Peter Stiff: Market report
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The FTSE rose almost 2 per cent yesterday but Thomas Cook missed out on the gains amid further uncertainty about its ownership.
Shares in the holiday group fell 1¼p to 215¾p after lenders to Arcandor, its majority German shareholder, said that they expected to sell the 43.9 per cent stake in the British company over which they have control as security for its loans.
Royal Bank of Scotland, Bayern LB and Commerzbank said they were considering their options in regards to the stake and that the most likely outcome would involve a market placing, off-market sales or some combination of the two. They added that as yet no course of action has been determined.
Ivor Jones, an analyst at Evolution, said that while the disposal of Arcandor’s stake in the company was widely expected by the market — the German group filed for insolvency in June after being in financial difficulties for some time — the uncertainty is now whether it is good or bad news.
Mr Jones reckons that while optimists think that the sale could trigger a takeover at a premium, he thought it was more likely that the stake would cause an overhang in the market and indigestion once it was placed.
As such, he added that his target price of 180p and a “sell” rating on the stock was based on what he saw as fairly unattractive fundamentals as opposed to uncertainty over corporate ownership.
Elsewhere in the holiday sector, TUI Travel rose 1p to 223¼p after getting a nudge from Morgan Stanley. The broker said that it had surveyed 1,000 UK adults about their leisure travel spending and that the results had helped support the argument that demand for main holidays should remain resilient, despite the economic environment.
It has TUI as its top pick amongst the tour operators and thinks resilience of demand and additional capacity cuts in 2010 should ensure the supply and demand balance remains in kilter, with merger synergies and cost reductions also helping margins.
Overall, the FTSE 100 index broke through the key 4,600-point level, rising 84.08 points to 4,631.61, amid several better-than-expected corporate updates.
BT Group was the biggest riser, up 14.2p to 126.9p, after the telecoms group beat expectations with its first- quarter results.
Wolseley, the heating and plumbing group, was a close second, gaining 121p to £13.11, after first-half profits at its peer Travis Perkins, the FTSE 250’s biggest gainer, hit the top end of City forecasts. Travis Perkins shares rose 95p to 795p.
The mining sector also made a hefty contribution to the gains, with Antofagasta rising 54p to 762½p and Rio Tinto up 166p to £24.62 after Nomura said it expected copper prices to retest highs over the next two years, with a shortage of supply this year and next.
Reed Elsevier was the biggest faller, down 60.2p to 420p, after the events and publishing group launched an £824 million placing and said it no longer expected growth this year on a constant currency basis.
• New York: Wall Street stocks rallied as a batch of healthy corporate earnings and a drop in the number of jobless claims boosted hopes of an economic recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 83.74 points, almost 1 per cent, at 9,154.46.
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