Nick Hasell: Tempus
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Tuesday’s trading update from Hammerson — and the first from David Atkins, only a month into the job as chief executive — contained little that ought to alarm. The FTSE 100 property developer behind Birmingham’s Bullring and London’s Brent Cross shopping centres flagged the return of confidence to commercial real estate markets, rising UK property valuations and a stabilisation in demand from tenants.
For example, 95.6 per cent of Hammerson’s retail space was let at the end of September, modestly ahead of the 95.2 per cent reported three months earlier. Further, rental income from tenants in administration has fallen to £7 million, from £8.4 million previously. Nor does Mr Atkins, who previously ran the company’s UK operations, seem intent on taking Hammerson in a radically different direction. He believes that Hammerson is exposed to the right sectors — shopping centres, out-of-town retail parks and London offices — and operates in broadly the right territories (two fifths of its portfolio is in France).
If there was a change of emphasis, it was contained in Hammerson’s intention to turn from seller to buyer. Having disposed of £700 million of properties over the past few months — to avoid the need to tap investors beyond the £584 million it raised through February’s right issue — the company is looking to add to its portfolio and has joined the bidding for Glasgow’s Silverburn shopping centre. Hammerson is also restarting its development activity, albeit modestly, with a £30 million retail project in Paris earmarked for early next year. However, its new-build plans for Britain remain on ice. Mr Atkins also remains cautious on the medium-term outlook, citing the high level of property debt on both sides of the Channel that needs to be refinanced over the next two years.
The broader question is over what extent Hammerson’s interests in France, where valuations have not fallen as sharply as Britain, will begin to hold it back relative to its more domestically focused peers. One quarter of its rents in Paris are linked to indices of construction costs, which dictate a 4.5 per cent fall in income from that portion of its portfolio next year. But Hammerson has £750 million of undrawn banking facilities and benefits from much of its vacant space coming from newer, more attractive developments, which should be easier to fill.
The shares have risen 41 per cent since Tempus advised investors to take up their rights. At 390½p, at par with estimated net asset value, and a discount to its large-cap peers, hold.
New Britain Palm Oil
New Britain is not a political slogan but an island in the Pacific that is part of Papua New Guinea — and where the plantations of the largest London-listed producer of palm oil can be found.
Yesterday’s third-quarter results from New Britain Palm Oil (NBPO), which is valued at more than £500 million, show that its ties with the old Britain are getting stronger. The company is on course to open its first refinery on these shores, in Liverpool, in April. NBPO is already vertically integrated — it breeds seeds, plants trees and processes palm oil itself — but this new facility will enable it to capture the margins it loses from using rival refiners in Europe, its biggest market.
A dedicated refinery will also allow NBPO to ensure that its oil, which is produced from sustainable sources, is traceable from start to finish. That is important, given the premium prices commanded by sustainable oil and NBPO’s success to date in signing up food producers on the strength of its sustainable credentials.
Over the past few weeks, it has struck a five-year supply deal with Ferrero, the Italian confectioner, and a two-year agreement with United Biscuits, the owner of McVitie’s. Of course, the direction of palm oil prices, which have halved from last year’s peak, remain key. However, tighter access to funding has slowed the rate of new plantation developments in Indonesia and Malaysia, while the long-term demand for palm oil, principally as a cooking oil, from increasing prosperity and population growth in Asia remains intact.
At 362½p, or 11 times next year’s earnings, and yielding 4.5 per cent, the shares are a “buy”.
Blinkx
Blinkx — and you’ll miss it. Shares in the AIM-listed video search engine developer have fluttered steadily lower since it was spun off from Autonomy, its FTSE 100 parent — sliding down nearly two thirds in the space of two years. At yesterday’s stock market value of less than £50 million, it is now of too small a size to interest many professional investors.
Neither has the demerged company done much to establish its autonomy from Autonomy. With Blinkx still racking up losses — it is not forecast to produce a full-year pre-tax profit until 2011 — it tapped its parent, which retains a 19 per cent stake, yesterday for additional cash.
True, there as signs of underlying progress. At $13.1 million, revenues in the six months to September 30, all of which are derived from online advertising, have doubled year-on-year. Over that time, Blinkx’s daily video search rate has more than doubled to 17.4 million, it has added 140 new partners (its technology powers the new BBC Democracy Live website) and it now ranks among the top ten video sites. It is also a survivor at a time when rivals, such as the British division of Joost, the online video specialist, have gone into receivership.
But with Blinkx still very much in Autonomy’s shadow, it is hard to see what will drive the shares higher from here, short of Autonomy conceding that demerger has not worked and buying the company back again. At 17½p, or 13 times 2011 earnings, pass.
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