of finished goods, it would be the US. Germany leads the way in value of exports.
Chris, Scottsdale, USA/AZ
I expect the rankings are proportional to GDP, not absolute, hence Germany's unexpectedly high position.
Arturo Calzino, Elizabethtown, PA, USA
What about bratwurst and BEER????
scott, York, SC/USA
Germans make a lot of optical stuff and other high level niche products.
doug lominac, virginia beach, usa virginia
Gummy Bears are my favorite German Export. Long Live Haribo!
john, bridgewater, nj usa
Everything that most countries export are manufactured with imported German Machinery.
Nash, Sydney, Australia
I guess Germany imports stuff to it's friends in Iran? I don't recall seeing many German products other than cars.
Doug, Knoxville, USA/TN
Bizarre, how rarely do you see 'Made in Germany' on labels. Apart from some cars maybe and, who knows, Adidas, what does it export??????
Chris Jackson, London,